MLB season has arrived! Let’s dive into a few notes, stats and trends, but more importantly, some betting systems we can follow along with through the regular season.
From moneylines to run lines to over/unders, let’s dive into it all right now.
MLB Regular Season'
ML Bets
Run Line
O/U Bets
Teams
Futures
Moneylines'
- This system looks at betting contrarian in MLB against the best teams in the league. The focus is a team under .500 on the moneyline on a losing streak, facing an above-average team.
- In interleague play, road underdogs have shown themselves to be profitable on the moneyline recently. They have only a 43.3% win percentage, but those teams have turned a 4.6% ROI for bettors since 2016 and have been profitable in five consecutive seasons.
- We’ve heard the mantra, and it tends to work across sports, but for MLB, here is a version for highly bet games early in the season. This system shows underdogs in June or earlier who get a low bet percentage and also see their line get smaller.
- Using one of our new PRO Systems, here is an additional angle/edge to betting underdogs early in the season. The focus is within the first 10 games of the season while the market still has some major volatility.
- This is an interesting one. Between 2005 and 2019, road underdogs on a two-game losing streak heading into the third or fourth game of a series with a single opponent cashed at a 39.8% rate, a -5.6% ROI, losing a $100 bettor $7,633. But, since 2020, the script has flipped. These teams are cashing at a 46.3% rate, for a 16.2% ROI.
Run Lines'
- Here is some wide scope run line data over the last few seasons before we dive in. Favorites on the run line were about 200 games under .500 last season (1,130-1,333-5; 45.9%) and in the last five years it’s about 45% flat.
- Only three teams in baseball made $1,000+ on a $100 run line bet as a favorite last season: the Dodgers, Mets and Cardinals. The rest of baseball lost almost $15,000 combined in that spot.
- From last season, here is a list of the best and worst pitchers on the run line as underdogs — the pitchers who got blown out and the pitchers who kept it close.
- Betting on run lines for underdogs can be tricky depending on the juice. Here is a system that focuses on small dogs off short losing streaks facing good opponents.
The biggest issue with many run line systems is recently the low-bet underdogs off losing streaks are about even over the last few years, but this one incorporates non-divisional games which helps weed out the unfamiliar matchups. Divisional games have just a +0.8% ROI, while non-divisional profits bettors are at almost +12% ROI.
- Never assume teams bounce back after a loss, especially favorites. High win percentage favorites in the second game of a series or later, coming off a loss, are just 484-616 (44.3%) on the run line over the last decade, for a -6% ROI.
- A simple question: How do big favorites perform on the run line? We started seeing big favorites really in 2017 — since that year, we’ve seen 286 teams close as a -300 favorite or higher. Those teams are 167-119 (58.4%) on the run line, losing a $100 bettor $1,575, for a -5.5% ROI.
Of those six seasons since 2017, only one produced a profitable season for big favorites on the run line.
Over/Unders'
- Unders have been the rage in MLB for some time now. Even though its been a small margin, unders have been above .500 for six consecutive seasons dating back to 2017 (basically a 51% unders, 49% overs situation). In that almost 13,000 game sample size since 2017, here are a few notes on unders:
- Unders on higher totals (10 or more; 50.8%) have performed slightly better than unders with lower totals (below 8; 48.7%) in that span, while the sweet spot of totals in the 8 to 9.5 range have actually turned a profit at 51.7%, with a $100 bettor up $2,822.
- Beware of trendy unders, though. When the betting public loves an under — basically in the 66%+ to 70%+ range — both sample sizes are about 15-20 games under .500 and tend to go over the total vs. under.
- A recent trend to watch for is large home favorites and unders. Last year, when home teams were listed at -250 or higher — especially the -300 or higher range — the under cashed at basically a +10% ROI. Between 2017 and 2021, the under was 24 games under .500 in this spot.
- When the wind is blowing in, bet the under. Truthfully, it’s been that simple sometimes. Since 2005, the under is 230 games above .500 with this filter, for a +4.8% ROI — only two seasons have ended with a net negative profitability in that span. When the wind is 5+ MPH, the ROI raises to 6.1%
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Here is our “Weather: Wind Blowing In” PRO System which pinpoints high wind games with a normalized total range.