MLB Rookie of the Year Odds 2023: Targeting Probable Opening Day Starters With Preseason Bets

Perhaps no award in sports is more indicative of the future than Rookie of the Year. That's no different in Major League Baseball, as some of today's brightest stars were once recognized as the league's top rookies. Check out our picks for the 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Awards based on the top baseball odds.

The list of recent Rookie of the Year winners is a star-studded group, featuring multiple perennial Most Valuable Player and Cy Young candidates. Is baseball's next superstar among this season's group of rookies?

There are two things I'm targeting with MLB Rookie of the Year futures before the season starts. First, I'm focusing on players who are projected to start the campaign in the big leagues. Their odds are more likely to shorten with a hot start, while those who begin in the minors will become bigger long shots than they are now.

Secondly, I want players with superstar intangibles. For hitters, that's the ultra-valuable combination of power and speed. Home runs and stolen bases are sexy, especially when it comes to handing out awards. For pitchers, that's stuff: I want a big fastball and something nasty to mix with it.

With that in mind, here is our look at the best odds for the 2023 Rookie of the Year winner in the American and National leagues, and our top picks.

Check out our 2023 World Series Odds.

MLB 2023 American League Rookie of the Year odds

MLB 2023 American League Rookie of the Year best bets

• Gunnar Henderson (+350 via Caesars) – Feb. 16, 2023
• Masataka Yoshida (+1000 via BetMGM) – Feb. 16, 2023

MLB 2023 American League Rookie of the Year odds: Favorites

Gunnar Henderson owns the shortest odds among any rookie this season, and for good reason. MLB Pipeline's No. 1 prospect offered Baltimore Orioles fans a little taste last season of what could come in 2023, slashing .259/.348/.440 with four home runs in 34 games.

Henderson features the aforementioned power-speed combination. He'll benefit from both hitting in the heart of a much-improved Orioles lineup and opponents' lack of defensive shifting thanks to the new rules. He'll have to battle with Oriole Park's updated dimensions – it went from the most hitter-friendly ballpark in 2021 per Baseball Savant's park factor to No. 24 last year – but being a lefty should mitigate some of the challenges the new redesigned left-field wall poses.

Steamer projects Henderson to accrue the second-most WAR among all rookies this season, with only Masataka Yoshida ahead of him (more on him soon). With the Orioles expected to be a better ball club, and potentially even contend for a playoff spot, Henderson's odds could shorten early in the season if he gets off to a hot start.

As a Boston Red Sox fan, I'm excited for Triston Casas. As a Rookie of the Year bettor, I'm staying away until we get a better look at how he adapts to major-league pitching. The 23-year-old is projected to be Boston's Opening Day first baseman, so it won't take long to gather that information.

Casas has the necessary pop to win the awa rd, and, like Henderson and other left-handed hitters across MLB, will benefit from infields being forced to play him more straight-up.

He did strike out at a 24.2% clip in limited big-league action last season, but he also owned a 20% walk rate. Casas owned a similarly elite walk rate at every level of the minors, too. He doesn't hit quite enough line drives, but we've seen young hitters make adjustments when they get regular playing time in the majors.

I won't be betting on Casas before Opening Day, but he's one of the rookies I'll keep a close watch on.

Royce Lewis' range of odds properly illustrates how much of a question mark he is entering this season.

Lewis tore his ACL again – the second time in two years – last season, marking an end to his campaign and the excitement surrounding it. However, that injury is only one issue pl aguing Lewis' Rookie of the Year case this season.

The second reason for my hesitation is that I'm not quite sure where he fits in the Minnesota Twins' lineup. Sure, they could make room for him by shifting Byron Buxton to designated hitter and putting Lewis back in the outfield (where he just injured himself), or simply trot out Lewis at DH.

However, the Twins look like legitimate contenders this season, and they could be more hesitant to roll out their oft-injured rookie at the expense of any projected starter.

Wait on Lewis because, at the very least, he's very unlikely to start the season healthy and will inevitably see his odds lengthen in the early stages of the campaign.

Check out our 2023 World Baseball Classic odds.

