OddsJam’s MLB experts take you through the best Strikeout MLB Player Prop Picks for today.
Daily MLB Strikeout Prop Pick – July 27, 2022
Corbin Burnes burned us on his last outing. He did not finish counts, ran his pitch count up early and often, and made his life harder than it needed to be in that game. He ended with just 5Ks and didn’t make it past the 5th innings.
However, I will forgive him. It was his first start after the ASG. Have you ever come back to work after a vacation and totally forget what a stapler is or how to operate in your office? Yea, I am chalking it up to that feeling.
Burnes has a great chance to take command in a matinee game. While his ERA is higher (at 2.66) in day games, his K/IP increases. He also must like missing bats at home too, averaging 8.4 Ks at home compared to 7.2 per game on the road.
In his last 18 starts, he has 7+ Ks in 13 of them, only once did he go back to back with 6 or fewer strikeouts. Burnes has also only had three stretches where he had home starts strung together. They were met with a three-game span of 10, 11, 10 Ks, and two other times were the second straight start he had 8 and 9 Ks. I like him to hone in this second home start.
The Twins in July have a low 20.8% K rate against righties, it is bottom ten in the MLB. However, they have faced some lower K-rate guys like Rony Garcia, Michael Pineda, and others. Listen, Tyler Wells and Jordan Lyles, both had 7K outings against MIN this month. If they can do it, a top strikeout arm in the game should have his chances.
I don't think it is just strikeouts today, I think he should shut the door. The Twin’s offense in July has awakened, which should bring Burnes up to the challenge. The last two “good” offenses Burnes has faced were the Braves and Blue Jays and he bested both of them.
The main reason I like the “win” part of things is that the Twins really burned through the bullpen last night. This is not ideal to see going into a Chris Archer start, who averages around 4 innings per start. Not to mention he has struggled in the day, with an ERA of 4.40 and 0-3 record in day games.
The Brewers are hitting .276 against righties at home this month and have a big advantage in the pitching matchup here. Plus, the Brewers are 4-1 in the last five games Burnes has reached 7Ks. I like this PPD down to -120.
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Daily MLB Strikeout Prop Pick – July 26, 2022
Let's attack another Toronto PPD, they have been kind to us. Tonight it is Jose Berrios on the mound, who has an ERA over five on the year. However, unlike Kyle Freeland’s splits where you can only touch his props on the road, Berrios is only touchable at home.
On the season Berrios is 5-0 with a 3.33 ERA at home, which is a little better than his 7.15 ERA. In five of his last seven home starts he has had 5+ Ks, with one of the misses coming one K short. In four of those five, he has soared over 5. In his last two starts, both at home, Berrios has 13 and 7 Ks.
The biggest concern on paper would be the Cardinals stacking lefties (should see four of them and 1-2 switch hitters) against Berrios. On the season lefties are hitting well off him, with a K rate of just 18.2%. However, there are two reasons I am okay with this.< /p>
One reason is because you have to look at his strikeout rate between road and home games. That lefty 18.2% rate is split drastically. He strikes out lefties at just a 12.2% clip on the road, but 23.4% when he sees them at home. Overall, Berrios has a 28.6% K rate at home compared to a 15.9% on the road.
The second reason is that the reason we will see more lefties is due to vaccination status Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado cannot play. This means that Nolan Gorman should slide in for Arenado at third base. Yes, while he is a lefty, he is a lefty with a 35.6% strikeout rate.
There are a few high K rate targets for Berrios today against a team that is hitting just .189 and striking out at a 25% rate when seeing righties over the last thirty days. The Cardinals on the season are also 11-19 (36.7%) when on the road as underdogs. They are also just 3-7 off a day of rest and now without their two best players.
Daily MLB Strikeout Prop Pick – July 25, 2022
To be frank, I do not like the Monday slate much. I do not believe I have many edges on most of these lines. That being said, there were 2-3 lines I had circled but settled on just one pick.
Kyle Freeland has not been “good” this year, with his ERA sitting just under 5. The good news is that he is better on the road, with a more acceptable 4.11 ERA when away from Coors Field. The thing with strikeouts is that they aren't necessarily tied to ERA. Heck, in his last start Freeland allowed five runs in just 3.2 innings, but struck out six.