NFL Week 17 Best Bets
The Christmas weekend had some ups and downs, and it seemed as if I was either very right or very wrong on my NFL Best Bets. With two weeks left in the regular season, my record has settled at 67-45-2 ATS, just under 60%. Last week, I felt as if I may have pushed too many plays through, so I’ve contracted it a bit for this week. Take a look at my best bets for Week 17 after pouring through the latest edition of the VSiN NFL Analytics Report:
Detroit at Dallas
I could understand why most bettors would not be willing to lay points in a game like Lions-Cowboys on Saturday night, but let’s look closely at the home/road dichotomy for both teams as a reason why we might want to. The fact is that Dallas is as explosive of a team at home as there has been in recent memory.
The Cowboys have been literally dominant in seven home games this season, outscoring opponents 39.9-15.4 on average. This coming off a 2022 season in which they won their final nine home games while scoring 29.7 PPG. Yes, head coach Mike McCarthy’s team has won 16 straight at home, and in my opinion, laying 5.5 points should almost be considered a gift.
Meanwhile, Detroit, while owing a 6-2 SU & ATS record on the road this season, has actually been outscored in those games and has been decisively less productive, scoring just under 6 PPG fewer than at home. On top of that, the last time the Lions played as an underdog, at Baltimore in game #7, they were throttled 38-6. With Dallas boasting a 12-3 ATS mark in its last 15 primetime games, I’m willing to lay the points here.
Let’s take Dallas at -5.5 (+/-1) on Saturday night