NBA Futures Odds and Best Bets: Will the Lakers Make the Playoffs?

Party like it's 2021? That's the plan as I'm all in on the Milwaukee Bucks winning another NBA title. Read on for Jon Metler's top NBA picks for the futures market based on the best NBA odds.

With the NBA All-Star break leaving us with no games to bet on until Thursday (ugh), I wanted to take a deeper dive into the futures market as we approach the stretch run of the NBA season. 

Don't ignore the futures markets!

Although I love straight bets on player props and same game parlays as much as the next person, I also invest a significant portion of my bankroll and a large number of units in the futures market. 

Here are our NBA best bets for the futures markets (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and PointsBet)

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Top NBA futures picks

They love to give the NBA Most Improved Player award to players who have made the leap from solid NBA player to budding superstar. The previous three winners – Ja Morant, Julius Randle, and Brandon Ingram – all made that leap the year they were honored. 

I believe what Brunson has done will be valued much higher than what Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lauri Markkanen have accomplished. While we all mocked the Knicks for signing Brunson to a huge contract, he has actually outplayed it, which seemed impossible at the time of the deal.

In addition to averaging 23.9 points per game, Brunson also has a player efficiency rating of 21.4, both of which are career highs.

I prefer Brunson in this market primarily because he's priced at +350, while Markkanen and Gilgeous-Alexander are trading at around +130.

Brunson is also performing under the brightest of lights in Madison Square Garden – and that matters here. Voters favor teams in large markets like New York, and if Brunson can lead the Knicks to the playoffs, that will be incredibly valuable come award voting time.

While Joe Mazzulla has done an excellent job with the Boston Celtics (especially considering he had no prior NBA head coaching experience), I believe that his position at the top of the odds board may be threatened. 

Mazzulla inherited arguably the best roster in the NBA – and while his efforts are being rightly praised, what if the Bucks finish with the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed at the end of the year? I believe Mazzulla's spot as the favorite depends on him finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference, and my current projections show the Bucks and Celtics both finishing with 56 wins. 

Brown, on the other hand, only needs to lead Sacramento to the playoffs to seize control of the Coach of the Year narrative. Brown took over a Kings franchise that hadn't reached the playoffs since the 2005-06 season – and he's the only major change from last year's 30-win unit.

If the Kings reach the playoffs – and projections give them a 78% chance – Brown will become the frontrunner for Coach of the Year. I believe Brown should be the favorite in this market, which is why I recommend backing BetMGM's +250 price point.

Milwaukee could finish with the best record in the Eastern Conference and the best defensive rating in the NBA. And in that case, wouldn't DPOY voters immediately turn to the Bucks?

My first instinct is to take a close look at Brook Lopez, who is trading at a price of around +500, but I would rather take advantage of the extra couple of zeros on the price and shoot my shot with Holiday.

An anonymous coaches poll conducted before the season asked the question: Who is the best defender in the NBA? Holiday placed third, behind only Rudy Gobert and Marcus Smart. 

Do I expect Holiday to win the Defensive Player of the Year award? No – but there are no real parameters for what it takes to win this award, and Smart was trading at +15000 last February when he won the Defensive Player of the Year award. 

In terms of backing someone on the Bucks roster, I would choose Holiday because of the +50000 offered by PointsBet. The purpose of this wager is to take advantage of the prices available to us and take a chance on a player who is regarded as a top defender on one of the top teams in the NBA. 

I've been adamant about this futures play for several months now, and nothing has changed my mind; if anything, I'm more confident than ever. My money is on the Bucks winning the NBA Finals, and I still think you're receiving a favorable price. 

The Bucks have not been playing at full strength throughout the season, allowing them to fly under the radar to some degree – and now they've added Jae Crowder to the mix. I believe that the Bucks have all the pieces necessary to elevate their level of play when the games really start to matter.

FiveThirtyEight projects that the Bucks have a 17% chance of winning the NBA Finals, which implies that their odds should trade at +488. PointsBet, FanDuel, and Caesars agree with these projections, but with DraftKings and BetMGM's price point of +550, you can still gain an edge. 

