MLB schedule today has 15 games
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Now, let’s get to the baseball.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 28 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Diego Padres (-155, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Yu Darvish was pushed back due to an illness yesterday and the Pirates took advantage of Reiss Knehr and the Padres bullpen in a big 9-4 win. The Pirates will hope for another underdog victory today behind ace Mitch Keller, but they’ll have to contend with a surging Blake Snell to get it.
Snell comes into this start with a 3.22 ERA, 4.15 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP in his 81 innings of work. Over his last six starts, he has allowed all of two earned runs and hasn’t allowed more than four hits in any of those outings. Recently, he’s gone on a strikeout binge with 35 strikeouts against just three walks in his last three starts against the Rockies (at Coors), Rays, and Giants. He also fired six shutout innings against the Cubs and Marlins prior to that, a couple of top-five caliber offenses against lefties. He’s on quite a roll and he’s actually got at least six innings in each of his last five starts and eight of his last 10 overall, which is something we haven’t really seen from him in recent seasons.
It’s the opposite for Keller, who has a 3.45 ERA, 3.26 xERA, and the same FIP on the season, but the Pirates ace actually has a 5.20 ERA in his last six starts. He’s been a bit better in his last three, holding the Mets and Marlins to one run over seven innings with a subpar start in between against the Brewers. Recently, Keller has lost his ability to generate swings and misses with a single-digit SwStr% in each of his last four starts and just a 6.3% SwStr% in that span.
We’ll see what happens here, as the Padres continue to struggle and fall well short of expectations.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-145, 8.5)
The Mets looked like a bit of an optimistic favorite yesterday, but took care of their affairs in a 7-2 thrashing of the Brewers. Julio Teheran gave up four home runs, as his regression finally came to the forefront and the Brewers were stymied by lefty David Peterson for six shutout innings. Fortunately for Milwaukee, they get back to facing a righty today in the person of Kodai Senga.
In my mind, and based on the numbers, Milwaukee’s offense is pretty bad all the way around, but the Brew Crew has been better against righties compared to lefties. Senga has a 3.52 ERA with a 3.90 xERA and a 4.12 FIP in his 76.2 innings of work. The Japanese import has a 28% K% in his first season, but also a 13.3% BB%, so he’s had some trouble finding the plate at times. He’s allowed a 41.8% Hard Hit%, but only nine homers and only four over his last 10 starts.
Senga’s walk rate issues have been tempered a bit at times, as he walked 22 batters over his first six starts and has walked 22 in eight starts since. Nevertheless, he’s a tough guy to handicap between the walks and other things. He’s allowed at least four runs in six of his 14 starts, but also allowed one or fewer runs in six starts. So, you take the good with the bad with him and there’s been a little more good than bad based on that 3.52 ERA.
The Brewers are just 25th in wOBA against righties and have the third-highest K% at 25%. They also have a 9.2% BB%, so this looks like it will be a usual start for Senga with some punchouts and free passes.
Wade Miley goes for Milwaukee today with a 2.91 ERA, 4.48 xERA, and a 4.30 FIP in his 52.2 innings of work. The left-hander has a low 14.8% K% with a strong 5.3% BB%, but his .233 BABIP and 81.9% LOB% look like prime areas to expect regression. Since returning from the IL on June 17, Miley has started against the Pirates and Guardians and allowed five hits over 11 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against two walks.
I have no idea what Mets owner Steven Cohen will say this afternoon prior to the game or how it might impact the ballclub. I’m also not sure I can confidently lay this price, even though I do think Senga matches up pretty well with Milwaukee and Miley is a walking regression bomb. Teheran’s regression hit. Let’s see if Miley’s does the same.
Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 8.5) at Chicago Cubs
Aaron Nola and Drew Smyly will get it going in Chicago, where the air quality is still a bit of a concern in the Windy City. Yesterday’s game was played and Ranger Suarez stayed on his heater with 7.1 outstanding innings and Jameson Taillon continued to struggle against a surging Phillies bunch that sits just three games out of the Wild Card chase.
Nola has a 4.38 ERA, but a 3.51 xERA and a 4.05 FIP, heading into this outing. His K% is way down from past seasons and his HR/FB% is back near his 2021 levels after taking a nice dip last season. His 13% HR/FB% is right in line with his career average, but his K% is about 3% lower and it is nearly 5% lower compared to last season. It hasn’t really hurt him that much, as he has allowed the same .218 BA that he allowed last season thanks to a .255 BABIP.
