Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of prop bets with oversized odds for UFC 281.
In this weekly feature, Action Network’s MMA team welcomes in a revolving cast of outside contributors and fellow combat-sports analysts. Each #MMAPropSquad installment will feature a handful of picks from this squad of prop-betting enthusiasts.
This week marks the return of contributors Dan Tom, Manpreet Jhass and Clint MacLean, who join Prop Squad regulars Tony Sartori, Billy Ward, Sean Zerillo and Dann Stupp. We’ll be looking to build upon our 5.9% ROI.
Check out their picks for Saturday’s UFC 281 event, which streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET) following prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET).
As with all betting, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types.
Dan Tom: Julio Arce in Round 3 (+3000)
Catching my eye on this week’s UFC card is a bantamweight fight between Julio Arce and Montel Jackson.
Jackson gets a ton of hype for his athletic potential, but I’m still not sold enough to trust him at north of 2-1 odds opposite an experienced talent such as Arce.
I also suspect that Arce is the fighter who is fighting in the correct division, and I believe that Jackson is destined for featherweight and beyond given his obscene size for the weight class.
In fact, if you look at extremely large and long fighters trying to make the lighter divisions, you will notice a trend of suspect durability or, in Jackson’s case, a susceptibility to gas (particularly as they continue these drastic weight cuts into their 30s).
Not only is Arce a builder who gets better as the fight goes on, but the former Golden Gloves winner and kickboxing champ does particularly well against tall fighters and fellow southpaws like Andre Ewell or Julian Erosa (both of whom were stopped in the later rounds).
For that reason, I ended up playing Arce’s money line at plus money and sprinkling on him to win in round 3 at +3000.
The Pick: Julio Arce and Round 3 (+3000 at SuperBook)
Manpreet Jhass: Erin Blanchfield by Submission (+380)
The Molly McCann hype train makes a stop at Madison Square Garden this weekend. Erin Blanchfield will be the fighter across the UFC octagon when the cage door closes, hoping to steal some of that fire.
McCann’s rise has been largely due to her friendship with Paddy Pimblett, but she is making the most of it by delivering on back-to-back highlight reel knockouts. It also can’t be overstated that she, along with Pimblett, are the first UFC fighters to be signed to an endorsement deal with Barstool Sports. That is also helping her popularity tremendously.
Getting into her style, the boxing game of McCann has improved leaps and bounds since she first stepped foot in the UFC back in 2018. That is definitely the strongest aspect of her game. She utilizes forward movement and pressure very effectively, which allows her striking game to flow behind it.
Blanchfield, meanwhile, is a 23-year-old hot prospect who is riding a six-fight winning streak. Her only loss has come at the hands of current flyweight contender Tracy Cortez. The fact that she had a razor-close fight with Cortez when she was just 19 shows how bright of a future she has.
When at her best, Blanchfield can ground fights and control her opponents very well. Her Brazilian jiu-jitsu is the strongest part of her game, and I think that will be very important in this matchup. The striking of Blanchfield is still a work in progress, but I think she can remain competitive enough on the feet until she is able to get the fight to the mat.
It was very impressive to see Blanchfield get a strong grappler like Miranda Maverick into many compromising positions, which is why I honed in on the submission prop for this fight. Including her amateur career, Blanchfield has three submission wins. I think she can make it four this weekend.
McCann has been submitted once in her career, but she has been put in plenty of dangerous positions on the mat by lesser competition.
I think the wrestling game from Blanchfield will get this fight to the mat about halfway through the first round, and it will get easier as the fight goes on until she finds that submission.
The price is just too nice to pass up, especially when I believe there is such a wide gap in the grappling realm like this.
The Pick: Erin Blanchfield by Submission (+380 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Ryan Spann in Round 1 (+600)
In terms of dollars per minute, Ryan Spann might be the UFC's best-paid fighter. None of his last four bouts has left the first round, with “Superman” alternating wins and losses. He's perfectly balanced in his methods: one win each by knockout and submission, and also one loss each.
This time, he's fighting Dominick Reyes, a former title challenger who is best known for taking Jon Jones to a very close (if not controversial) decision in Jones' last UFC fight. Since then though, Reyes has suffered consecutive knockout losses.
While those knockouts came to current and former champions in Jiri Prozchaka and Jan Blachowicz, it's not a good sign for Reyes' chin. This will also be Reyes’ first fight back after undergoing surgery on a torn meniscus in his right knee – also not ideal.
With that said, both fighters should fight very aggressively. I just have way more faith in Spann's chin at this point in their careers. Spann frequently looks to lock up a guillotine when he has his opponent hurt, which is why I prefer the round prop to the method of victory.
The Pick: Ryan Spann to Win in Round 1 (+600 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: Ryan Spann via Submission (+850)
I’m going to keep this simple: I have doubts about Dominick Reyes’ durability and motivation, and if those concerns become a reality on Saturday night, Ryan Spann has the exact tool he needs to capitalize.
And thankfully for us, that guillotine choke – or any submission for that matter – comes with sizable odds of +850 at FanDuel.