NBA Draft 2023 predictions: Best prospect, biggest bust, team with most at stake, more

The 2023 NBA Draft is finally here and there's plenty of intrigue surrounding this year's event. French prospect Victor Wembanyama is expected to be the top pick but the draft can take several different directions after he goes first overall. With plenty of questions surrounding the draft from the best prospect to the team with the most at stake, the DK Nation staff decided to come together to provide some answers.

Here's how our staff sees this year's draft playing out.

After Victor Wembanyama, who is the next best prospect?

Chinmay Vaidya, DK Nation Sports Editor: I think Scoot Henderson does have more upside than Brandon Miller, but Miller's floor is already good. He's a better scorer and projects better as a switchable defender, even though Henderson is good on that side of the ball too. I'd lean Miller for now but would understand a team with a need at guard favoring Henderson.

Pete Hernandez, DK Nation Newsdesk Writer: It's no secret that the NBA is constantly evolving toward the perimeter, which is why I think Brandon Miller is the next best prospect and should hear his name called after Wembanyama. His height and wingspan are exactly what NBA franchises covet in today's league, and his 38.4 3P% illustrates how he can align his skillset with today's three-point addicted landscape.

Ben Zweiman, Senior Managing Editor: In the debate of Scoot vs. Miller give me Miller. He fits more of the mold of a prototypical All-Star scoring wing in the NBA. That upside just is too good to pass on at No. 2. Henderson has some size question marks and I think at the end of the day, both players will be very good at the next level. Miller just has upside to be a top-5 player down the road. I don't see Scoot with that upside.

Collin Sherwin, DK Nation College Sports Editor: I saw Brandon Miller in the midst of a murder investigation get 41 points at South Carolina with the entire world watching him and hating him. It was one of the more incredible performances I've seen from any college athlete ever considering the circumstances. I love Scoot's upside, but teams have apparently cleared Miller on the off-court character concerns despite the horror of the crime as he didn't know what was going to happen. If that's the case, his length and ability to get buckets in fantastic.

Mike Turay, DK Nation Editorial Coordinator: Scoot vs. Miller is the consensus here, so why not swing for the fences? Cam Whitmore out of Villanova has impressive physical tools (40.5 in. vertical) and turns 19 this July making him younger than both aforementioned. While his college stats were nothing to right home about, Whitmore seems to fit the role of an athletic “3 and D” player with tons of potential to expand his offensive game. Depending on his landing spot, we all know Nova players come ready to play.

Which lottery prospect will not pan out in the NBA?

CV: There's a really high chance one of the Thompson twins doesn't make a big mark, and a decent chance neither really click at this level. Both are great athletes but don't necessarily have an elite skill they can bank on. Neither can shoot the triple and there isn't a history of progression to show even signs of improvement there. Maybe the NBA shot doctors can work their magic again but one of Amen and Ausar is likely to bust.

PH: I'm rooting for Scoot Henderson and commend the work he's putting in with Stephen Curry, but I'm curious if his skillset is being slowly phased out with the way the league is shifting. Henderson has drawn comparisons to high-energy players like Russell Westbrook and Collin Sexton, but the lack of a shot is what has hindered both, and especially the former. Taking a leap in shooting efficiency and refining his mechanics will prove me wrong here.

BZ: Amen Thompson going that high gives me some concern. Both the Thompson brothers really, as Chinmay alluded to above. Why am I going with either of them over Miller, first of all. I also like a few other prospects from college who have less risk than Amen in the top-3. I think this is more about positioning than “do I think both or one busts in the NBA” but both seem to be projects. Projects that high up tend to pan out less frequently.

CS: I don't see it with Jett Howard. At 6'8 you've got to get more than 2.8 rebounds per game in college. He also had a quality big in Hunter Dickinson to help, but still couldn't shoot at a great clip from deep. Think this is an overvalue here.