The biggest thing for Nola has simply been sequencing, as he has a 63.6% LOB% this season. He’s allowed just a .250 wOBA with the bases empty, but has a .365 wOBA with men on base and a .396 wOBA with RISP. Nola has actually allowed more homers with men on base (8) than he has solo homers (7), so that doesn’t help. His K% also drops from 27.5% with the bases empty to 18.1% with men on base. He’s given up at least four runs in four of his last six starts, but did just fire six shutout against the Braves.
Regression found Smyly, as he comes in with a 3.38 ERA, 3.61 xERA, and a 4.33 FIP over his 82.2 innings of work. Over his last five starts, he has a 4.94 ERA with a 5.85 FIP, as he’s allowed 16 runs (15 earned) on 33 hits in 27.1 innings. The biggest thing is that his K/BB ratio in that span is just 18/14, so he’s had problems with the walk and hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts. Even in his last start with five shutout innings against Pittsburgh, he walked five and only struck out four. Given that he’s faced the Pirates twice, Angels, Padres, and Reds (pre-Elly De La Cruz), his recent numbers are a big concern.
I thought a lot about the Phillies today, but Nola has allowed eight homers in his last seven starts and, despite a 30.7% K% and a 14.2% SwStr%, he still has a 4.20 ERA and a 4.06 FIP in his last 45 innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-210, 12) at Colorado Rockies
Kyle Freeland gets the start for the Rockies, but the starter for the Dodgers remained a question mark late into the morning. Michael Grove seemed like the easiest choice as the closest guy to stretched out in the LA bullpen, even though his most recent appearance came in high leverage. Victor Gonzalez, who has opened once this season, could be the “starter”, but that would leave Grove as the bulk guy.
Gonzalez has a 3.43 ERA with a 3.74 xERA and a 3.78 FIP in his 21 innings pitched. Grove has a 7.59 ERA with a 5.12 xERA and a 5.60 FIP in 32 innings of work. He’s given up eight homers in those 32 innings, so that’s a lot and may be a factor here at Coors Field today.
Freeland has a 4.54 ERA with a 5.12 xERA and a 4.99 FIP in his 85.1 innings pitched this season. He’s got a really low K% at 14.6% and has allowed 14 homers in 16 homers, but he’s actually pitched well at home, at least according to ERA. At Coors Field, Freeland has a 3.42 ERA with a .330 wOBA against compared to a 5.92 ERA and a .363 wOBA against on the road.
I’ve heard some people use Freeland’s home numbers as justification for a bet, but he had a 6.00 ERA with a .375 wOBA against last season in 87 innings and has a 4.63 ERA for his career, so I’m not sure this sample size from 2023 says anything other than he’s run good in situations with men on base at home.
Can’t say there’s anything I like in this one.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-215, 9.5)
Not surprisingly, the Tigers had bullpen issues yesterday, as a tie game turned into a blowout win for the Rangers with a five-run eighth inning. Matt Manning was solid in his return with 5.2 decent innings against a great Rangers lineup, but the offense didn’t provide a whole lot of run support. We’ll see if it’s the same story today for the Tigers as they draw Dane Dunning.
Dunning is a huge regression candidate, as he comes in with a 2.76 ERA, 5.09 xERA, and a 3.93 FIP in his 71.2 innings of work. We’ve seen little hits of it here and there, including the three runs he allowed on seven hits over five innings against the Tigers on May 31, but his last two starts have been solid against the Blue Jays and Yankees. Dunning has a 3.16 ERA with a 4.21 FIP as a starter in 51.1 innings pitched.
But, Dunning only has 30 strikeouts against 16 walks in his nine starts. He’s got a 79.2% LOB% and that has done a lot of heavy lifting for him. Dunning allowed a 25% Hard Hit% in his last start, but he had a 45.4% HH% over his last seven starts heading into that outing. It’s just tough to trust the Tigers, who are among the worst offenses in baseball against righties.
It’s also hard because Joey Wentz is on the bump today and he has a 6.72 ERA with a 5.47 xERA and a 5.45 FIP in 67 innings pitched. Wentz has a .317 BABIP against and a 63.7% LOB%, so there are some positive regression signs in the profile. He’s also allowed 14 homers, so that is a glaring weakness in his game. He’s also allowed a lot of hard contact with a 44.6% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel%.
