MLB schedule today has 15 games
The Wednesday slate brings us four very early starts, as we’ve got two NL, one AL, and one interleague game with start times in the Noon ET hour and then another AL game going off at 1:10. Take a business lunch and head down to the ballpark to catch a few innings or something if you are lucky enough to live in one of those places.
I tried to get through today’s article as quickly as possibly to capture those games, but early starts on the West Coast aren’t fun, even when you wake up a couple hours earlier to try and get your work done.
Here’s a look at the card for today.
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the June 21 card (odds from DraftKings):
Chicago Cubs (-115, 8.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
I was surprised to see this line as low as it is on the Chicago side, as Kyle Hendricks seems to be back in his usual form and the Cubbies draw a southpaw in Rich Hill. I guess the argument can be made for some Hendricks regression, given his 2.86 ERA with a 4.53 xERA and a 3.35 FIP, but the guy has made a career out of outperforming relative to his advanced metrics. In 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, his FIP and xERA were all higher than his regular ERA. That’s just what he’s always been and it isn’t some kind of outlier.
Hendricks even has a 62.9% LOB% this season with his 2.86 ERA, so a case could be made that he could be even better, though his .244 BABIP will rise and so will his 2.7% HR/FB%. After a rocky first outing, Hendricks has allowed six earned runs in his last four starts and even flirted with a no-hitter against the Giants two starts ago. He draws a slumping Pirates offense in this one in hopes of keeping it going.
Hill struggled last time out against the Brewers, as he walked six and gave up three first-inning runs to dig a deep hole for his team. He has a 4.31 ERA with a 4.43 FIP on the season and has had a few tough outings recently. The Brewers outing wasn’t that bad compared to when he gave up six runs to the Giants on May 29 or five to the Rangers on May 23. It is super weird and frustrating that I’ve had both the Hill and Lucas Giolito starts where guys who usually had decent walk rates had control blow-ups.
Anyway, it’s an early start with next to no lead time, so it’s a pass, but I’m curious to see if the oddsmakers are justified in having Pittsburgh such a short dog here.
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (-220, 9.5)
It definitely appears as though we reached the point where the Reds were simply priced too high, as we’ve seen a bit of Rockies investment from the modeling crowd overnight and early this morning. This is a direct fade of Andrew Abbott, who has not allowed a run over his first 17.2 innings pitched, but has a 4.20 xERA, a 3.45 FIP, and a 5.60 xFIP. Abbott has been a fly ball pitcher to this point without a home run allowed (xFIP). He has a 16.9% K% and a 12.7% BB% and allowed a 46% Hard Hit%. (xERA).
The expectation for Abbott to continue this sort of performance is very, very, very low and I agree with it. A LOB% of 100% over 19 baserunners is rather remarkable. And remarkably unsustainable. He does draw the league’s worst offense against lefties today.
Connor Seabold has been scratched and replacement starter Karl Kauffmann couldn’t get to Cincinnati in time, so reliever Jake Bird will start a Johnny Wholestaff day for the Rockies. That was announced around 11 a.m. ET, so I’m not going to dive deep into it since I’m trying to get through the rest of the card.
I had no play at all in this game anyway, but let’s see if the Andrew Abbott Regression Tour has its first stop or if that will come in his next start against Baltimore.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-145, 9) at Milwaukee Brewers
Zac Gallen and Julio Teheran wrap up this series at American Family Field with matinee action in Milwaukee. Admittedly, I cannot believe what Teheran is doing and also don’t see it lasting too much longer. He has a 1.78 ERA with a 3.13 xERA and a 3.74 FIP in his 30.1 innings pitched. He’s done a tremendous job of limiting walks, which he hasn’t done at the big league level since 2016. He has an 87.2% LOB% and a .220 BABIP against.
I will say that he has a 32.9% Hard Hit% against, so something is working for him and he only allowed two hard-hit balls against the Pirates last time out. However, I just don’t see how a guy with one start in the bigs since 2020 and some downright bad minor league numbers in San Diego’s system prior to this.
