Notable injuries have opened the door for some juicy player props, and we're taking advantage of three on Saturday. Our top NBA player props and best bets for Saturday are based on the best NBA odds.
The Philadelphia 76ers will look to complete the series sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, but they'll need to do so without Joel Embiid, which means Tyrese Maxey should feast offensively.
Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns will face a Los Angeles Clippers team missing Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, so Russell Westbrook should enjoy plenty of minutes and usage. The Los Angeles Lakers have been receiving significant production from their bench, and Rui Hachimura will look to light up the Memphis Grizzlies once again. Finally, we'll look at a point total set far too low for the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat.
Here are our top NBA player props and best be ts for Saturday (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Saturday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Philadelphia 76ers (-2) vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Phoenix Suns (-7.5) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
- Milwaukee Bucks (-5) vs. Miami Heat
- Memphis Grizzlies (+4) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points vs. Nets (+230 via FanDuel) ????
- Player prop: Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 Points vs. Grizzlies (-105 via DraftKings) ???
- Player prop: Russell Westbrook to record a triple-double vs. Grizzlies (+370 via DraftKings) ???
- Total: Bucks-Hea t Over 220.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ???
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Saturday's NBA player prop picks
Joel Embiid has been ruled out of Game 4 with a sprained right knee, and that puts Maxey in a prime position to score a lot of points. With Embiid banged up and James Harden ejected, Maxey came through with 10 points in the final 3:10 of Thursday's win, including the go-ahead 3-pointer with just 44 seconds left.
He averaged 28.9 points per game in 10 appearances without Embiid in 2022-23, notching 25 points in eight of those contests and recording at least 30 in four.
Maxey's minutes jumped from 32.8 to 37.5 when Embiid sat, and his usage went from 23.4 to 28.7. Th e young guard's production was better on the road (22.8 points per game) than at home (17.8) this season overall.
We can expect Maxey to shoulder the load offensively in this one and carry over the momentum he built in the final frame of Game 3. His points prop is set at 24.5 for odds between -105 and -110, but we can comfortably sell five points and take the plus money here.
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Hachimura has been tremendous over the first two games of the Lakers-Grizzlies series, yet his points prop is set far too low. The forward scored 29 and 20 points in those contests, and he just needs to hit 14 to cash the Over on Saturday. He's scored at least 14 points in four of his last eight games, and he hit that mark in six of eight matchups with at least 30 minutes of court time.
The clash isn't a scary one, either. Hachimura has gone for at least 14 points in four of six games against Memphis overall this campaign while averaging 15.5 points against the Grizzlies. The Grizz allow the fourth fewest points per game at home (109.3) compared to the 11th most on the road (116.8).
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Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out of Game 4 after sitting for Game 3, which can only mean one thing: maximum Russell Westbrook.
Westy finished Thursday's loss with 30 points, eight boards, and 12 dimes, falling just two rebounds shy of a triple-double. He's averaged 25.0 points, 7.5 boards, and 8.3 dimes across his last four contests (all against Phoenix).
In addition to shouldering a huge load as a scorer and facilitator, Westbrook should be playing with some ex tra motivation in this one. He's facing Kevin Durant, and Westbrook has averaged 28.3 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 9.5 assists with nine double-doubles, two triple-doubles, and four games within two rebounds or assists of a triple-double in 11 prior meetings between the two former teammates.
We'll take a calculated risk and bet on the triple-double here as Westbrook and his teammates fight for a much-needed victory to even up the series.
Saturday's NBA game pick
The total in Game 1 was 220.5 and the Over hit comfortably. Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out Game 2, and the total dropped to 216.5. Now the total is back up to 220.5 with Giannis expected to play in Game 3. We're not concerned with the four points, so take the Over.
The Over has hit in four straight games involving Milwaukee and eight of its last 10, including both contests of this ser ies. It's also cashed in five of the Bucks' last six games on the road.
That play has hit in seven of the Heat's last 10 affairs too, and the team is 4-2 to that side across its last six home games. Miami's strong defense has shown some cracks since March 1, as the team has been surrendering 117.7 points per game at home (ninth most). The Bucks have given up the third-most points on the road at 121.1, and the club's typically competent defense has been incapable of stopping any team lately.
Take the Over in what should be another high-scoring affair.
NBA best bets made 04/22/2023 at 1:15 a.m. ET.
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