A whopping 13 Major League Baseball teams aim for series sweeps to end the week, and you can check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds.
Another division has been clinched, as the Los Angeles Dodgers became the second team to win 90 games and secured their 10th NL West title in 11 years.
The next-closest team to clinch their division is the Minnesota Twins, whose magic number is eight entering Sunday.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Sunday's MLB schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+102) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-122)
- New York Yankees (-120) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+100)
- Boston Red Sox (+120) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-142)
- Cincinnati Reds (+114) vs. New York Mets (-135)
- Texas Rangers (OFF) vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Atlanta Braves (-148) vs. Miami Marlins (+124)
- Houston Astros (-245) vs. Kansas City Royals (+200)
- Minnesota Twins (-155) vs. Chicago White Sox (+130)
- Washington Nationals (+220) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-270)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-130) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+110)
- San Francisco Giants (-170) vs. Colorado Rockies (+142)
- Detroit Tigers (-142) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+120)
- San Diego Padres (-155) vs. Oakland Athletics (+130)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (OFF) vs. Seattle Mariners
- Chicago Cubs (-118) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-102)
Sunday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Braves (+235 via bet365) ????
- Player prop: Framber Valdez to record a win vs. Royals (+115 via DraftKings) ???
- Player prop: Vladimir Guerrero to hit a home run vs. Red Sox (+475 via bet365) ???
- Total: Giants-Rockies Under 12 (-115 via BetMGM) ????
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Sunday's MLB prop picks
Miami Marlins slugger Jaz z Chisholm made history Saturday, becoming the second player since 1900 to hit a grand slam and steal three bases in a game, per ESPN Stats & Info. His grand slam was Miami's first of the season, and Chisholm broke an eight-game RBI-less streak with the blast. We expect him to ride the momentum of that big hit, given the magnitude of what it meant for the team's NL wild-card chances.
Chisholm has had success against Braves righty Charlie Morton, as he has eight hits in 23 at-bats while posting a 1.027 OPS.
This is a four-star play, as Morton has allowed 11 earned runs in his previous 14 1/3 innings (spanning three starts) against teams that currently occupy a playoff spot.
The +235 odds found at DraftKings and bet365 are a steal compared to Caesars' offer of +197 for this wager.
Houston Astros southpaw Framber Valdez has been the epitome of an innings eater this year, with the most seven-plus innings starts (14) of all American League starters. While Valdez was a hard-luck loser in his last start against the Oakland Athletics after allowing three earned runs over seven innings, he recorded double-digit strikeouts for the first time since July 15 and had a 35% CSW% with 34 called strikes and whiffs.
Houston has feasted on teams under .500 this season, going 48-25 (.658), and it should have a clear advantage over the Kansas City Royals and Jordan Lyles, especially since his strikeout rate has dropped 17% since 2021.
Lyles has thrown three complete games this season, more than he totaled from 2011 to 2022. However, he still ranks in the 18th percentile or worse in xBA and barrels, and his ground-ball percentage that ranks in the 12 percentile could get him into trouble against an Astros lineup that ranks ninth in HR/FB% (15.1%) since Aug. 1.
Once again, DraftKings and bet365 offer the best odds for this wager, as Caesars is slight lower at +108.
Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero has slashed .214/.353/.571 in 28 career at-bats against Boston Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta. He has struck out just four times in that span, and four of his six hits have gone for extra bases, including three home runs.
Guerrero has homered in three consecutive games after hitting just one home run in his previous 15, while Pivetta has induced a 0.61 GO/AO ratio against right-handed batters, compared to a 0.84 ratio against lefties.
The Blue Jays slugger is tied for the sixth-most home runs before age 25, per StatsCentre, and we would not be shocked if he hits a home run in his fourth consecutive game at the Rogers Centre for the first time in his career.
With Caesars as low as +370 for this wager, bet365 becomes our no-brainer go-to shop.
Sunday's MLB game picks
San Francisco Giants southpaw Sean Manaea has done everything manager Gabe Kapler has asked of him, including making spot starts and being used as a bulk reliever. He has clearly earned the trust of his manager as he has been pegged for his second start since May, as he allowed two hits in 5 2/3 innings in his last outing. He faces a Colorado Rockies lineup that ranks last in wRC+ in home games, while the Giants rank 25th or worse in wOBA and OPS since Aug. 1. Thus, we trust Rockies righty Chris Flexen, whose home ERA is 3.64 runs better than his road ERA, and he has allowed more than four runs once in his previous five starts.
The Under is 7-5 in the 12 meetings between these NL West rivals this season and has cashed in just 39.7% of the games San Francisco has been favored (31-47-2).
We do not mind paying the slight extra -115 juice at BetMGM to back the Under of 12 runs, as we are getting an extra half-run of value compared to FanDuel and BetRivers, which offer a total of 11.5.
MLB best bets made 9/17/2023 at 7:31 a.m. ET.
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