Gallen has been a really hard guy to handicap lately. He had a velocity decrease two starts ago and got tagged by the lowly Tigers, but his velo came back up in his last start and he shut down the lowly Guardians. But, Gallen has been all over the map and has actually allowed a lot of hits lately, as his hard contact rate, which has been a thing most of the season, has now resulted in more baserunners. For as great as the K and BB numbers are, Gallen has allowed a 45.2% Hard Hit% on the year. He’s actually fortunate to have only allowed five home runs.
I find him very hard to bet on, if we’re being honest. Also, since May 2, his K% is down to 21.4%, despite being 27% for the season as a whole. Even if this wasn’t an early game, it would be an easy pass.
St. Louis Cardinals (-155, 9) at Washington Nationals
Signs of life from the Cardinals? They’ve reeled off four in a row, taking the first two of this series from the Nationals, and now they’ll look for the sweep with Miles Mikolas on the bump against Trevor Williams. I mentioned yesterday how the Nationals offense has completely gone in the tank and that is true, as they are 27th in wOBA and only have a 4.0% BB% this month. They’re still not striking out and are running a .292 BABIP, but they aren’t really hitting for any power with just 10 homers and the lack of walks has led to a .285 OBP, despite a .252 BA.
Mikolas had setbacks in his two most recent starts and now has a 4.36 ERA with a 5.18 xERA and a 4.01 FIP over 86.2 innings pitched. He hadn’t allowed more than three runs in a start over 10 straight outings and had a 2.24 ERA with a 3.40 FIP in that span, but he’s given up 11 runs on 15 hits in his last 12 innings. He only has five strikeouts out of 80 batters faced in his last three starts.
Also Mikolas, who typically prides himself on limiting hard contact, has a 46.5% HH% over his last four starts. With a guy that allows a lot of balls in play, hard contact is even worse. The question is whether or not the Nats, who are a bottom-five offense against righties, can take advantage.
Washington’s starter also pitches to a lot of contact. Williams has a 4.50 ERA with a 5.42 xERA and a 5.45 FIP in his 70 innings of work. He, too, has ridden the struggle bus of late, allowing 17 runs over his last four starts. Six of the runs are unearned, all coming from his May 29 start against the Dodgers, but he’s a guy with thin margins for error because of all the balls in play. Recently, he’s allowed a lot of homers, as he’s given up eight HR in his last six starts.
I gave some thought to the over here, but the wind will be blowing in at close to 20 mph from RF. Also, rain is in the forecast all day long, so this game will probably get rained out. The Cardinals leave for London after the game to take on the Cubs on Saturday morning following two off days.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 8.5)
AJ Smith-Shawver and Aaron Nola are the listed starters in this one, as these division rivals play Game 2 of a three-game set. The Braves drew first blood yesterday behind Spencer Strider in a 4-2 win and will look to run their winning streak to eight after ending Philly’s six-game streak last night.
I’d really like to abbreviate AJ Smith-Shawver as, well, you get it, but I guess I need to use an alternative. Smith-Shawver has worked 13.2 innings and allowed five runs (three earned) on nine hits. He’s struck out 11 and walked four with a 2.03 ERA, 4.48 FIP, and a 2.65 xERA. He’s only allowed a 32.4% Hard Hit% and just two barrels in 37 batted ball events thus far over two starts and a relief effort. However, he’s also faced Colorado and Washington in those two starts, so this is a pretty big step up in class.
As I talked about prior to his first start, he’s a ridiculously rapid riser in the Braves system. He worked 8.1 innings at the Complex League in 2021, 68.2 innings in A-ball in 2022, and then made cameos at High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A before being promoted to the Majors at the age of 20. The Braves have done really well with pitcher development, but I think it’s a big ask for this kid to be MLB-ready this quickly.
