The NHL playoff picture is starting to crystalize and there isn't a single matchup between two teams currently in a postseason position on Thursday's schedule. Still, there are a number of clubs in need of stringing some wins together, so read on for sports betting analyst Neil Parker's top NHL picks based on the best NHL odds.
There aren't many tape-measuring matchups Thursday, and it's also a unique time of the season with the All-Star break in the rearview and the trade deadline still a couple weeks ahead.
We've also seen plenty of big upsets over the past week-plus, including the Arizona Coyotes taking down the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Detroit Red Wings topping the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday.
The marquee matchup on Thursday's slate is between the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals, but it definitely lac ks some star power with Washington leading scorer Alex Ovechkin away from the team.
Here are our best NHL picks for Thursday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all our NHL picks.
Thursday's NHL schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Montreal Canadiens (+340) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-425)
- Winnipeg Jets (-205) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (+175)
- Florida Panthers (-120) vs. Washington Capitals (+100)
- Boston Bruins (-180) vs. Nashville Predators (+155)
- Detroit Red Wings (+235) vs. Calgary Flames (-280)
- New Jersey Devils (-150) vs. St. Louis Blues (+130)
- Philadelphia Flyers (+170) vs. Seattle Kraken (-200)
- San Jose Sharks (+165) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-195)
Thursday's NHL best bets
- Moneyline parlay: Jets + Flames (+104 via DraftKings) ????
- Regulation win: Panthers vs. Capitals (+136 via FanDuel) ???
- Team total: Sharks Under 2.5 goals in regu lation (-104 via FanDuel) ??
- Prop: Andrei Svechnikov anytime goal (+198 via FanDuel) ????
Thursday's NHL top picks
Simply put, I'm banking on Winnipeg netminder Connor Hellebuyck and the superior Jets roster handling the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets. Hellebuyck ranks second in the league in goals saved above average while boasting a high-end .924 save percentage. Winnipeg ranks fifth in five-on-five Corsi For percentage when adjusted for score and venue through 20 games since the holiday layoff.
The Jets have also seen multiple regulars return from injuries during the highlighted stretch, and for comparison, Columbus ranks fourth-last in five-on-five CF% and second-last in expected goals for percentage when adjusted for score and venue during the same span.
In the parlay nightcap, Detroit is playing its second road game in consecutive nights following a 5-4 shootout win over the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday. It was a lucky result, as Edmonton caved in Detroit and drove five-on-five possession with a 72.6 CF% and 76.8 xGF%.
Calgary has been trending in the right direction in the new year with the second-highest CF% and third-highest xGF% at five-on-five in the league. Water finds its level Thursday, and the Flames dominate possession and create more scoring chances to take care of the Red Wings.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| +104 ?? | +100 | +101 | +100 | -101 ?? |
The only thing preventing this from being a five-star play is the lack of advantage we're landing by shopping for the best number. I'm confident in the two superior teams taking care of business Thursday.
Florida and Washington are middling teams in the standings and both competing for a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. The major difference Thursday is the Capitals hit the ice without their captain and leading scorer, and they've already been playing without their No. 1 defenseman since returning from the holiday break.
Washington has treaded water with a 9-9-2 record while top-blueliner John Carlson (face) has been out of the lineup, but I'm skeptical about the immediate outlook without Ovechkin for the Caps.
Additionally, Florida has underachieved this season relative to their underlying metri cs. The Cats rank fourth in Corsi For percentage and seventh in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five when adjusted for score and venue.
I like this spot for Florida.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| +120 | +136 ?? | +125 | +117 ?? | +120 |
We're landing a positive expected value of 9% with the FanDuel odds over the number available through Caesars. If there was a larger edge available in the odds, I'd make this a four-star recommendation.
Vegas has rolled off three commanding wins with just four total goals allowed out of the All-Star Break. The Golden Knights also rank fifth-lowest in expected goals against while surrendering the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five on home ice.
More importantly, the Vegas blueline is fully healthy for the first time in months, which helps mitigate the key losses of winger Mark Stone (back) and No. 1 netminder Logan Thompson (lower body).
While the Sharks have been a dangerous road team, I view their fifth-ranked 9.9 team shooting percentage at five-on-five as an un sustainably high mark and expect statistical correction to begin charging a highway toll.
It's also worth noting the Golden Knights have taken the fewest minor penalties in the league at five-on-five, which should further limit San Jose's quality scoring opportunities Thursday.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| -120 ?? | -104 ?? | N/A | N/A | N/A |
I graded this as a two-star nod because the expected negative regression ahead of the Sharks isn't a lock to kick in Thursday, and there wasn't a huge edge in the available odds.
Additionally, betting this total in regulation limits the offerings. Both Caesars and BetMGM have the Sharks Under 2.5 goals respectively trading at -101 and -105 odds, but that also includes overtime and the shootout.
I'm happy to eat three cents to remove extra time from the equation in this case. When comparing the two 60-minute offerings from DraftKings and FanDuel, the -104 odds present a positive expected value of 7%.
The Carolina winger has gone 17 consecutive games without finding the back of the net despite leading the 'Canes in shots, attempts and scoring chances. Additionally, his 5.81 expected goals during the stretc h rank third on the team.
Svechnikov was set for a dry spell after posting a 17.0 shooting percentage through the first 36 games of the season, but now the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction.
Montreal is also ripe for a letdown showing after rolling off three consecutive wins out of the All-Star break. An away date with the Hurricanes is a daunting matchup, and the Habs have allowed the most expected goals per 60 minutes on the road.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| +125 | +198 ?? | +125 | +160 | +125 |
The odds available through FanDuel are the primary reason for this four-star recommendation. Compared to the more widely available +125 number, we're landing a positive expected value of 32% with the +198 price.
NHL Best Bets made 2/16/2023 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
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