MT: His stock has risen and playing along side Wembanyama gave scouts a chance to see him, but Bilal Coulibaly might not be the guy. I'm all for international prospects, and standing at 6'8″ along with a 7-2 wingspan is off the charts. What worries me is 59% from the free-throw line and after watching tape, teams were daring him to make corner threes. Hopefully he proves me wrong, but they're plenty of wing defender builds in this draft that have better shooting splits.

Outside of the lottery, which prospect is your sleeper pick?

CV: I consider this to be a fairly deep draft outside of the lottery when it comes to finding competent rotation players. Brice Sensabaugh out of Ohio State broke out as a freshman offensively, and his three-point shooting is really impressive. If he can maintain that going forward, he should be able to carve out a sizable role as a versatile wing player.

PH: Maybe his clutch three over UCLA in the Sweet 16 is engrained in my head, but I like the chances of Gonzaga's Julian Strawther translating his game seamlessly at the next level. At 6-7 with a 205 lb frame, he has the tangibles to help him succeed while his 40.8 3P%, coupled with his 46.9% from the field illustrate how he can score at different levels versus NBA competition.

BZ: When in doubt, go with the guard from Kentucky, right? I also like Anthony Black out of Arkansas quite a bit. But Cason Wallace is your lottery Wildcats guard and the success rate of UK players in the NBA can't be ignored at this point. It seems Wallace's floor is a plus-defender who can shoot the ball in spot up situations. He also has vision as a good point guard around talent. If I can assure I get a rotation player somewhere in the 10-15 range, you take that every day of the week. GMs just need to admit forcing UK isn't a bad strategy in the first round.

CS: If Nikola Jokic plays too fast for you, allow me to introduce UCLA's Jaime Jaquez Jr. He brings the high socks and YMCA game of your favorite middle-aged used-to-be during open run to the L. But he can get a bucket anyway he chooses, and was a slightly better defender than you'd expect. Opponents are going to put him in pick-and-roll D a lot, but he'll score a ton in isolation the other way, and Mick Cronin didn't let him pass enough. Honorable mention to Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis, who played with the most overrated teammates in America (hey Kerr Kriisa, how's that WVU move working out??), but still made a difference every night.

MT: This selection is more about fit but Big Ten Freshman of the Year, Jalen Hood-Schifino could be a piece of a Wizards rebuild. We all know Beal is off to Phoenix and the former five-star out of Montverde Academy in my eyes, is ready to be a lead guard. Mike Woodson utilized him a lot in pick and roll at Indiana, as Hood-Schfinio can score at all three levels while being a playmaker for his teammates. Sleeper for sure!

Best player in 5 years: Wembanyama or the field?

CV: There's a reason you don't see a ton of 7-4 players running around the NBA doing the things Wembanyama can do. The logical move would be to take the field, especially since there's always going to be health concerns surrounding the French star. However, I'll say Wembanyama is able to take his time developing in San Antonio and does become the best player from this draft.

PH: I'm going with Wembayanma here, and seeing Nikola Jokic dominate the 2023 playoffs only gives me more faith in the French phenom. By no means am I predicting Wembanyama to pan out like Jokic, but I do think it illustrates that a big man can succeed in today's NBA so long as they tailor their skillset toward the perimeter.

BZ: Wemby. There's no debate here. There are some decent prospects behind him but Wemby's ceiling is somewhere between Kevin Durant and Giannis. His combination of skills plus the size and length, he's about as sure a thing in the draft in a while.

CS: I'm probably naming my first child Wemby.

MT: Wembanyama is the guy and will continue to be it as years progress. Sure Scoot and Miller will have solid careers, but this is a one-man race. There's a reason why San Antonio tanked for several seasons and kept Pop on board, he is him! 7-4 frame, guard-like capabilities along with rim protection, he'll be a transcendent talent for the next decade or so. Of course he'll have to hit the weight room, but the league is not ready for what he has to offer.

Which team has the most at stake on draft night?