As DraftKings and BetMGM both offer the same price of +550, I would choose BetMGM over DraftKings for this bet. In my experience, BetMGM appears to be more generous with their cashouts on their NBA Finals odds. 

The Bucks are not just my pick to win it all for the sake of content, either; I'm heavily committed to the outcome and have bets on the Bucks that range from +600 to +800.

When the Spurs faced the Detroit Pistons a couple of weeks ago, they rested several starters in a move almost certainly designed to improve their chances at drafting Victor Wembanyama. I think we're about to witness an epic tank job by the Spurs down the stretch, as they're much further behind in their rebuild than the Pistons and Rockets are. 

numberFire predicts the Spurs will win 19.2 games and the Rockets will win 19.4, which is very close; however, when we consider the odds, the Rockets are the shorter shot at +120. 

I believe the Spurs will do everything within their power to not win another game this season, while the Rockets and Pistons are not likely to exhibit that level of commitment to tanking.

Based on the standings and projections of the Eastern Conference, the top four seeds are essentially locked up by the Celtics, Cavaliers, Bucks, and 76ers. That leaves the Nets, Heat, and Knicks to compete for the No. 5 seed. 

The Nets are projected to win 46 games, but I'm not sure how much I trust that number, with their roster facing potential chemistry problems due to the influx of new players.

It's projected that the Heat will finish with 44 wins and the Knicks with 45. Although the Knicks are projected to win more games than the Heat, we're still receiving a higher price point for them to claim the No. 5 seed at +550.  

Brunson to win the Most Improved Player of the Year award, the Knicks to claim the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference and now a bet on the Knicks to surpass their win total. This article is really beginning to resemble a Knicks article rather than my best bets in the futures market. 

When a team is worth betting on, it often appears in multiple markets. This is common when finding an edge in the numbers.

The same reason I argued for the Knicks to claim the No. 5 seed as they have a projected win total of 45 games is exactly the reason we should look at playing the Over 43.5 on the Knicks 'win total. 

FanDuel would make this bet much less appealing if it followed the juice DraftKings (-135) and PointsBet (-130) have on the Over 43.5; Instead, it sits 20 cents lower, which is why we have to place our Knicks bet here.

The Celtics rested their starters in a game against the Bucks just before the All-Star break. Why should we believe the Celtics will step on it down the stretch and win as many games as they possibly can if they don't feel the need to play their starters against the Bucks? 

It's projected that the Celtics will win 57 games, which gives us a buffer of one game in case the projection is a little off. It may not seem like a lot, but a difference of 1.5 games at this point in the season is not easy to find when it comes to win totals. 

FanDuel offers the best price at -122 for the Celtics to go Under their win total of 58.5 games. 

The NBA scoring title is still up for grabs, and Lillard is only 1.9 points behind the leader (Doncic). As Lillard tries to get the Trail Blazers into the play-in tournament, we may see some epic performances from him down the stretch. 

Lillard has averaged 36.7 points per game over the last 15 games, and has really stepped it up the last two months, averaging 34.5 points per game in January and 36.1 points per game in February. 

I like Lillard in this market since Doncic now has someone else to defer to on the offensive end, unlike at the beginning of the season. Now that Kyrie Irving is a member of the Dallas Mavericks, Doncic will not be under as much pressure to score so many points. 

This slight change in Doncic's usage may open the door for someone like Lillard to take the title from him. 

If this was any other franchise, we would be seeing much different odds on them missing the playoffs, but it's the Lakers – and I assume there's quite a bit of liability associated with them making the playoffs. 

It's very common for bettors to bet on what they want to see happen, and people want the Lakers in the playoffs (I mean I want the Lakers in the playoffs.) In reality, however, this perception and liability create an edge for us as bettors.

We can price the No at -278 based on the projections which give the Lakers a 26.4% chance of making the playoffs. The sportsbooks are begging for action on the No on this prop with their pricing, so I will take advantage of their liability by betting on the -185 that Caesars is offering. 

Laying -185 on a futures bet isn't the most exciting wager in the w orld, but value is value. 

NBA best bets made 02/22/2023 at 8:00 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

• FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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