This past week produced solid results for my overall MLB Bullpen System and most of the other drill-down angles I’ve been tracking for savvy baseball bettors. Last Monday, I cautioned readers on overpricing of teams. Those heavy favorites struggled again with an ROI of -41% for the last seven days. Underdog teams with better bullpens netted profits as did those on various streaks. We also saw several teams make quantum leaps with great performances from their bullpens since last Monday, including the Cubs, who jumped up 10 points on my power rating scale, as their relief staff proved to be a big factor in winning five of six games. Let’s review the various results in another MLB Bullpen System Update.
Before getting into all of this week’s key numbers, a reminder that these numbers can of course be found on the Makinen Daily Power Ratings page on VSiN.com for easy usage. Keep this article handy when analyzing each of the daily matchups.
Better bullpen but overpriced angle
Highly-priced better bullpen teams were 12-9 this past seven days and lost -8.6 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday 6/18 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or more, that team is 126-64, but for –20.04 units. In my opinion, bullpens prove to be the difference in games that are priced more competitively. I don’t like backing heavy favorites with this high of prices on any single regular season baseball game. I prefer the other side.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at these games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an even better opportunity to avoid games. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 23-35 for -55.42 units! This angle was 4-3 last week for -2.22 units, another promising set of results. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this has been -95.6%! I challenge readers to find an angle this simple that produces such definitive results.