MLB Wins Leader Odds 2023: You Can Count on Darvish

Regardless of the sport, you play to win the game, and the MLB wins leader is easily one of the most unpredictable betting markets in sports. Here's sports betting analyst Neil Parker's breakdown and top MLB picks for who will lead the league in wins based on the best MLB odds.

Favorites, long shots, and hurlers entirely absent from preseason odds lists have recently paced the majors in wins, and last year's league-leader serves as a perfect example.

Atlanta Braves righty Kyle Wright pitched a mere 6 1/3 innings across two winless starts in 2021 before tallying up a league-leading 21 victories last year. It was also the second consecutive season an off-the-board pitcher led baseball in wins.

Still, a number of potential Hall of Famers have also weighed in. Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer have all won the most games in a season during their respective careers.

Here's a look at the best odds for the 2023 wins leader, and our top picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet).

Check out our 2023 World Series Odds.

Check out our 2023 MLB Cy Young Odds.

MLB 2023 wins leader odds best bets

• Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2500 via Caesars) – Feb. 24
• Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays (+2800 via Caesars) – Feb. 24
• Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (+4000 via BetMGM) – Feb. 24
• Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (+5000 via BetMGM) – Feb. 24

MLB 2023 wins leader odds: Favorites

The consensus favorite to lead the majors in wins in 2023, Cole posted a 13-8 record across an MLB-high 33 starts last year. He's proven to be a perennial Cy Young candidate since shifting to the AL, and his durability and pitching for a pennant contender rightfully position him as a frontrunner in this betting market. 

Cole's velocity hasn't dipped as he ap proaches his mid-30s, but both his ERA and FIP creeped up in 2022, so I'm concerned he's in the twilight of his prime – if not past it.

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner heads to the NL for the first time in his storied 17 year-career. Verlander has led the majors in wins three times, and he also paced the AL in victories in 2022. Father Time has nothing on the 40-year-old hurler.

The 25-year-old lefty checks all the boxes. Urias paced the majors in wins in 2021, and he won another 17 times last year. The Los Angeles Dodgers also project to take another run at a World Series title in 2023. I'm anticipating plenty of opportunities to pad the wins column again this season and think this is a fair price. 

The good news is Scherzer is healthy entering the 2023 season after oblique injuries limited him to 23 starts in his New York Mets debut last year. Unfortunately, Scher zer's fastball velocity has dipped in each of the past three seasons, and he's also failed to flirt with 200 innings in all three. The bad outweighs the good for me.

Multiple trips to the IL took a toll on McClanahan in 2022, and after recording nine wins before the All Star Break, he finished with just 13 for the campaign. The 25-year-old southpaw logged a career-high 166 1/3 innings across 28 starts, but it's clear the increased workload took a toll. It'll take another uptick in starts and innings to take a run at leading the league in wins in 2023, so I'm fading McClanahan in this market because I'm concerned with his durability.

Fried has evolved into one of the most reliable starters in baseball, and he's succeeded without featuring an overpowering fastball. The lefty has won 14 games in consecutive seasons, and he recorded a career-high 17 victories in 2019. I'm passing on Fried in this market – and price – because I consider his upside capped by pitching in the potentially competitive NL East.

Burns checks out among the elite starters in the league, and he's in the middle of his prime entering his age-28 campaign. The 2021 NL CY Young winner only has 23 wins across 61 starts the past two years, though. It could be argued he's set to see statistical correction in the wins column, but I'm going to take a wait-and-see approach and see if a longer number presents itself during the season.

I'm bullish about Manoah's career trajectory, and after posting a 0.88 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across six September starts to conclude the 2022 campaign, I'm not concerned about him wearing down over the course of the season. Simply put, Manoah is mispriced in this market, and I'm happy to add him to my betting portfolio.

Check out our 2023 MLB MVP odds.

MLB 2023 wins leader odds: Contenders

It was a breakout campaign for Valdez in 2022. He posted career-best marks in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts and ERA. His 201 1/3 innings were almost 65 more than his 2021 total, which is an immediate warning sign for me. I'm concerned about another hefty workload taking a toll on Valdez and/or the Houston Astros brass being cautious with his starts and innings down the stretch. Still, with the well-rounded Astros looking to go back-to-back, Valdez is primed to tally up wins.

