Mispriced lines are all the rage for Friday's six-game slate and our NBA player props and best bets for Friday are based on the best NBA odds.
We'll follow up Thursday's six-game slate with another six-gamer before we head into the weekend.
The slate tips off with a matchup between the Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat, and we'll look to Miami Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson for another strong shooting night from beyond the arc. Toronto Raptors point guard Immanuel Quickley has provided quality play as a facilitator with Scottie Barnes on the sidelines, and that's what we're betting on as the Raps host the Orlando Magic.
Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will look for a road win when they face the San Antonio Spurs at Moody Center while trying to improve their NBA MVP odds and NBA Championship odds.
The night ca ps off as promising rookie Keyonte George and the Utah Jazz welcome a banged-up Atlanta Hawks team to Delta Center.
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Friday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's NBA best bets
- Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 made 3-pointers vs. Pistons (+110 via DraftKings) ???
- Immanuel Quickley Over 7.5 assists vs. Magic (-102 via FanDuel) ????
- Nikola Jokic Over 46.5 points+rebounds+assists vs. Spurs (-125 via DraftKings) ????
- Keyonte George Over 28.5 points+rebounds+assists vs. Hawks (-105 via DraftKings) ????
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Friday's N BA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Heat vs. Pistons | Spread: Heat -7.5 | Total: 213.5
- Suns vs. Hornets | Spread: Suns -9.5 | Total: 216.5
- Magic vs. Raptors | Spread: Magic -7.5 | Total: 215.5
- Clippers vs. Pelicans | Spread: Pelicans -6 | Total: 215.5
- Nuggets vs. Spurs | Spread: Nuggets -10 | Total: 221.5
- Hawks vs. Jazz | Spread: Hawks -2.5 | Total: 223.5
Friday's NBA player props
In 10 games since the All-Star break, Robinson has averaged three triples per contest and knocked down at least four in five of them. His attempts have increased from 6.8 per game before the break to 8.2 post-break. He knocked down four 3-pointers in 36 minutes against the Pistons on March 12 and he hit three in just 22 minutes on Oct. 25.
Robinson's minutes should be in the low-to-mid 30s again, as he's averaged 32.5 minutes in 26 games without Tyler Herro this season. He's averaged 3.2 triples and hit the Over on this prop 13 times. Herro is out again Friday, so we're going back to the well. Detroit allows the ninth-highest 3-point percentage overall (37.5%) and the seventh-highest rate when on the road at 37.9%.
Despite Robinson hitting the Over in 50% of his last 10 games and 50% of games without Herro, we can get this prop at +110 odds, which is an implied probability of 47.6%. This is a value play that's offered at plus money across our best sports betting sites.
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The line on this one feels far too low, but somehow we can get it at nearly even money at FanDuel. The -102 odds give us an implied probability of Quickley hitting the Over in 50.5% of matchups, but he's done it in three of his last five games without Scottie Barnes and five of his last seven overall. We're getting a great discount, and we'll certainly take advantage.
In five games since Barnes went out due to a hand injury, Quickley has averaged 10.2 dimes, dishing at least seven in each game. Before his season-ending injury, Barnes was the team's leading facilitator at 6.1 assists per game. At 6.6 APG, Quickley is now the team's leading playmaker, with RJ Barrett coming in third at four assists per tilt. Barrett is out for personal reasons on Friday, so Quickley is head-and-shoulders above his teammates in the assists department.
This is a tough matchup for Toronto, but Quickley's opportunity to blow past this line is tremendous.
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This one is a little juiced, but it's for good reason. Jokic has been on fire since the All-Star break, averaging 25.4 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 10.2 dimes per game, good for 49.2 points+rebounds+assists. He's hit the Over on this line in six of his last 11 contests, including three of his last four on the road. Joker racked up 59 points+rebounds+assists in his lone matchup with the Spurs this season.
Through 64 games, Jokic has hit the Over on this line 32 times, or 50%. The implied probability of our -125 odds is 55.5%, but given how strong of a matchup this is, the odds make sense. The Spurs rank in the top eight in most rebounds, points, and assists allowed this season, and Jokic should have no problem hitting the Over in such a great spot.
George has been on fire as a scorer as of late, and he's cashed the Over in three of his last eight games with points alone. Fortunately for this prop, we get to in clude assists and rebounds, so we'll confidently take the Over.
Not counting the six-minute game George played against the Washington Wizards last week, George's last four points+rebounds+assists totals are 33, 40, 39, and 31.
We can count on another strong game from George as a scorer on Friday, as he's averaged 19.2 points and 3.8 triples across his last 10 starts, not counting his early exit against the Wizards. The Hawks allow the third-most points and the fourth-most triples this season, setting up George nicely to thrive on offense.
In that 10-game stretch, he's averaged 28 points+rebounds+assists, so we'll take the Over and the favorable odds, which give an implied probability of just 51.2%. He's hit the Over in four straight games (not counting the Washington game), making these odds a huge value.
NBA best bets made Friday at 6:55 a.m. ET
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