It's been too long since we've had NBA action, but players now have a well-deserved break after All-Star festivities in Utah. We are back with a nine-game slate where teams start to straighten out their goals for the rest of the season. Read on for our NBA picks and predictions.
Thursday's action includes TNT matchups between teams staying in the fight for No. 1 seeds (Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers), another TNT matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers, and some lopsided battles that could still provide value to your bankroll. It's our job to find where the betting value is and it re-starts for the NBA on Thursday.
Here are our NBA best bets for Thursday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Thursday's NBA schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Boston Celtics (-8) vs. Indiana Pacers
- Denver Nuggets (+2.5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
- Detroit Pistons (+7) vs. Orlando Magic
- Memphis Grizzlies (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
- New Orleans Pelicans (+6) vs. Toronto Raptors
- San Antonio Spurs (+14.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+1) vs. Utah Jazz
- Golden State Warriors (+5.5) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Portland Trail Blazers (+6) vs. Sacramento Kings
Thursday's NBA best bets
- Spread: Pistons +7 (-106 via FanDuel) vs. Magic ???
- Total: Spurs-Mavericks Over 238.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Grizzlies ML (+140 via DraftKings) vs. 76ers ???
- Player prop: Fred VanVleet Over 6.5 assists (-125 via FanDuel) ????
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.
NBA top picks for Thursday
The Pistons have already started the season 2-0 outright against the Magic and the public doesn't think they have a shot to make it 3-0 as over 75% of the ATS action is laying the points with the favored Magic.
Not so fast.
In the month of February, with the two-big starting lineup featuring Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren back, Detroit is a downright-average defense in the restricted area and a top-three defense in the mid-range area. Those two zones are have recently been the bread-and-butter of the Magic offense. This month, Orlando ranks second in the NBA in field goal attempts per game in the restricted area and 11th in field goal attempts per game in the mid-range area.
On the other end of the floor, Detroit has been living off corner 3s in February and Orlando is a bottom 10 defense against that zone this month. Orlando is just 2-3 ATS this season when it is a home favorite. I expect the Magic to come out lethargic and rusty after shooting a scorching 42% from deep in their last game, and then having to sit through the All-Star Break.
These two Texas teams have played each other once already this season, and it ended up being a 126-125 thriller where the total was cleared easily in regulation. That was way back in December and a lot has changed since then, but everything still points in the direction of the Over.
In the previous matchup, the Mavericks started Spencer Dinwiddie, but he only provided 11 points on 5-of-12 shooting from the field. On Thursday, the Mavericks will have superstar scorer Kyrie Irving instead.
Meanwhi le, the Spurs started Tre Jones and Jakob Poeltl and got 17 minutes off the bench from Josh Richardson, all keys to defense for San Antonio. Poeltl and Richardson have been traded and on Thursday, Jones is listed doubtful. I'm not sure how the Spurs will produce stops. This season, they have allowed a gaudy 126.3 points per game to opponents when Jones is out.
It's smart to bet on offense in this game where the Mavericks are expected to trounce their in-state rivals.
This inter-conference matchup has been played out once this season, when the Grizzlies handily beat the 76ers at home in December. In that game, however, the 76ers were without James Harden and Tyrese Maxey and the Grizzlies were without Desmond Bane.
On Thursday, the injury report favors the 76ers. Philly's inactive list is empty while Memphis has listed new acquisition Luke Kennard and starting center Steven A dams as out. That is likely why over 75% of the public ATS action has come in on the 76ers to split the season series as they fight for the No. 1 seed in the East, but that is naive.
Since Jan. 25, the Grizzlies have played every game without Adams and all but one game with their top option in Ja Morant. In that span, the Grizzlies rank top 11 in the NBA in field goal attempts per game in the restricted area and the paint. That's bad news for a 76ers defense that has allowed the 10th-highest field goal percentage within eight feet of the basket and fifth-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area since the New Year.
On the other end of the floor, the availability of Harden does help Philadelphia's offense, but not by as big of a margin as the public is expecting with Dillon Brooks and his lockdown defense available for the Grizzlies.
I'm expecting the Grizzlies to k eep this close all night on national television, thanks to the elite paint production of Morant. The 76ers are 19-11 this season in clutch games but that should regress, especially in a game where they have a clear coaching disadvantage against the Grizzlies' Taylor Jenkins. Thursday is a good opportunity to pass up on the small spread and take Memphis straight up.
The Raptors have their preferred starting lineup in place for Thursday's home contest against the Pelicans and that should bode well for ball movement through their veteran point guard. Over their last seven games, the Pelicans have allowed the second-most assists per game to point guards, including seven assists from D'Angelo Russell the last time the Pelicans were on the road.
VanVleet's top targets to complete assists this season are Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., and OG Anunoby – all four are expected to start alongside Van Vleet on Thursday. VanVleet has cleared this assist mark in 11 of his 16 games this season when this is the starting lineup for Toronto. In his previous meeting against the Pelicans, he recorded six assists but that effort came in just 20 minutes due to a New Orleans blowout. Toronto is favored on Thursday, so expect the minutes and offensive production to see an uptick from that matchup.
NBA best bets made 02/23/2023 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
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