The Cleveland Guardians ace quietly goes about his business and took home the AL Cy Young and triple crown award during the shortened 2020 campaign. It was the lone year Bieber was a contender to lead baseball in wins, though, and his pitch repertoire doesn't hang with the elite starters. The only shop to back Bieber in this market is BetMGM. The odds at the other sportsbook s are too short for me.

Considering deGrom is already nursing a minor injury, and he's started just 38 games across the past three seasons, I'm not interested in backing him in this betting market. I also view the Texas Rangers as a middle-of-the-road club that won't help him pile up wins.

Injuries plagued Rodon for years, but he'll return to the AL following his best season since entering the league in 2015. His advanced statistics have been elite the past two years, and he's better positioned to collect wins pitching for the New York Yankees than at any other point in his career. Still, given his injury history, BetMGM is the only shop offering a reasonable price.

I'm expecting the Chicago White Sox to improve this year following a disappointing showing last season. I'll be a boon to Cease's upside in the wins column. He's started 32 games in consecut ive years and threw a career-high 184 innings in 2022. Cease is set to be a contender in this betting market all season.

Check out our 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Odds.

MLB 2023 wins leader odds: Long shots

Lady luck shunned Gausman in his first season with the Toronto Blue Jays to the tune of an unsustainably-high .363 BABIP, and he also went 4-7 at the Rogers Centre. As a result, a splash of statistical correction could go a long way in Year 2 with the Blue Jays. Toronto boasts an improved lineup, and Gausman has proven durable with 64 starts across the past two seasons. I'm backing the veteran righty at the inflated odds available through BetMGM.

The price at most of our best sportsbooks is too short for Alcantara. He recorded double-digit wins (14) for the first time in his career last season, and more concerning, it required him throwing an MLB-h igh six complete games. It's worth noting that BetMGM is offering the best odds to back Alcantara in this market by a considerable margin.

Strider made his first start of 2022 on May 30, and he never looked back. The righty posted a 10-4 record with an otherworldly 1.92 FIP across 20 starts and put together a legitimate claim to win the NL Rookie of the Year. There's room for negative regression without taking a huge hit in the wins column, but the NL East is top heavy, and I also worry about the Atlanta Braves being cautious with his workload. 

The Philadelphia Phillies are among the World Series contenders again in 2023, and Wheeler enters the season healthy after missing time last year with forearm tendinitis. As long as Philadelphia outfielder Bryce Harper returns before the All-Star Break to bolster the lineup, Wheeler should stay in the conversation to pace the league in wins. Still, Harper's too important to the Phillies for me to back Wheeler in this betting market until the slugger's return timeline is more concrete. 

Darvish won 16 times and started 30 games for a second consecutive season in 2022, so I'm viewing the +5000 odds as a nice addition to my betting portfolio for this market. The San Diego Padres have a star-studded lineup to provide run support, and Darvish has been incredibly durable since his injury-shortened 2018 campaign. 

Pitching for a legitimate contender and starting home games at T-Mobile Park should pave the way for Castillo to approach or pass his prior career-high 15 wins during the 2019 campaign. He's rightfully positioned among the long shots through BetMGM, but he's also a pitcher I'm going to watch in April. The Seattle Mariners have a potentially tough schedule the first month of the season.

While no one should expect Gonsolin to repeat his dominant 2022 campaign, he has room for negative regression without taking a big hit in the wins column. The 28-year-old righty is starting for a World Series contender, and if Gonsolin is able to approach 30 starts he could contend to lead baseball in wins again this season. I'm steering clear, but it's still a little surprising to see a 16-game winner from last year this far down the odds lists.

Check out our 2023 World Baseball Classic odds.

Recent MLB wins leaders

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Opening odds from SportsOddsHistory.com

MLB wins leader FAQs

The pitcher who leads the league in wins upon the conclusion of the regular season is the winner.

Atlanta Braves righty Kyle Wright led the league with 21 wins last season.

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