He’s also a guy who throws over 50% fastballs at about 94 mph. It’s also a low spin rate fastball and I really don’t think he’s going to be able to sustain the results he’s gotten on it so far with a .179 BA and a .286 SLG. The pitch does not generate a lot of swings and misses
Nola has a 4.66 ERA with a 3.65 xERA and a 4.17 FIP in his 94.2 innings of work. His low 61.9% LOB% is what is hurting his ERA the most, as his K% is the lowest it has been since his rookie year in 2015. He’s also really struggling lately, as he has allowed 22 runs over his last five starts, including a rough outing against Atlanta. In that span, he has a 5.34 ERA with a 4.66 FIP and has given up seven homers. He does have 40 strikeouts, though, so maybe he’s coming around from a K% standpoint.
Sadly, this is another game where rain is in the forecast and could cause a postponement or some delays that wipe out the starters. The wind may knock down some fly balls to RF as well. I lean over here, but with the rain and the wind, it’s a no play. I will be keeping very close tabs on Smith-Shawver.
San Diego Padres (-120, 8) at San Francisco Giants
Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres here, as the Giants send out Ryan Walker and Sean Manaea at some point. San Francisco has walked off San Diego each of the last two nights and did so off of a bases loaded walk from Josh Hader yesterday. Joc Pederson drew the walk, had quality bat flip on it, and also hit the game-tying HR in the eighth. This is a team playing with a ton of swagger right now and it shows.
They draw a guy in Darvish who is struggling a bit. Dating back to May 17, Darvish has a 6.89 ERA with a 4.59 FIP. He’s allowed at least four runs in four of those six starts and has actually allowed 10 runs on 13 hits in his last 10.1 innings of work. He had a start in there with seven runs allowed against the Yankees, along with giving up four runs to the Royals. He has a 42.4% Hard Hit% in that span with a 9.8% Barrel%.
For the full season, Darvish has a 4.74 ERA with a 4.00 FIP. His 67.1% LOB% is a byproduct of his recent stretch in the sample size I just mentioned. Things mostly look fine in terms of velo and spin rates for Darvish, so I don’t think this is about an injury or anything of the sort. Just looks like some command issues. Although, I will note that he’s been throwing a lot of sinkers lately at the expense of his better pitches, specifically the sweeper.
Walker has a 1.65 ERA with a 2.51 xERA and a 2.97 FIP over his 16.1 innings pitched. His last appearance was his first as an opener and he allowed a solo homer over eight batters faced. He has five multi-inning appearances to his name and has maxed out at three innings and 13 batters, so I’d anticipate that he goes more than an inning today.
The Giants haven’t been doing the traditional thing and immediately following the opener with the bulk guy. Manaea appeared in the fifth inning against the Cubs when the team was already down 4-0 after Jakob Junis was used in support of John Brebbia, so it all depends on the matchup. The Cubs are a top-five offense against lefties, so Manaea was pushed back. The Padres, who are a top-10 offense in June by wOBA and wRC+, are ninth in wOBA against LHP, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see 6-foot-11 right-hander Sean Hjelle used here either. He was just recalled from Triple-A.
He doesn’t have great numbers in the bigs or the upper minors, but he provides a different look and a little bit of length, having made eight starts at Triple-A. This will be a patchwork type of day for the Giants, so it doesn’t make them all that projectable.
I feel like I lean Giants again today, but I don’t feel strong enough to take them.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 8)
I cannot express how excited I was to see the O’s jump out 4-0 on the Rays, only to really have to sweat yesterday’s game. They got there, but it sure as hell wasn’t easy. This is a very early start and I’m running out of time to get all the morning games out there, but it’s Tyler Wells and Taj Bradley to finish up this really quick two-game series.
Wells continues to be a tough guy for me to believe in, but he’s a huge developmental win for the Orioles. He’s got a 3.20 ERA with a 3.47 xERA and a 4.44 FIP. He’s given up a ton of home runs, has an 86.4% LOB%, and a .191 BABIP. There are a lot of things I don’t like in the profile, yet he has a spectacular K/BB ratio and has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 14 appearances.
