Thanksgiving week is here, which means we have 3 Thursday games on the NFL schedule. It all gets started with the Detroit Lions hosting the Buffalo Bills. The Lions, of course, are no strangers to playing on Thanksgiving. Will their experience help them keep it close against the heavily-favored Bills?
Below is our SGP for the Thanksgiving Day opener, and also be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions picks'on the side and total.
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Jamaal Williams finding the endzone would obviously work well with a Detroit cover. At the same time, plays that correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Josh Allen to score a touchdown. But even if Allen puts points on the board with his legs, the Lions may be able to keep this one close. Let's break down each of the SGP legs.
Lions +7.5 alternate spread (+114)
The Bills' offense has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks, which could allow the Lions – as bad as their defense is – to stay within a touchdown. If there is one good thing to say about this Detroit defense, it's that the unit has held 3 straight opposing QBs to post drop back EPA numbers below their season average. Meanwhile, Lions’ offense is finally getting healthy and with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift essentially at 100% to go along with the return of DJ Chark this past week, they have enough weapons to compete. Where Detroit clearly owns an advantage is in the run game, thanks to a stellar OL facing a small Bills defensive front. Don't be surprised if this contest is competitive.