NFL Week 9 Best Bets
It has been a great stretch for me in the NFL in 2023, as another 6-2 result last week pushed my season won-lost record to 35-19 (65%). This includes a 6-1 record on totals, too. Hopefully, you’ve been following along and starting to read/interpret the same things I am on the weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports, because they are essentially guiding my handicapping. Let’s have another great week, as I have seven more plays lined up for Sunday & Monday of week 9 on the NFL slate.
Miami vs. Kansas City
NFL heads to Germany this week with a very attractive matchup lined up for the local folks. This Miami-Kansas City showdown has playoff preview written all over it. Ironically, in a matchup featuring two of the premier QBs in the league, I like the underdog because it is the far better offensive team at this point.
Not taking anything away from Patrick Mahomes, but his team just isn’t clicking. They come off an ugly turnover-laden loss at Denver and qualify for a unique system because of it. NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 13-15 SU but 6-21-1 ATS (22.2%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
Defensively, head coach Andy Reid’s team is having its best season in a while, allowing just 16.1 PPG. However, the Dolphins are scoring 11.2 PPG more than their opponents allow. In fact, both formulas for offense and defense in that regard indicate that Miami should score at least 27 points here. They have hit the 30-point mark in five of eight games this season. With an 8-4-1 ATS record recently in head-to-head play versus KC, I like Miami’s chances as the dog here.