There's not a snowball's chance in South Texas that either the Houston Rockets or San Antonio Spurs will contend for an NBA title this season. These teams have their eyes on a very different prize – the NBA's inaugural in-season tournament – and sports bettors have enthusiastically backed the two squads to claim the gimmicky crown in preseason action at Caesars Sportsbook.
“The futures odds on that, with it being the first year they’re doing it, I’m interested to see which teams take it a little more seriously,” said David Lieberman, Caesars Sportsbook's lead NBA trader. “Making the odds on that and seeing the betting has been pretty interesting for that market.”
Oklahoma City is a more dangerous team that has taken a decent amount of money in the in-season tourney market, and the Thunder have a unicorn of a rookie in Chet Holmgren who, along with Portland's Scoot Henderson, is expected to push an even bigger unicorn, San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama, in the Rookie of the Year race.
“Obviously, Wembanyama is the odds-on favorite, but you have two players right behind him who can easily put up big numbers this year,” observed Lieberman. “There are a lot of guys who will be starting or getting big minutes.”
Here at , we've got one writer who's bullish on Wemby and another who thinks the Spurs are going to stink. That's the beauty of futures bets – there's something for everyone, and here are our staffers' favorite touts as Tuesday night's regular-season tipoff approaches.
The Knicks had a golden opportunity to reach the Eastern Conference Finals last year after the 8th-seeded Heat shocked top-seeded Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs.
But the Knicks lost the opener to the Heat at Madison Square Garden and fell to Miami in six tough games. For the Knicks to make it out of the East, they may have to knock off the Bucks and Celtics in successive series.
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Both teams bolstered their lineups in the offseason, with the Bucks acquiring Damian Lillard and the Celts adding two high-level starters in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. While defeating either will be a big ask, I'm willing to take a chance on the Knicks to make the NBA Finals at 18/1. As of last week, wagers on the Knicks to reach the finals had accounted for 8% of the handle at DraftKings, making them a more popular choice than the Cavs or Sixers.
The Knicks may need to add a star at the deadline, which leads to my second bet. Since entering the league in 2019, Zion Williamson has shown glimpses of becoming a perennial All-NBA selection. But the oft-injured Zion has struggled to remain on the floor, appearing in only 114 of a possible 337 games.'
At FanDuel, only 30% of all bettors are taking the Pels to make the playoffs, resulting in just 6% of the handle. I'm betting on Zion to suffer another injury that will sideline him for a considerable portion of the season, thus torpedoing New Orleans’ playoff hopes.'
By the trade deadline, New Orleans may finally pull the plug on the Zion experiment, potentially sending Big Z to the Big Apple. If so, the likelihood of hitting both wagers will grow exponentially.
— Matt Rybaltowski
During last season’s title run, rookie Denver swingman Christian Braun was a surprising standout off the bench, showcasing an athletic 3-and-D game against the best teams in the league with the stakes high as can be.
With Bruce Brown and Jeff Green signing elsewhere in free agency, Braun will anchor a thin Denver reserve corps as its undisputed sixth man. He is well worth a longshot wager to make a far more significant contribution for the defending champs. BetMGM has him priced at 40/1 to win this award, so getting him at 75/1 at Caesars represents exceptional value.
Conversely, Cade Cunningham’s 2022-2023 campaign was a wash, as he missed all but a dozen games with a shin injury. By all accounts, he was a revelation playing the Luka Doncic role on Team USA’s scout team over the summer and seems a fine candidate to assume the alpha role the Pistons envisioned for him when they selected him first in the 2021 draft. That sounds like a perfect recipe for a Most Improved Player bid, making FanDuel’s 15/1 price rather irresistible.
— Mike Seely
I suspect other bettors will look closer at Scoot Henderson or Chet Holmgren in this market, but I don't care. Wembanyama has an absurd skill set for his size, showcasing guard-like skills as a 7-foot-4-inch center. He can shoot from deep, rebound, and block shots.'
