Five new series begin Tuesday to round out a full 15-game Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
Four of the five new series starting today are between teams .500 or better. The Baltimore Orioles are five games behind the Tampa Bay Rays heading into their showdown of the top two teams in the AL East, while both Los Angeles teams occupy wild-card spots at the moment as the Angels host the Dodgers.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via PointsBet and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Kansas City Royals (+125) vs. Detroit Tigers (-145)
- Baltimore Orioles (+150) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-175)
- A tlanta Braves (-150) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+130)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-105) vs. Miami Marlins (-115)
- Chicago Cubs (-125) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+105)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-145) vs. Washington Nationals (+125)
- Seattle Mariners (+110) vs. New York Yankees (-130)
- Colorado Rockies (+145) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-170)
- Oakland Athletics (+190) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-225)
- Boston Red Sox (+120) vs. Minnesota Twins (-140)
- New York Mets (+120) vs. Houston Astros (-140)
- Texas Rangers (-135) vs. Chicago White Sox (+115)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
- San Diego Padres (-105) vs. San Francisco Giants (-115)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+125)
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Austin Riley Over 0.5 RBIs (+145 via FanDuel) vs. Phillies ????
- Player prop: Gerrit Cole Over 7.5 strikeouts (-155 via PointsBet) vs. Mariners ????
- Player prop: Jorge Soler to hit a home run (+370 via FanDuel) vs. Blue Jays ???
- Run line: Reds -1.5 vs. Rockies (+114 via FanDuel) ????
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Tuesday's MLB prop picks
The Atlanta Braves offense has been a machine of late, entering Monday with 61 runs scored over the last seven days, nine more than the next-best team (the San Francisco Giants) and 18 more than the third-most. Not surprisingly, the Braves lead the majors in on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA in that span.
Atlanta now faces Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez, who has allowed an OBA of .298 and a WHIP of 1.57 when pitching to right-handed batters, versus a .133 OBA and 0.56 WHIP against lefties. And while Riley has gone just 5-for-29 with one RBI over the last seven days, he is due for positive regression and is always in a position to drive in runs hitting third in a powerful Braves lineup. This is a four-star play, as Riley is 5-for-12 with a 1.117 OPS in his career against Suarez and will have to do the heavy lifting given that teammates Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies are a combined 4-for-22 with just one extra-base hit against the lefty.
FanDuel is our go-to shop for this wager, as DraftKings is the only other sportsbook offering at least +140 odds.
New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is likely licking his chops to face this Seattle Mariners offense after Chicago White Sox starter Lance Lynn struck out 16 Mariners on Sunday. That was an historic start for Lynn, per ESPN Stats & Info, as he became the first pitcher since 1913 with an ERA north of 6.00 to record 16 strikeouts in a game.
Cole has had tremendous career success against Seattle, holding current Mariners hitters to a combined .195/.224/.404 slash line in 128 career at-bats. Furthermore, 38 of the 103 outs recorded in that span (36.9%) have been strikeouts. If Cole records 18 outs for the fifth time in six starts, he would be on pace for 6.64 strikeouts, so we are comfortable backing the Over, given how whiff-prone the Mariners have been of late (25th in strikeout rate over the last seven days).
PointsBet and DraftKings charge the same price for this wager. FanDuel sticks out as the only sportsbook offering a line of O/U 8.5 K's, with the Over juiced to +120.
Miami Marlins slugger Jorge Soler has mashed left-handed pitching this year, slugging .860 with a 1.301 OPS and .526 ISO. Nine of his 21 home runs have come against lefties (in just 57 at-bats), de spite 132 fewer at-bats in that split entering Monday. Soler has taken Toronto Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi deep twice in six career at-bats and has an excellent chance to do so again since Kikuchi had surrendered an MLB-worst 19 home runs entering Monday.
Kikuchi has allowed 16 of his 19 home runs to right-handed batters and ranks in the 14th percentile or worse in barrels and xSLG.
FanDuel has by far the best number for this wager, as PointsBet is the next closest at +330 odds. At that price, we find more value than backing Soler's +125 odds to record 2+ total bases, or +160 odds to record an RBI.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
Don't look now, but the Cincinnati Reds are quietly a half-game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central after a nine-game winning streak, eight of which came on the road. The Reds have averaged 6.11 runs per game during that span, which has us ignoring the fact that they rank 18th in wRC+ in home games against left-handed pitchers. However, Cincinnati was always due for regression in that metric, considering it entered Monday ranked fourth in BABIP (.351) and seventh in wOBA against southpaws at home.
Cincinnati's offensive success should continue against Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, who has pitched to a 5.92 ERA in seven road starts compared to a 3.19 ERA in eight starts at Coors Field. In addition, the Rockies have lost each of Freeland's last four starts, getting outscored 18-6 in that span.
This is a four-star play, as Cincinnati entered Monday 21-14 (.600, 14.6% ROI) against the run line at home this season, the third-best in MLB. FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering better than +110 odds to lay the 1.5 runs.
MLB best bets made 6/20/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET.
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