There will be 20 games or fewer left for several Major League Baseball teams after Saturday's action, so let's dive in with our MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
Was that the game the San Francisco Giants needed to turn their season around and catapult themselves back into the NL wild card hunt? The Giants erased two deficits of three-plus runs on Friday after the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies to avoid dropping under .500 for the first time since June 4.
Meanwhile, first place in the AL West could change hands on Saturday with the Seattle Mariners starting the day a half-game back of the Houston Astros.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Saturday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+124) vs. New York Yankees (-148)
- New York Mets (+124) vs. Minnesota Twins (-148)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) vs. Chicago Cubs (-142)
- Kansas City Royals (OFF) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-230) vs. Washington Nationals (+190)
- Seattle Mariners (+105) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-125)
- Baltimore Orioles (+124) vs. Boston Red Sox (-148)
- Miami Marlins (+154) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-185)
- Chicago White Sox (+170) vs. Detroit Tigers (-205)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-135) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+114)
- Oakland Athletics (OFF) vs. Texas Rangers
- San Diego Padres (+110) vs. Houston Astros (-130)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) vs. Atlanta Braves (-225)
- Colorado Rockies (+205) vs. San Francisco Giants (-250)
- Cleveland Guardians (-120) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+100)
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Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player Prop: DJ LeMahieu Over 0.5 runs scored (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Brewers ????
- Player Prop: Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+250 via FanDuel) vs. Marlins ???
- Player Prop: Lucas Giolito Under 2.5 earned runs (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Angels ???
- Moneyline: Cubs ML vs. Diamondbacks (-140 via BetMGM) ????
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Saturday's MLB prop picks
The New York Yankees' offense was held to just three runs on six hits when it faced Detroit Tigers southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez on Thursday. But the unit has hit lefties well all season, which makes us eager to back the Yankees with one of our player props.
New York ranks fifth in the majors in wRC+ and OPS against left-handed pitching in home games during 2023, and the team is sixth in BB/K ratio. It's easily the Yankees' best hitting split, but they rank 23rd in runs scored (596).
DJ LeMahieu has been strong for the Yankees, with a solid .983 OPS and .623 s lugging percentage over the last 15 days. LeMahieu has scored at least one run in three of seven September conte and four of his last nine overall. He's gone 8-for-24 hitting with a .346 wOBA during his career against Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Wade Miley, who has allowed 13 of his 15 home runs to right-handed hitters in 2023. This is a three-star play, as Miley ranks in the 29th percentile or worse in xERA and xBA.
Caesars and bet365 are at -125 and -115 odds for LeMahieu to score at least one run, so the best value for Over backers is found at DraftKings.
Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has recorded three hits in 12 career at-bats against Miami Marlins righty Johnny Cueto, and each knock has been a home run. Schwarber leads all qualified Phillies hitters with 20 home runs and a .291 ISO during home games. That speaks to his stereotypical “home run or nothing” approach, as he ranks fourth overall in sl ugging.
Cueto has allowed two home runs in three consecutive starts and four of his previous five. His 2.7 HR/9 rate is eye-popping, considering his previous career-worst was 1.7 in 2019.
Citizens Bank Park comes with the most significant adjustment of any host MLB stadium on Saturday in home runs hit, according to Ballpark Pal. We're therefore confident the Phillies will hit some home runs on Saturday and are making Schwarber our three-star play.
His odds at Caesars (+185) to homer are among the lowest for any MLB player on Saturday's slate, making the +250 odds at FanDuel seem like a steal in comparison.
Lucas Giolito has pitched for three MLB teams this season and faces one of those former squads in this start.
Did Los Angeles know something when it put Giolito on waivers after just six outings with the team? It's quite possible, as Giolito was lit up in his first appearance with the Cleveland Guardians, allowing nine earned runs on seven hits across three innings. While Giolito struggled to induce ground balls during his last start (11 fly ball outs versus two ground ball outs), no Angels regular in their top 60 at-bats since Aug 1 has posted a fly-ball rate higher than 48%. The Angels have also hit just four home runs since Shohei Ohtani last played on Sunday, and they rank 20th or worse in slugging, ISO, and wRC+.
bet365 is the only other shop offering plus-money odds to back the Under. But it's at +100, making DraftKings our go-to shop.
Saturday's MLB game picks
Chicago Cubs lefty Justin Steele ranks second at most of our best sportsbooks on the respective National League Cy Young Award odds leaderboards. He's created a compelling case to earn the har dware, starting with his MLB-best 16 wins and 178 ERA+. However, for us to confidently back Steele to lead the Cubs to a victory while laying relatively steep moneyline odds amid his stellar year, we look no further than Chicago's 14-1 record in his previous 15 starts.
Steele hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts (spanning 14 innings) and has produced a 20:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And he's induced an equal or greater amount of ground ball outs than fly ball outs in five of his previous nine starts.
This would be our most confident five-star play if the Cubs were not opposing Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly, who hasn't allowed a home run in 23 2/3 innings or an extra-base hit in 9 1/3 innings, according to Inside Edge. However, we give the Cubs the edge even if Kelly matches zeros with Steele, as Chicago's bullpen entered Friday with a 3.99 ERA and 3.82 FIP over the last 3 0 days, compared to Arizona's 4.53 ERA and 4.16 FIP.
Caesars (-141) and DraftKings (-142) offer a similar price to BetMGM, but the -140 odds found there are still the cheapest for Cubs backers.
MLB best bets made 9/9/2023 at 6:56 a.m. ET.
MLB betting odds pages
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| MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds |
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