Four new series begin Tuesday, rounding out a full 15-game slate around Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
Of the four series openers played Tuesday, three are interleague matchups. Two are between teams with winning records, as the Atlanta Braves host the Boston Red Sox, and the San Diego Padres visit the Minnesota Twins.
Elsewhere, the Philadelphia Phillies look to get hot in defense of their National League pennant as they host the Toronto Blue Jays, who have won four of their last five series.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Detroit Tigers (+165) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-195)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-125) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+105)
- Colorado Rockies (+140) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-165)
- New York Mets (-195) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+165)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+115) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
- Oakland Athletics (+195) vs. New York Yankees (-230)
- Boston Red Sox (+150) vs. Atlanta Braves (-175)
- Chicago White Sox (-145) vs. Kansas City Royals (+125)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-115) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-105)
- San Diego Padres (+100) vs. Minnesota Twins (-120)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+105) vs. Chicago Cubs (-125)
- Houston Astros (+120) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-140)
- Miami Marlins (-105) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
- Texas Rangers (+140) vs. Seattle Marin ers (-165)
- Washington Nationals (+195) vs. San Francisco Giants (-230)
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Nick Pivetta Under 3.5 earned runs (-155 via DraftKings) vs. Braves ???
- Player prop: Shane Bieber Under 6.5 strikeouts (-104 via FanDuel) vs. Tigers ????
- Player prop: Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 total bases (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Angels ???
- Total: White Sox-Royals Over 9 (-113 via BetRivers) ????
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Tuesday's MLB prop picks
Optimists would say Boston Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta is coming off his first quality start of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays after allowing three earned runs over six innings. Pessimists will say that was the only time in six starts that he completed six innings, and he has allowed at least three runs in five of them. We prefer the optimistic approach with Pivetta in this matchup, especially since his two road starts against the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers have been two of his best (three earned runs, 13 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings).
The Atlanta Braves have scored five-plus runs in 20 of 35 games and are 20-0 when doing so. However, in home games against right-handed pitching, Atlanta ranks 19th or worse in ISO, wRC+, and BABIP. That should help offset the fact that Pivetta ranks in the ninth percentile or worse in xSLG, hard-hit percentage, and barrels.
DraftKings saves bettors some money on this prop compared to Caesars' -164 odds.
Since a seven-strikeout performance in his second start of the year against the Oakland Athletics, Shane Bieber has struck out four batters in five consecutive starts. Bieber's K/9 rate has declined each year since his Cy Young campaign in 2020 (14.2 K/9 that year) and is down to a 5.9 K/9 rate this year.
Though Bieber's ERA is a respectable 2.96, his xERA of 4.86 is more in line with the analytics that have him in the bottom-fifth of the league in xBA, whiff percentage, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity.
This is a four-star play, as Detroit entered Monday with the eighth-lowest strikeout rate over the last seven days. We are getting an inflated number at FanDuel based on Bieber's 11.4 career K/9 rate against the Tigers, his highest against any AL Central opponent.
FanDuel charges much less in juice compared to some of our other best sportsbooks, including DraftKings (-115) and Caesars (-137).
One day after backing Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker to hit a home run, we are taking the opposite approach and expecting a quiet day at the plate against Cy Young hopeful Shohei Ohtani. Tucker has homered in his career off Ohtani but has just one other hit in 15 at-bats and has struck out six times. And we should not expect Tucker to succeed much against the Los Angeles Angels relievers either. Per Inside Edge, the Angels bullpen entered Monday allowing the seventh-best hard-hit rate (36%) over the last week and the third-best OPS (.605) over the previous two weeks.
We would much prefer getting this number at 1.5 total bases but will not scoff at the +130 odds at DraftKings, which is more tempting than the +115 found at Caesars and other similar numbers at our best MLB betting sites.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
This is a matchup of two starting pitchers who have struggled against their opponents. Lucas Giolito has allowed a .276/.304/.674 slash line in 98 combined at-bats to current Kansas City Royals hitters. However, most concerning is that 17 of the 27 hits against him have gone for extra bases.
Meanwhile, Jordan Lyles has been tagged for a .314/.362/.518 slash line in 118 combined at-bats against current Chicago White Sox hitters. Lyles will have his hands full with Luis Robert in particular, as he has at least one extra-base hit in five of six games and a seven-game hitting streak in total. In addition, no starting pitcher has completed six innings in four straight games against Chicago, which suggests Lyles should be in for a rough outing.
BetRivers charges the least juice to back the Over, but I would not put anyone off erring for the +110 odds at WynnBet at a slightly higher total of 9.5.
MLB best bets made 5/9/2023 at 6:25 a.m. ET.
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