Profitable player props and parlays dominate Sunday's NBA best bets. Our top NBA player props and best bets for Sunday are based on the best NBA odds.
Sunday's two-game NBA slate features an improbable second-round matchup between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat and an electric Game 7 between the Sacramento Kings and visiting Golden State Warriors. We've got two parlays and a Jimmy Butler points pivot to go with a second-half moneyline wager for Sunday's best bets.
Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sunday's NBA schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Miami Heat (+4) vs. New York Knicks
- Golden State Warriors (+1.5) vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: Jimmy Butler Under 30.5 points (-120 via FanDuel) vs. Knicks
- Player prop: Jalen Brunson Over 22.5 points + Over 1.5 3-pointers (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Heat
- Player prop: Kevon Looney Over 13.5 rebounds + Over 3.5 assists (+248 via FanDuel) vs. Kings
- Moneyline: Kings 2nd half moneyline (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Warriors
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Sunday's NBA player prop picks
We came through Thursday with a Butler prop, but this time we're betting the Under rather than the Over. Jimmy Buckets balled in the first round against the Milwaukee Bucks, averaging better than 37 points per game and finishing with 98 total poi nts across Games 4 and 5. This will be a much different matchup.
Milwaukee ranked 10th in pace in the regular season, but the Knicks ranked 25th. This is going to be a slower-paced series, much like the Knicks-Cleveland Cavaliers series. Milwaukee's defense trailed off as the season wore on, but New York's is peaking at just the right time.
The Knicks limited Donovan Mitchell to 23.2 points and 43.3% shooting in the first round, down from 28.3 points and 48.4% in the regular season. New York also had to contend with Darius Garland, but in Miami, it's Butler then a significant drop-off in scoring with Tyler Herro out of action. We're taking Butler to go Under 30.5 in a slower game against a tougher opponent.
Knicks guard Jalen Brunson balled out all season, and he kept the momentum going in the first-round series win against Cleveland. Brunson scored at least 20 point s in every contest and averaged 24 points across five games. Dating back to the regular season, Brunson has scored at least 23 points in eight of his last 11, and he's hit this prop five times in that span.
Brunson scored 23 points in 41 games and hit at least two triples in 43. He hit this prop in two of three matchups with Miami in the regular season. After allowing just 110 points per game in the regular season, the Heat gave up 118.8 to the Bucks in the first round. Miami allowed the second most three-pointers per game and the 11th best three-point percentage in the regular season.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
After serving his suspension in Game 3, Draymond Green has come off the bench in each of the Warriors' last three contests. Green's absence and trio of games played with the second unit has coincided with Kevon Looney's surge.&nbs p;
Over his last four, the Warriors big has averaged 17.3 rebounds and 5.8 dimes, cashing this prop in three of those contests. He logged just 23.9 minutes per game in the regular season, but with Green coming off the bench, Looney's playing time has gotten a major boost. In 13 games with at least 30 minutes in the regular season and postseason, Looney averaged 14.5 rebounds and 4.4 dimes.
Looney's rebound prop is set at 12.5, and his assist prop is set at 3.5. All we need to do to majorly juice these odds is to combine them and sell one rebound. We'd expect another big game from Looney if Golden State brings Green off the bench again. There's been no indication that Green will be back in the starting five for Game 7.
Sunday's NBA game picks
After a huge win at Chase Center on Friday, momentum is on Sacramento's side heading home for Game 7. Counting the regular season and postseason, the Kings are 25-19 straight up at home this season, while the Warriors are 11-32 on the road. During the regular season, only the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets had worse road records. This game has moved to a pick 'em, and there's no value in picking the Kings to win or cover. That's why we're turning to the second-half moneyline.
Sacramento led the NBA in second half points at home with 60.6, while Golden State scored 56.5 on the road. The Warriors have proven time and time again how dangerous they can be after halftime and late in games due to coaching and experience, but Sacramento has the edge at home given Golden State's road deficiencies. The winner of the second half won each of the six games in this series, so if we're picking the Kings, it only makes sense to take them on the second-half moneyline for more profitable odds.
NBA best bets made 4/29/2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET.
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