NFL Week 12 best bets
Welcome to Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Friday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
Baltimore Ravens (-4, 43.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Danny Burke: People tend to forget how hard it is to consistently win in the NFL. Did the Ravens look pretty in their win, this past Sunday, against the Panthers? No, of course not. But they still found a way and it still counts the same in the win column. Also, let’s not fail to neglect that, heading into their bye week, Baltimore was on a three-game winning streak. So the off time put a halt on their momentum. And, typically, when teams are riding a hot streak into a hiatus, they come out a tad bit sloppy in their next spot. That’s all that was for the Ravens in their sloppy dub. Now that they’ve gotten that rust out from under them, they get to play at Jacksonville, against a Jags team that finds themselves losing their last six out of seven games and off a bye week of their own.
Furthermore, Baltimore has had a lot of success on the road this year winning straight up and against the spread in four out of five of those spots. Currently you can find Baltimore laying three and a half to four points. John Harbaugh’s crew has managed to cover that number in every win, with the exception of two games that ended in wins, but failed as covers against division opponents. The Ravens have an average winning margin of 7.1 points. Conversely, the Jags, in each of their losses, have lost by at least four or more points in each game. Jacksonville has an average losing margin of 6.9 points.
To put it plain and simple, the Ravens are too explosive offensively. Lamar Jackson will take advantage against this Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st against the pass according to DVOA. Also, you can expect second year quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is seemingly plateauing since his promising rookie year, to continue to underperform and probably toss another costly red zone interception.
Play: Ravens -3.5
Denver Broncos (-2.5, 35) at Carolina Panthers
Adam Burke: It would take a lot for Sam Darnold to play worse than Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker. He’ll get his first action of the season on Sunday following a group of quarterbacks that has posted a 58.4% completion rate and a 9/10 TD/INT ratio. The Panthers are averaging just 191.2 passing yards as a team and 4.84 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. The bar is tremendously low in Carolina.
It shouldn’t take much for the Panthers to keep this game close. They have a league average defense and should find a little bit more offense because it can’t get any worse. They’re going up against a Broncos team that has only scored 14.7 points per game. Somehow Nathaniel Hackett is still gainfully employed after the most recent debacle against the Raiders and this is a rare week where the Panthers aren’t at a disadvantage with interim head coach Steve Wilks.
The Broncos have topped out at 23 points and have scored more than 16 one other time. Giving the Panthers eight points in a game with a total of 36 against an opponent that doesn’t light up the scoreboard at all makes sense, even if Darnold doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. It’s also an early kickoff across the country for an offense that is sluggish to begin with, plus KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy didn’t practice on Wednesday.
We’re getting the key numbers of 3 and 7, which is extremely valuable. Put the Panthers in a teaser with the Titans.
Pick: Panthers +8 / Titans +8 6-point teaser
Adam Burke: The Broncos have a pretty stout defense, but that unit has been clearly better against the pass than the run. Given the teams that are on the schedule twice in the AFC West, that is a really good thing, but given the opponent on Sunday, it may not be as helpful. With Sam Darnold set to get the start for the Panthers, a steady diet of D’Onta Foreman seems to make sense.
Foreman’s rushing yards prop line is 57.5 with a little bit of over juice, but the Panthers are unlikely to let Darnold throw it around the yard and that isn’t the best strategy anyway. Denver is fourth in Dropback EPA against and second in Passing Success Rate against. On the flip side, the Broncos are only 14th in Rushing EPA against and 11th in Rushing Success Rate against. It isn’t the biggest of differences, but with the limitations of Darnold and the likely workload for Foreman, who has gone over 100 yards in three of the last five games, this game lines up for a strong performance.
Pick: D’Onta Foreman Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4, 42)
Adam Burke: The Falcons draw a really tough assignment on Sunday because the Commanders own one of the league’s top rush defenses. Washington ranks third in Rush EPA against and fourth in Rushing Success Rate against. For a Falcons team that tries to do most of its damage on the ground, this may be the week where Arthur Smith needs to rely a bit more on Marcus Mariota.
Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 158.5, which is about 12 yards below his season average. Given the stinginess of the Commanders up front against the run, this is the type of game where Mariota is going to be asked to do a little bit more. The Falcons haven’t faced a ton of great rush defenses to this point, but this one is and Mariota’s workload is likely to be a bit higher than what we’ve seen in other games. Given that his season average is north of this number and the matchup is far from favorable for Atlanta’s style, this one is worth a look.
Pick: Marcus Mariota Over 158.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 43) at Cleveland Browns
Adam Burke: This week represents the last week with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback of the Browns. The 3-7 start is hardly his fault, as he’s played better than most expected and has actually led a passing attack that ranks ninth in Dropback EPA and 12th in Dropback Success Rate. Obviously the running game is exceptional and has been all season, but Brissett has done an extremely admirable job.
Furthermore, he seems to be well-liked by his teammates and he’s been saying all the right things in the lead-up to the inevitable Deshaun Watson takeover. At this point, he’s playing for a starting gig somewhere else next season and the rest of the offense is going to give him as strong of a push as possible this week against the Buccaneers. But, that emotional appeal isn’t the only reason to like the Browns this week.
The Tampa Bay running game stinks. The Bucs are dead last in Rush EPA and 29th in Rushing Success Rate. Those two things are a bad combination when 20 mph sustained winds and 30 mph gusts are expected in Cleveland this Sunday. The Browns got boned out of a game in bad weather that they could have won last week, but now may get one back in their favor this week.
The Bucs are eighth in Dropback EPA and 10th in Dropback Success Rate on defense, but 21st in Rush EPA and 13th in Rushing Success Rate against. Their defense has been more successful against the pass than the run. On a day when throwing the ball is going to be very difficult, the Browns should find success, even with a really banged-up offensive line.
Now that this line has moved to 3.5, the Browns look like a reasonable play with a low-scoring expectation and conditions much more conducive to their offensive style.
Pick: Browns +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 42.5) at Tennessee Titans
Adam Burke: Like many others, I’m not a huge believer in the Titans. However, there are a lot of things to like about their matchup against the Bengals this week. For starters, there is a pretty clear coaching mismatch here between Mike Vrabel and Zac Taylor that favors the slight home underdog. Second, there may be some breezy conditions that will hurt a Bengals offense that passes more than the Titans.
That huge disparity in pass attempts is worth mentioning. The Bengals have 376 pass attempts to 241 for the Titans. You would expect to see more than a 0.4 yards per play difference between the two teams with how much the Titans like to run and with how much easier it is to get chunk plays through the air. The offensive line woes and the 34 sacks have a lot to do with that.
On Sunday, the Titans bring a defense that ranks 10th in Pressure% and 10th in sacks against a Bengals team that has had major problems protecting Joe Burrow. Furthermore, the Titans have the fourth-lowest Blitz% in the league, so they are getting pressure without sending extra rushers.
Maybe the Titans don’t win, but they are an ideal team to throw into a six-point teaser and take up from +2 to +8. They haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game since Week 3 and play a lot of tight games. Getting the six-point boost in the line should pay off here.