MLB Streaks: Handicapping 14 unique betting systems
Like clockwork, it seems that the month of June always welcomes an inordinate amount of lengthy winning and losing streaks in Major League Baseball. Call it the “Dog Days of Summer.” This point in the season always finds certain teams on ridiculous rolls or in inescapable ruts. In 2023, so far we have seen extraordinary runs by teams like the Giants, Reds, Braves, Red Sox, and Phillies while teams like the Brewers, Mets, Royals, Rockies, and Pirates couldn’t seem to catch a break during losing skids. At the same time, previously putrid Oakland went on a seven-game heater itself before falling into another slide. As you can see these stretches of unusual play can affect any level team, baseball is just that type of game and that long of a season where it happens.
Most of the time these stretches don’t define a team’s season, but it does make for some interesting betting data that can be employed to take advantage of such streaks. Let’s dig into some of the best betting systems that have developed lately using MLB streak data. I started the analysis at the four-game mark for both winning and losing streaks
Using data through Wednesday, June 21st, since the start of the 2021 season, there have been 406 different stretches of teams losing at least four games in a row and 411 such runs of four straight wins. Each consecutive added game from those points goes down proportionately. Here is a list of the different streak lengths and the teams’ records in the game following that streak:
Losing Streaks – record next game
L4: 201-205 (49.5%) +33.68 units, ROI: 8.3%
L5: 90-112 (44.6%) +-5.93 units, ROI: -2.9%
L6: 47-66 (41.6%) +-1.58 units, ROI: -1.4%
L7: 21-43 (32.8%) +-13.3 units, ROI: -20.8%
L8: 12-30 (28.6%) +-13.73 units, ROI: -32.7%
L9: 12-17 (41.4%) +0.17 units, ROI: 0.6%
L10+: 17-36 (32.1%) +-12.96 units, ROI: -24.5%
Winning Streaks – record next game
W4: 215-196 (52.3%) +-17.74 units, ROI: -4.3%
W5: 122-93 (56.7%) +3.26 units, ROI: 1.5%
W6: 72-50 (59.0%) +5.54 units, ROI: 4.5%
W7: 41-30 (57.7%) +-0.02 units, ROI: 0.0%
W8: 25-16 (61.0%) +-0.3 units, ROI: -0.7%
W9: 16-9 (64.0%) +5.5 units, ROI: 22.0%
W10+: 32-14 (69.6%) +13.64 units, ROI: 29.7%
Essentially, the early data is very promising regarding streaks. At the four-game mark, both winning and losing, it has been profitable to bet the opposite way as more streaks tend to end than not at this point. On the losing streak side, it would seem to be a good time to abandon ship afterward. On the winning streak side, it’s not a bad strategy to follow any streaking team once they survive that fifth game. In fact, once you get up to the nine-win mark, the positive ROI percentages reach absurdly high levels.
Of course, whenever I dig into data sets and find information as promising as that which I just shared, I always like to dig deeper. Some of the variables I looked to add into the mix included game locales, lines, quality of team, level of play during the streak, and a few others. Take a look at some of the streak betting systems I uncovered. Use these in the coming weeks and months to build your bankroll off of streaking teams:
Losing Streak Betting System #1
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 22-66 skid (-28.2 units, ROI -32%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
These teams are simply playing too bad of baseball to take a chance, even at heavy underdog pricing.
Losing Streak Betting System #2
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 41-91 skid (-28.4 units, ROI: -21.5%).
These teams are not good overall and now they streaking bad, not a good combination.
Losing Streak Betting System #3
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 49-111 (-46.6 units, ROI: -29.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
These teams streaking poorly are either more motivated to beat better teams or the quality opponent is taking them for granted. Although not counted in this result as the game occurred Thursday night, the Royals beating Tampa Bay qualified under the first angle.