MLB value plays for Saturday, May 27
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today's menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Giants vs. Brewers Total 7.5. Greg’s Total 8.1.
The Giants are second in the National League in home runs per game on the road. They get to face struggling Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, who has a career home ERA of 3.56 with 1.1 home runs per nine innings compared to a 2.96 road ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Giants starter Logan Webb has struggled on the road throughout his career, posting a lifetime 2.84 ERA with 0.4 home runs per nine innings at home compared to a 3.98 ERA and 0.9 home runs per nine innings away from home. The Giants’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA in the National League. Red Sox (-135) vs. Diamondbacks. Greg’s Line: Diamondbacks -108. Garrett Whitlock of the Red Sox and Zach Davies of the Diamondbacks are both making their first start since April due to injured list stints, and both have ERAs above 5.50. The Red Sox bullpen is 21st in ERA the past 30 days while the Diamondbacks rank 17th in this span. The Red Sox offense has fallen off in road games this season, averaging six runs per game at home compared to 4.5 runs per game on the road. Marlins vs. Angels (-1.5, +100). Greg’s Line: Angels (-1.5, -125). The Marlins are averaging the fewest runs per game of any team in the National League and have to face Shohei Ohtani, whose opponents batting average of .142 is the best among qualifying starting pitchers. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has lacked command with six walks per nine innings and a 5.05 ERA with at least three runs allowed in four of his last six starts.