I went 3-0 with my 3 best bets for last Friday’s NBA Playoff games, so let’s try to match that success with 3 more plays for Wednesday’s slate.
Today, I like a couple of totals and one favorite against the spread, so let's get into explaining the reasoning behind those picks.
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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Over 219.5 (-110)
It's Game 5 between the Bucks and the Heat in Milwaukee and the Bucks are facing elimination. I haven't exactly been spot-on in handicapping this series. Mostly because I have no explanation for what the Miami Heat are doing offensively. They are averaging more points than any team these playoffs and are shooting 54% from the field and nearly 48% from three. If you want to go look at their regular season numbers, you'll see the vast difference.
I've looked to the under several times in this series. I've decided it's time to change my ways. Despite the overabundance of scoring and the four games averaging 240 points per game, oddsmakers have been reluctant to come above 220 as a posted total. Well, I'm not fighting it anymore. Simply put, it's my belief that one of these two teams will score 120 points. The other only needs to get to 100 to push this total over. If there's a breakout defensive performance, it would be the first one in this series. And with Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup, there will be enough scoring for me.