MLB 2023 American League Rookie of the Year odds: Contenders

Yoshida possesses perhaps the most valuable attribute for a rookie: experience. The 29-year-old is a seven-year veteran of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball, and he joins a Red Sox team in desperate need of the offensive jolt he's capable of providing.

The outfielder is projected to start the season atop Boston's lineup, and his impressive bat-to-ball and on-base skills could prove ultra-valuable with star third baseman Rafael Devers slated to hit out of the three-spot. Yoshida slashed .336/.449/.559 to go along with 21 homers for the Orix Buffaloes last season.

Yoshida has elite plate discipline and solid power, and if he can adjust to MLB pitching quickly, these preseason odds will look like excellent value. The Red Sox may find themselves in the basement of the AL East, but they're providing us with two exciting options in this market.

The b est argument for Grayson Rodriguez's Rookie of the Year case is that the Orioles' rotation is less than stellar, which means he should almost certainly hold down a spot should he have a solid spring training.

Rodriguez was elite over 69 2/3 innings (14 starts) in Triple-A last season. He owned a 2.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP to go along with 12.53 strikeouts per nine innings.

The 23-year-old righty has displayed good control at every level in the minors. Combine that with his ability to punch out batters at an impressive clip and the aforementioned updated Oriole Park dimensions, and his rates could look very tasty by season's end.

Steamer projects Rodriguez to pitch to a 3.82 ERA over 139 innings this season. Any rookie pitcher with numbers in that range has a good chance to take home the hardware, and I think his stats could be even better than that.

My only reservation with Rodriguez is that a pitcher hasn't been crowned the AL Rookie of the Year since Michael Fulmer in 2016. Between that trend and the quality bats available in this market, I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with the Orioles' young righty.

Speaking of rookie pitchers with impressive 2023 projections, Hunter Brown looks like the future of the Houston Astros' pitching staff. Brown has one major issue holding him back this season, though, and that's the fact that the Astros' rotation is absolutely stacked.

Steamer projects Brown to make 10 starts in 54 pitching appearances, which may not be enough to put him ahead of Rodriguez if the two own similar numbers. However, if the argument against Brown is his lack of access to starts, then the argument for him is Lance McCullers and his inability to stay healthy.

If McCullers suffers his seemingly ye arly injury, Brown could get the first crack at a spot in the rotation. We saw fellow Astros pitcher Cristian Javier take advantage of injuries to the staff last year after making just nine starts in 2021. Perhaps Brown can do the same this season, but I imagine we'll see him deployed mostly out of the bullpen.

Josh Jung made his long-awaited MLB debut last season, and it didn't exactly go smoothly. He slashed .204/.235/.418 over 102 plate appearances. He managed to hit five homers but unfortunately combined that with a 38.2% strikeout rate.

Fortunately, he's projected to serve as the Texas Rangers' Opening Day third baseman and owns the necessary power to make an impact a the big-league level. If Jung is able to limit the strikeouts, he could find himself alongside the other Rookie of the Year contenders.

However, he doesn't possess a ton of speed and will be hitting toward the bottom of Texas' lineup. For those reasons, as well as what we saw last year (even in a small sample size), I'm avoiding him at his current price.

MLB 2023 American League Rookie of the Year odds: Long shots

It seems no one really has any idea about what the New York Yankees' plan is at shortstop. Veteran Isiah Kiner-Falefa is definitely on the outs with Yankees fans (if not the organization, too), and rookies Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza are exciting options. 

The question remains, though, who will start? Volpe and Peraza are priced similarly at most of our top-rated sportsbooks, though the former owns slightly shorter odds.

Both rookies offer an interesting blend of power and speed, but it'll be difficult for either shortstop to beat out Henderson. For what it's worth, too, Peraza is currently projected to serve as the team's Opening Day shortstop.

The last catcher to win Rookie of the Year was Buster Posey in 2010. Logan O'Hoppe is a long shot at +2500 with Caesars, but he owns odds as short as +1000 at DraftKings and PointsBet.

The 23-year-old is projected to serve as the Los Angeles Angels' Opening Day catcher after playing five games with the club last season following a trade from the Philadelphia Phillies.

However, not only does O'Hoppe face some competition at his position with defensive specialist Max Stassi serving as the Angels' other catcher, but he also won't get any extra plate appearances at DH, with Shohei Ohtani occupying that role.

