A doubleheader between NL West rivals pushes the weekend slate to a loaded 16 games, and you can check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.
Just six days ago, the Tampa Bay Rays were a season-high four games out of first place in the AL East. But after winning the first two contests of their four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles, the two teams are in a virtual tie atop the division.
Elsewhere, just one game separates four teams for the final NL wild-card spot.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Saturday's MLB schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- San Francisco Giants (OFF) vs. Colorado Rockies Game 1
- San Francisco Giants (OFF) vs. Colorado Rockies Game 2
- Boston Red Sox (+110) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
- San Diego Padres (-148) vs. Oakland Athletics (+124)
- Atlanta Braves (-135) vs. Miami Marlins (+114)
- Texas Rangers (+102) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-122)
- New York Yankees (OFF) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Tampa Bay Rays (-122) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+102)
- Houston Astros (-148) vs. Kansas City Royals (+124)
- Cincinnati Reds (-115) vs. New York Mets (-105)
- Minnesota Twins (-225) vs. Chicago White Sox (+185)
- Washington Nationals (+220) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-270)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-120) vs. St. Louis Cardinals ( +100)
- Chicago Cubs (-115) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-105)
- Detroit Tigers (-112) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-108)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) vs. Seattle Mariners (+124)
Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: George Springer Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Red Sox (+100 via bet365) ???
- Player prop: Christian Yelich Over 1.5 total bases vs. Nationals (+105 via DraftKings) ???
- Player prop: Andrew Abbott Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Mets (-155 via bet365) ????
- Upset: Athletics (+134 via FanDuel) vs. Padres ????
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Saturday's MLB prop picks
The Toronto Blue Jays are still reeling from their first four-game home sweep in September in franchise history in their last series. The Texas Rangers outscored them by 26 runs, the Blue Jays' worst run-differential ever in a four-game series. However, we expect the Blue Jays to continue to fight hard for one of the AL's wild-card spots, and that starts with George Springer as the table-setter for their lineup.
Per Sportsnet Stats, Springer slashed .246/.314/.380 through the first 103 games but turned it up the last 36 entering Friday, slashing .302/.389/.489. Despite not scoring a run over the previous six games, Springer has scored at least one run in six of 14 September games.
This is a three-star play, as Springer is 7-for-25 with a .321 wOBA against Boston Red Sox southpaw Chris Sale, and he has pitched to a 5.17 ERA in his last seven starts.
DraftKings and bet365 both offer even-money odds for this wager, while Caesars is slightly higher at -110.
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off back-to-back series wins against the New York Yankees and Miami Marlins, and they played much of that stretch without leadoff man Christian Yelich, who sat out most of the week with back stiffness. However, Yelich returned to the lineup Friday, and we are confident he is healthy as the Brewers would likely not risk further injury as they have a comfortable lead in the NL Central.
This is only a three-star play, as Yelich has poor career numbers against Washington Nationals righty Trevor Williams (2-for-17 with eight strikeouts). However, this wager is more of a fade of Williams, who has allowed 14 earned runs and 20 hits in his last 8 1/3 innings and has pitched to a 7.31 ERA and a .320 OBA since the All-Star break.
The +105 odds at DraftKings look even more enticing knowing Caesars is on the low end of this wager with -105 odds.
The New York Mets are coming off a successful series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, winning three of the four games and outscoring them by 18 runs. The most impressive part was the damage they did to the Diamondbacks' top two starting pitchers, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, who they tagged for a combined 13 earned runs in 10 innings. However, the Mets have hit right-handed starting pitchers much better than lefties this season, as evidenced by their 54-49 record against righties and 14-30 record against southpaws, the second-worst winning percentage against southpaws in the majors.
Cincinnati Reds lefty Andrew Abbott will likely appreciate the seven days of rest he was given after his last start, in which he allowed six earned runs in four innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Abbott's OBA and WHIP are up to .248 and 1.36, respectively, post-All-Star break compared to .192 and 1.03 in the first half of the season. However, we expect him to dominate a Mets lineup that ranks bottom 10 in wRC+ and 29th in BABIP (.276) against southpaws.
DraftKings and Caesars offer -160 and -178 odds, respectively, for this wager, making bet365 our go-to shop.
Saturday's MLB game picks
The San Diego Padres have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. While they are coming off a series win against the Los Angeles Dodgers, they have won just one of their last five series against teams outside of the NL West. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics are a respectable 21-27 against teams under .500 this season, a far cry from their overall .313 winning percentage.
It is unclear if the A's will use Mason Miller in an opener role or for starter's innings, given that he has thrown just four combined innings in two September appearances but recorded at least 18 outs in two starts in May. Nevertheless, Miller's young career is off to an outstanding start, as he has pitched to a 2.84 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
This is a four-star play, as Miller throws his fastball and slider a combined 77.1% of the time, and he has allowed an OBA of .163 and .087 with those two pitches, which gives us confidence he will limit the San Diego offense.
FanDuel is the only shop at which one can back Oakland at greater than +130 odds.
MLB best bets made 9/16/2023 at 7:07 a.m. ET.
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