CV: Any time you have multiple first-round picks, it's a big draft night. The Indiana Pacers are sneakily on the clock in terms of needing to nail this draft, but I'm going to go with the Magic. Paolo Banchero led this team to 34 wins in his rookie season, and the team now has two lottery picks. Orlando should be in contention for a playoff spot next season if it gets these selections right. The Magic have made the playoffs just twice in the last 11 seasons, so these picks are massive.

PH: Everyone knows that the real show starts at No. 2 overall, so I'm saying the Hornets have the most at stake. With Wembanyama surely gone, it's up to them to decide whether staying put for either Miller or Henderson is the sound move, or trading out for more assets is a better course of action. By no means are the playoffs a realistic goal next season, but the wrong move here could set them back as they must eventually pair Lamelo Ball with the franchise cornerstone, or else they'll be wasting years of his All-Star career.

BZ: The Portland Trail Blazers have a lot of tough decisions and different routes they can go with the No. 3 pick. Damian Lillard could be moved to Miami or elsewhere. The No. 3 pick would likely be involved so I think everyone is honed in on the Blazers at No. 3 given the top of the draft is kind of easy to predict. Maybe if Scoot drops Portland could select Henderson and deal Dame. If Miller is there at three, it could make sense to keep Lillard and see if the 'Bama product is a missing piece of sorts.

CS: Orlando has two lottery picks, an apathetic fan base, a potential superstar in Paolo Banchero, and some decent pieces in guys like Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony. They've got to hit on these picks (or make a deal for a star) to begin developing into something resembling a core.

MT: With Damian Lillard and his situation it's hard not to say Portland. As the guys mentioned above, the Magic also have a lot at stake, but I'll say Houston. Among all the teams listed, the Rockets have a win-now type of coach in Ime Udoka who knows how to get the best out of a rotation. Amen Thompson will have a lot of weight on his shoulders and if that pick doesn't go as planned, the next pick for Houston is No. 20. With a ton of youth on the roster, who do they decide to build around, Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun? The picks they make Thursday will shape their system and culture.

Bold prediction for draft night?

CV: Much to the chagrin of Damian Lillard, the Portland Trail Blazers do not trade the No. 3 overall pick and end up selecting the best player available. They may eventually trade that player but at that point, the Blazers do lose some leverage because they're now shopping a known quantity vs. the unknown draft asset. There will be some discussions but ultimately Portland will feel the offers don't match the upside of its selection.

PH: The Dallas Mavericks sitting at No. 10 screams off the page to me, because there's no way they stand pat and use that pick, right? It's clear that Dallas' priority is re-signing Kyrie Irving and subsequently making a big move to help Luka Doncic. There have been some swirling reports that the Atlanta Hawks could finally move John Collins in a deal that includes the Mavericks' No. 10 pick. Maybe it won't be Collins, but I have a feeling Dallas packages this selection for a more ready-impact player.

BZ: I'll go ahead and say Scoot Henderson drops outside the top-5 despite seemingly being the consensus No. 2 pick in most mocks. The Spurs go Wemby. The Hornets are good at guard so they look to Brandon Miller. The Blazers could go Scoot but it looks like Dame is going to stay put, so Portland doesn't need a guard. The Rockets could bring back James Harden in free agency and already have Jalen Green, so that back court may be blocked from Scoot. The Pistons have spent two top-5 picks the past two drafts on guards with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. I'm not saying Scoot ends up being a bust I think if he falls it could be perfect for him.

CS: Gradey Dick goes sooner than expected. He's just 19 and can shoot the lights out, and scouts will fall in love with parts of his game tape (the parts that don't involve on-ball defense). He's a prototype player for the new NBA, but he needs to fill out physically.

MT: Not much of a bold one, but somehow Baylor guard Keyonte George sneaks into the lottery. George was highly touted and had an underwhelming stint at Baylor, battling injuries toward the second-half of his freshman season. Nonetheless, his shot-making ability is hard to pass up on. He's not a high flying athlete, but at 6'4″ can be a microwave type of scorer off the bench for any team.

  
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