NHL MVP: Who will win the Conn Smythe Trophy?
After three incredible rounds of postseason hockey, the Vegas Golden Knights or the Florida Panthers will be crowned Stanley Cup champions for the first time in franchise history. But which player will be named the MVP? There are several contenders for the Conn Smythe Trophy, but let’s split them into frontrunners and fringe candidates and rank them by their betting value.
Frontrunners
The Conn Smythe Trophy, like most of the other awards, is voted on by the writers, so the narrative matters. And, according to polls conducted by ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, the narrative favors Matthew Tkachuk right now, as he has garnered more first-place votes. Tkachuk leads all players with 21 points, and four out of his nine goals have been game winners. The Panthers have scored 75 percent of the goals with him on the ice at five-on-five, and his underlying metrics are elite. Florida has owned 60 percent of the shots and 58 percent of the expected goals with Tkachuk on the ice at five-on-five.
The Panthers were a soft team before Tkachuk arrived, and he has been doing it all, both offensively and defensively in the playoffs with a lot of swagger. Voters will put a lot of stock into how he has performed in the clutch, and the legendary way in which he has carried himself throughout the playoffs. Tkachuk has been the spokesperson for the team since the beginning of the playoffs, and when you think of Panthers’ hockey, you think of him.
The consensus is that if the Vegas Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup, Jack Eichel is the player that will most likely be named MVP. He leads Vegas in points, but not by a wide margin, and that leaves the door open for another player to outshine him in the Final. His numbers don’t stand out, and he hasn’t done as much to separate himself from his teammates the way Tkachuk has, but he’s been the most consistent scorer on his team.