NFL Week 13 begins with the Buffalo Bills visiting the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video. Our NFL expert, Clevta, has a best bet and predictions for the game.
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Clevta’s Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots best bet: Bills -4.5 (-110)
The Bills come into this game having not covered in 5 straight. They did get a bit unlucky in not covering against Cleveland when the Browns scored on a meaningless final drive and then against Minnesota when the Vikings posted an incredible 4th-quarter comeback.
Let’s be honest; the Bills lines have been a bit inflated in general leading to this streak but this is the game that I believe the market has overreacted in the opposite direction. Let's look at this with a recent market comparison for context. In Week 8 the Jets were +3 at home against New England and in Week 9 they closed at +10.5 at home against Buffalo. Of course, a few things have changed and you can argue the Bills are a bit worse now but in general this line should be closer to -5.5/-6 using this information. We are talking about a Bills team that closed at -2.5 in Kansas City earlier this season. To only have to lay 4.5 here I think is just flat wrong. I think we are finally getting the Bills at an attractive buy low spot.