Serving as a team's new catcher is tough enough, but doing so as a rookie is an entirely different animal. O'Hoppe could definitely experience some growing pains. Overall, +2 500 is probably a better reflection of O'Hoppe's odds to be crowned AL Rookie of the Year.

American League Rookie of the Year Past Winners

MLB 2023 National League Rookie of the Year odds

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MLB 2023 National League Rookie of the Year best bets

• Corbin Carroll (+400 via DraftKings) – Feb. 16, 2023
• Ezequiel Tovar (+1200 via FanDuel) – Feb. 16, 2023

MLB 2023 National League Rookie of the Year odds: Favorites

As was the case with Henderson, we already got a decent look at Carroll to close out the 2022 season. The rookie accrued 1.4 WAR in only 32 games, and he wowed fans with his combination of power and speed despite some glaring weaknesses in his plate approach (he didn't walk quite as much as one would expect from his minor-league profile).

Steamer projects Carroll to continue to produce in a similar manner in 2023, with a lower average being buoyed by plenty of home runs and steals.

Carroll is expected to start the campaign a s the Arizona Diamondbacks' leadoff hitter. With the new shift restrictions potentially aiding his batting average and the bigger bases leading to some extra steals, Carroll could be in for a truly monster rookie season. I'm adding Carroll to my portfolio sooner rather than later, because he could be minus money by May.

Miguel Vargas is in an interesting position. On the bright side, he plays for the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers. He's projected to start the season as the No. 9 hitter, which will result in fewer plate appearances but could lead to more runs scored, with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman hitting behind him.

However, there's a negative side to playing for the Dodgers, too. Los Angeles is a perennial World Series contender, and it features a couple of solid infield options on its bench with Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor. If Vargas starts the season slow or suffers any kind of minor injury e arly in the campaign, he could find himself relegated to a bench role for a prolonged period.

I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with the Dodgers rookie.

If I'm going to bet on any pitcher to take home this season's Rookie of the Year Award before the campaign gets underway, it's Kodai Senga.

The 30-year-old NPB veteran was downright spectacular for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks last season. He pitched to a 1.89 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to go along with 159 strikeouts over 148 innings.

There are some concerns about his potential workload, but he threw 180-plus innings as recently as 2019. Additionally, very few starters record 200-plus innings in this era of baseball.

Senga is expected to begin the season in the New York Mets' rotation, and Steamer projects only eight of his 34 pitching appearances to be out of the bullpen. Those will likely be toward the end of the season, too.

Therefore, even if he's moved to the bullpen in the latter stages of the campaign, he should do enough as a starter to put himself in Rookie of the Year contention if the numbers are as expected (3.72 ERA, 10.23 K/9). The powerhouse Mets should also provide him with plenty of opportunities to record wins.

MLB 2023 National League Rookie of the Year odds: Contenders

There's certainly a case to be made for Jordan Walker, despite the fact he's not expected to begin the season with the St. Louis Cardinals. He was an absolute monster in Double-A last year, recording 19 homers to go with 22 steals and a .306/.388/.510 line in 119 games.

Last season's NL Rookie of the Year, Michael Harris, similarly didn't begin the season with the Atlanta Braves, first playing 43 gam es with their Double-A affiliate. He proceeded to nearly go 20-20 with the Braves, and his minor-league numbers weren't as impressive as Walker's were last year.

Walker is completely blocked in the infield – the Cardinals have the best infield defense in baseball – but is reportedly working on his outfield defense in an attempt to join the team sooner rather than later. Tyler O'Neill is almost certainly a lock in the outfield, as is Lars Nootbar.

However, Dylan Carlson continues to underwhelm and the Cardinals don't have a true DH. Walker could find himself with the big-league club if he mashes minor-league hitting to start the year, and if Carlson and/or Juan Yepez struggle.

I seem to fall for this potential trap every season, but yes, I would like to invest in a Colorado Rockies rookie. Coors Field is the great equalizer for Ezequiel Tovar, who's projected to ba t at the bottom of a relatively weak Rockies lineup.

