NFL streaks provide some advantages for bettors
As I was feverishly preparing all of the data for the brand new NBA Analytics Report over the last few weeks and found some interesting and valuable information on how teams do on streaks, it occurred to me I hadn’t ever studied the subject for NFL teams, or at least hadn’t seen the data in several years. If you think about it, with a 17-game regular season schedule, a three-, four-, or even five-game streak of any sort has to be incredibly impactful for an NFL team, and the mindset or momentum that comes with it surely means something. Right? Well, that’s what I figured before setting out to uncover what different streaks of outright and ATS results, both wins and losses, mean in the grand scope of NFL betting.
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I can happily proclaim that I found an incredibly good bunch of nuggets that we, as bettors, can use going forward. And not only will I be sharing the results here, but I will also be adding these to our weekly NFL Analytics Reports going forward so that you won’t miss a single key game qualifying for any of the systems. In general, I can tell you that teams on extended losing streaks of either SU or ATS are typically sound wagers, presumably because oddsmakers side heavily against them. Also, teams on losing streaks tend to fare better on the road, while those on winning streaks are generally better at home. I’ll share more about those points in a bit as I reveal 15 NFL Streak Betting Systems that I developed using data from the last 20+ seasons.
You will see that I have also pre-qualified all of the NFL Streak Systems I have found for the Week 8 games.
NFL Streaks Betting System #1: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 38-11 SU and 30-17-2 ATS (61.2%) run when favored in the next game as well.
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously, this is an NFL trap scenario. A team is obviously not playing to its potential lately, but still, oddsmakers see enough to favor them again.
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 86-18 SU and 69-35 ATS (66.3%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
Steve’s thoughts: Upset wins can be very powerful for building momentum. Since that upset, the team is playing well and expecting to win.
NFL Streaks Betting System #3: NFL teams that have lost their last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 22-50 SU but 45-26-1 ATS (63.4%) since 2007.
Steve’s thoughts: These are the types of systems that make NFL betting tough. Nobody wants to back a team that has lost five straight games against the number, and generally in convincing fashion.
NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 13-37 SU and 11-36-3 ATS (23.4%) in game #4 since 2003.
Steve’s thoughts: These teams may be covering, but they are not doing it convincingly. They are clearly due for a reversal of fortune.
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 55-13 SU and 45-21-2 ATS (68.2%) in the next game when favored.
Steve’s thoughts: Winning close games in the NFL can often be the difference between having successful seasons or not. These types of victories can build momentum.
NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-28 SU but 31-10-2 ATS (75.6%) in their last 43 tries.
Steve’s thoughts: Backing teams on the road that are struggling and, once again, playing a good team takes a lot of courage. Those who can stomach the wagers most often win.