It is Week 11 of the NFL season, and the playoff picture is beginning to crystalize.' We can clearly delineate playoff team's vs teams trying to play spoiler. There are a few key games that stand out to me for Sunday: Jets vs Patriots, Browns vs Bills, and Cowboys vs Vikings. Luckily for us, betting player props is absolved from playoff implications. Many players have incentive ridden deals that ensure they're still giving maximum effort for yards, catches, and touchdowns. Let's look at our Sunday slate!
Check out our Week 11 analysis here.
Nico Collins Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
A mid-season groin injury slightly derailed Nico Collins hottest start to his young career, but he returned in Week 10 to 10 targets and 5 receptions for 49 yards. The Commanders are coming off a huge upset Monday night and you can make the case that short week + come down could impact their play this Sunday vs Houston. Washington ranks 31st overall in DVOA against WR2s (63.9 YPG) so this is a great matchup for Collins. He's averaging 15.4 yards per reception and aDOT of 13.1, which will help immensely as the Commanders rank 26th overall in DVOA on Deep passes, but more importantly, they rank 30th in passes to the Deep Left. Collins has lined up as the LWR in every game except one. This could be a breakout game for Collins and is an alt-line candidate. I would comfortably play an alt-line up to 60+. 1.5U