I'm banking on Wembanyama's highlight reel plays and overall stats — he'll play a key role for San Antonio immediately — to give him a leg up over his fellow Rookie of the Year contenders. I also like that he's playing under Gregg Popovich, one of the best coaches of all time. I think the Spurs will find ways to effectively utilize the big man and he'll post jaw-dropping numbers compared to his fellow rookies. There's a reason he's -120 to win the award at Caesars.
My logic here is simple: Wembanyama is the best rookie in this rookie class. If he stays healthy, he's going to record an impressive number of points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. He's capable of running away with this award, while I don't think any of his peers have that ability without other contenders suffering injuries.
— Bennett Conlin
Love 'em or hate 'em, the NBA is a better place when the Los Angeles Lakers are in contention. (Same holds true for the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks, and wowza: This is probably the first time in a billion years we're entering the season with all three teams primed for success.)
The Lakers have the fifth-shortest odds to win the NBA championship at DraftKings at +1200 — though that's only third-best in the loaded West, with the Warriors and Clippers nipping at their heels. Now, do I think the Lakers can actually come out of the West and go to the finals? Well, that depends: Are LeBron James and Anthony Davis going to remain healthy?
Because if the answer to that second question is “yes,” then the answer to the first question is “maybe.” By the way, the Lakers at +1200 isn't my bet. It's Davis to win MVP at +4000 at BetMGM.
Last season, Davis averaged 26-12-3, with a steal and two blocks a game. The MVP, Joel Embiid, averaged 33-10-4, with a steal and 1.7 blocks a game. Clearly, Davis can put up numbers. Clearly, he can dominate a game. Clearly, he's about as fragile as Samuel L. Jackson in .
But what if he stays healthy? What if James stays healthy? What if the Lakers’ supporting cast — which is as strong as it’s ever been in the James/Davis era — steps it up just a little bit? Remember, this team wormed its way into the Western Conference finals last year.
Do I think Davis wins MVP? Not really. Do I think it happens at least once if we play the season out 40 times? Clearly I do.
— Jeff Edelstein
San Antonio tied for the worst record in the West last year at 22-60, but when they landed the No. 1 pick in the draft and snagged potentially the unicorniest unicorn ever to unicorn in Victor Wembanyama, excitement and expectations spiked. The betting season opened with a 30.5 win total for the Spurs at most major sportsbooks. But it's been bet down to 28.5, and rightly so. This is a team that should have no interest in winning right now.
For all his talent, Wemby is a project sure to experience the usual rookie growing pains. And if he endures any actual physical pains, San Antonio’s staff will undoubtedly choose to sit him.
The Spurs have their own draft pick in 2024 and possibly Toronto's (top-six protected) and Charlotte's (top-14 protected) as well. They just signed Gregg Popovich to a five-year extension, so he's thinking about the long term just like everyone else in San Antonio. Could they win 29 games if they go all out? Sure. Will they go all out? Absolutely not. They want to start being good next year.
It's unfortunate that we can't find 30.5 anywhere anymore, but the even-money at BetMGM helps ease that.
Meanwhile, if you're more in the market for a fun sweat at long odds than a season-long slog bet, may I suggest the Atlanta Hawks to win the league's new in-season tournament? As SiriusXM NBA Radio's Brian Geltzeiler explained on the latest episode of US Bets‘ Gamble On podcast, this tourney likely caters to mid-tier teams without serious championship aspirations but with the talent to win when motivated.'
Trae Young is a boom-or-bust player from one night to the next, which is just what you want in a team to back at 24/1 in a semi-crapshoot side event like this. In East Group A, the Hawks are up against two teams with larger aspirations (Philly and Cleveland) and two with lesser capabilities (Pacers and Pistons). That's perfect.
The in-season tournament seems silly – right up until the point when you have a shot at cashing a +2400 ticket on it.
— Eric Raskin