It was especially concerning to see him have a great start against the Twins on June 17 and then face them again on June 23 with a lower-quality outing. He didn’t make good adjustments and saw his SwStr% nearly cut in half with a Twins team that is quite bad at making contact.
The Rangers have continued to hit lefties throughout the season, as they are second with a .363 wOBA and a 134 wRC+. In June, they have a .370 wOBA and a 139 wRC+ against lefties, so they’ve kept it going this month in 231 PA. With Dunning’s regression signs, a good matchup for the Rangers against Wentz, and two bullpens I consider to be pretty shaky, especially of late, I think this is a high-scoring affair in Arlington.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110)
Cleveland Guardians (-135, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals
It will be left-hander Logan Allen and left-hander Austin Cox as the Guardians and Royals play Game 2 of their weekday set. Cox will be making his first MLB start after six relief appearances without allowing a run. He has allowed just two hits in his 12.1 innings and four walks to go with 13 strikeouts. Given that he has allowed a 44% Hard Hit% on 25 balls in play, I feel like more hits are coming soon. It seems unlikely that he’ll carry a .053 BA or a .080 BABIP the rest of the way.
He’s also got a 31% K% with a 9.5% BB% after posting just a 20.6% K% and an 11.4% BB% in the minor leagues. I did read about how the automatic strike zone has raised walk rates across Triple-A this season, so that’s something I need to start considering and factoring into my handicaps.
Allen has a 3.68 ERA with a 4.42 xERA and a 3.73 FIP in his 58.2 innings of work. He only went four innings last time out because it took him 89 pitches to get 12 outs, even though he only allowed two hits against the A’s. He struck out five and walked three, as he had his first double-digit SwStr% in four starts.
These are two bad offenses against lefties, as the Royals are 25th in wOBA at .303 and Cleveland is 27th at .295, though the Guardians strike out a lot less than the Royals in this split. I gave some thought to the 1st 5 Under, but it will be oppressively hot in KC today with temps in the upper 90s and humidity in the 40-50% range throughout the game. Those are some excellent hitting conditions, even for two bad offenses.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-130, 9)
The first two games of this series have been very low-scoring, as the 1st 5 Under has cashed in back-to-back contests, along with largely sweat-free full-game Unders. We’ll see if that changes tonight with Lucas Giolito for the White Sox and Jaime Barria for the Angels.
I’m still scarred by the start on May 25 when Giolito walked seven Tigers in 3.2 innings, especially because it was just such an outlier. In five starts since, Giolito has only walked 10 guys with 35 strikeouts over 29 innings of work. He has a 2.17 ERA, but a 4.22 FIP, as he’s allowed five homers in that span, yet has an 88% LOB%. He’s also surrendered a ton of hard contact with a 50.7% Hard Hit% and an 11% Barrel%.
As a side note, Michael Kopech walked seven yesterday, but managed to limit the damage to two runs. I don’t know what it is about catching these White Sox pitchers on days when they can’t throw strikes.
Barria is having a really nice year for the Angels, as he owns a 2.14 ERA with a 3.69 xERA and a 3.69 FIP in 46.1 innings of work. After making three straight starts, his last appearance came in relief with three scoreless innings against the Royals. Barria got roughed up a bit by the Rangers in his last start, but that’s a way better offense than this one he’ll face tonight.
Barria has held the opposition to a 28.5% Hard Hit% on the season and has an 11.1% SwStr%, though a lot of that came in relief. Nevertheless, he’s held righties to a .138/.206/.234 slash and a .186 wOBA in 103 PA on the season. That follows a similar path to last season when he held righties to a .212/.256/.329 slash with a .258 wOBA.
Giolito has allowed a good number of rockets lately, including a 71.4% Hard Hit% against the Angels when he faced them five starts ago. I like the Angels tonight to make harder contact and deal some of the regression that Giolito has coming with his 79.9% LOB% for the season and his much higher mark in recent starts.
Pick: Angels -130
New York Yankees (-150, 7.5) at Oakland Athletics
A fascinating one here as former Yankees farmhand JP Sears gets the start for Oakland against Domingo German. Sears was part of the ill-fated Frankie Montas trade and faces the team he was drafted by in this one, as German looks to get back on track from a really rough stretch of games.