Every week, Sportsbook Review betting analysts Jon Metler and Neil Parker will share their top NFL player props based on the best NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites.
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football to open the 2023 season, but the defending champs might be short a couple stalwarts.
Four-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Chris Jones and the club are mired in a contract stalemate, and four-time All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce sustained a knee injury during Tuesday's practice. Even if Kelce suits up for the opener, I'm expecting him to be playing at less than 100%.
Fear not KC faithful, I hear that Patrick Mahomes guy is pretty good.
Still, there's already been line movement to the Detroit side, and expectations are high for head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions this season.
Here are our best NFL player props for Thursday of Week 1 (odds via our
best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 1
- Isiah Pacheco Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ??
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) ???
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NFL player props for Thursday Week 1
I consider this an accurate total, and my numbers are showing an edge. Additionally, Caesars has this total at 54.5 with -115 juice on the Over, so there's a bit of a cushion in that regard, too.
Pacheco returned to preseason action following offseason shoulder surgery and is the clear-cut best rusher for Kansas City. I have the seco nd-year back projected for 57.2 rushing yards against the Lions, so I'd price this Over at -144 to present a positive expected value of 13% compared to the DraftKings odds.
I am concerned with backfield mates Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire also seeing run, though, which is why I've only graded this as a two-star recommendation.
We're landing a decent advantage in this total through Caesars. FanDuel is hanging 42.5 and both DraftKings and BetMGM are at 40.5. That gap also gives me more confidence in my projection of Valdes-Scantling hauling in 42.1 receiving yards, and it reinforces my opinion that Caesars is off the mark here, too.
The second-year Chief garnered starting reps throughout training camp and the preseason, and I'm anticipating improved chemistry with Mahomes in 2023. Additionally, fellow wideout Kadarius Toney (knee) is iff y, and with both Toney and Kelce projecting to be at less than 100% for Thursday, I expect a few more targets heading Valdes-Scantling's way. And, that's if Toney and Kelce play at all.
I would price this Over at -157 based on my projections, so we're gaining a positive expected value of 14% on the Caesars number.
Thursday's NFL player props made 9/6/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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