It’s officially the week of Opening Day. Although the Dodgers and Padres opened up the season in Korea a few days ago, the true Opening Day happens this Thursday. All signs point to an exciting season as Shohei Ohtani settles into his new team, Ronald Acuna Jr. looks to get the Braves back into the postseason, and Juan Soto attempts to lead the Yankees past the Orioles in the AL East. But before the season can get started, I looked into the win totals market and found three best bets for 2024.
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 103.5 Wins (-115)
Yes, you read that right. I'm taking the star-powered, MVP-filled, Ohtani-led Los Angeles Dodgers to go under their win total. Originally, the Dodgers' win total was set at 104.5 before being bumped down a win. That demonstrates that there was a lot of money being placed on the under before the change. However, I didn't just pick this because of that. There are several reasons the Dodgers won't reach 104 wins, but most importantly – injuries. Los Angeles has a lineup and starting rotation that has several players who fight through at least one injury-list stint each year. That's especially true in their rotation.
Tyler Glasnow has pitched over 100 innings just twice in his career and it wouldn't be surprising if Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts to falter in the second half of the season since the MLB season is longer and has far more traveling than in other leagues. Plus, Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw, and Walker Buehler are starting the season on the injured list. In summary, 104 wins would be possible if every star player stayed healthy, but it's a 162-game season, and that's nearly impossible.
New York Yankees Under 91.5 Wins (-110)
I promise I'm not just taking the big franchises to go under their total. The Yankees have been projected to win the AL East this season after a flurry of offseason moves which featured New York acquiring Juan Soto and Marcus Stroman. Those two moves satisfied two major needs – outfield and pitching depth. However, the Yankees might need even more pitching depth since Gerrit Cole will miss the first two months of the season. That leaves the starting rotation as Stroman, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Gil. Admittedly, I don't have a lot of confidence in Rodon or Gil.