Much like the other rookie hitters I'm buying before the season gets underway, Tovar has that combination of power and speed. He also has the distinct advantage of pairing that with a potentially very strong average. Steamer projects Tovar to record 14 home runs and 12 steals to go along with a .273 average.

The latter is the most exciting part of his profile, because he could easily hit his way to Colorado's leadoff spot (Yonathan Daza is projected to begin the season there). If Tovar is able to climb out of the No. 9 role and become the Rockies' leadoff hitter, his counting stats could push him ahead of the other rookie hitters.

The Mets are absolutely stacked entering the 2023 campaign. However, if there's one position at which they're lacking high-end talent, it's catcher. Enter, Francisco Alvarez.

The 21-year-old made a brief appearance with the Mets last season and managed to hit his first career major-league homer despite just logging 14 plate appearances. The talent is certainly there, but the biggest issue is a potential lack of playing time.

Steamer projects Alvarez to play just 32 games with the Mets this season, and even if he is given any extended time behind the plate for the big-league club, catcher is perhaps the hardest position for a rookie to thrive in.

He'll be working with almost an entirely new pitching staff – only two of the Mets' five projected starters were with the team last year – and that work behind the plate could lead to some growing pains as a hitter.

Additionally, Mets general manager Billy Eppler has made it clear that he's not willing to fast-track Alvarez to the big-league club as a DH at the expense of his growth as a catcher. I'd wait for the young Venezuelan's odds to lengthen when he inevitably begins the season at Triple-A.

MLB 2023 National League Rookie of the Year odds: Long shots

Cade Cavalli had a bit of an up-and-down 2022 season. He was good, not great, for the Washington Nationals' Triple-A affiliate. He pitched to a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 97 innings before making a single start for the big-league club.

The Cincinnati Reds annihilated him in his lone MLB start to the tune of seven runs over 4 1/3 innings. He dealt with some shoulder inflammation shortly after that, marking the end of his campaign.

However, Cavalli has a lot of things working in his favor. He has a big fastball that plays at the major-league level, and he should secure a spot in the Nats' starting rotation as long as he doesn't completely capitulate in spring training.

He's projected to make around 23 starts for Washington this season, which should be enough to put him in the Rookie of the Year conversation as long as he pitches well enough.

Spencer Steer isn't going to be featured in a national spotlight while playing for a truly pitiful Reds team, but he has an advantage over his contemporaries similar to that of Tovar. Steer gets to play his home games at Great American Small Ball Park. According to Baseball Savant's park factor, GABP was far and away the most homer-friendly ballpark in 2022.

Steamer projects Steer to hit only 14 home runs in 2023, but that's also over just 105 games. Steer is expected to begin the season as the Reds' starting third baseman, and if he holds that job throughout the season, he'll easily eclipse those projections.

The Reds featured a Roo kie of the Year winner as recently as 2021 when Jonathan India won the award. India hit 21 homers despite never displaying any real power in the minors. Meanwhile, Steer hit 15 long balls in just 71 games in Triple-A last year between the Reds' and Minnesota Twins' minor-league affiliates.

I'm still waiting on Steer, as I think the shine of some of the NL's more high-profile stars could lead to his odds lengthening over the first month of the season. However, if he gets off to a hot start, add him to your portfolio before it's too late.

Sal Frelick took the minors by storm last year after the Milwaukee Brewers drafted him 15th overall in 2021. He started the season in High-A before promptly moving to Double-A. He then made the move to Triple-A, which is when he truly put on a show. Over 119 games in the minors, he hit 11 home runs and stole 24 bases to go with a .331/.403/.480 slash line.

Frelick could make his major-league debut sooner than anticipated if he continues to play at that level. The Brewers aren't exactly stacked – especially in the outfield – but will still likely be in the playoff mix thanks to their elite pitching. Therefore, if Frelick can help Milwaukee win games, the team won't hesitate to call him up.

As is the case with any player likely to start the season in the minors, I'm waiting to buy Frelick. But keep a close eye on the MLB Pipeline's 30th-ranked prospect.

National League Rookie of the Year Past Winners

MLB Rookie of the Year FAQs

There's no set date for the announcement of the 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year Awards, but last season's winners were unveiled on Nov. 14, 2022.

Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez won the award in the American League, and Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris was the National League's recipient.

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