He’s a fly ball guy and has an 11.2% Barrel% against, but the Orioles, who have had some defensive lapses in the outfield this season, have done really well to convert batted balls into outs behind him. He did just allow a season-high five barrels to the Blue Jays and a 56.3% Hard Hit%, so let’s see how he locates against the Rays today.
Bradley has a 4.19 ERA with a 3.35 xERA and a 2.68 FIP, so he has several positive regression signs in his profile. His LOB% is just 66.1% and he’s carrying around a .363 BABIP, which should come down as the season goes along, especially with his stuff. Bradley has struck out 34.1% of opposing batters and has a 12% SwStr%, so I do worry about the K% dropping a little bit. He’s got a 42.5% Hard Hit%, which partially explains the high BABIP, but it still shouldn’t be that high.
Wouldn’t have had a play even if this wasn’t an early game.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-140, 8.5)
How bad has Brady Singer been this season? Matthew Boyd and his 5.60 ERA with a 4.57 FIP is a noticeable favorite in this one. Boyd has allowed 15 runs over his last four starts covering 22 innings, so it’s not like he’s pitching well of late either, but Singer has been such a mess that the investment community is way out on him. He has a 6.33 ERA with a 5.94 xERA and a 4.47 FIP in 69.2 innings of work.
Singer has a .352 BABIP against and a 62.9% LOB%, so normally I’d expect some positive regression from those numbers, but it’s hard to expect anything when you’ve allowed a 55.4% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel%. Singer has allowed a HH% of at least 50% in 11 of his 14 starts.
I guess it is worth noting that he’s had a SwStr% of 10% or higher in three of his last four starts, so maybe he’s slowly coming around. He’s still allowed a lot of loud contact, but has only allowed eight runs on 23 hits in that span. Maybe he is showing some signs of life, which would be good for his mental health going forward this season on a team that is ticketed for well over 100 losses.
Boyd has actually only allowed a 33.9% Hard Hit% on the season, so he’s gotten rather unlucky at times. His K% is decent and his BB% isn’t all that bad, but he’s just been unable to get outs at the important times.
Messy game to say the least, but I’m keeping close tabs on Singer in case we can play on him soon. The only downside is that his name recognition on a bad team creates a little bit of bias in his prices at times.
Seattle Mariners (-155, 7.5) at New York Yankees
Finally a few night games to hit on. Luis Castillo gets the ball for the M’s here, hence the big road favorite role against Jhony Brito and the Yanks. Castillo has a 2.73 ERA with a 3.47 xERA and a 3.27 FIP in his 82.1 innings of work. As usual, the peripherals look quite good for Castillo, who has a 29.6% K% and a 6.9% BB%. He is running a .263 BABIP with a 45.9% Hard Hit%, though, and his GB% is actually the lowest of his career, so I’m a bit concerned about that.
I’m also concerned that Castillo has allowed 20 barrels already. He allowed 27 last season in 150.1 innings and he’s just over halfway to that inning total this season with a lot of barrels already. I’m also concerned that Castillo has pitched 53.1 innings at home and only 29 innings on the road. He has allowed just a .169/.238/.275 slash at home with a .232 wOBA and a 2.03 ERA in the friendly confines of T-Mobile Park.
On the road, Castillo has a 4.03 ERA with a .254/.306/.491 slash and a .339 wOBA with a 4.03 ERA. He’s allowed nine homers this season and six have been on the road over those 29 innings. After joining the Mariners last season, Castillo made six road starts and allowed 18 runs on 39 hits over 33.2 innings pitched for a 4.81 ERA.
Brito has a 5.58 ERA with a 5.82 xERA and a 5.54 FIP in his 40.1 innings of work. He only has a 16.9% K% and a 10.1% BB%, so this isn’t a great matchup for him against the Mariners. They do well to draw walks against right-handed pitching and their biggest issue is striking out. Brito, who hasn’t pitched at the MLB level in a month, hasn’t generated a lot of swings and misses.
He also went to the minors and allowed 17 runs on 27 hits in 20.1 innings of work with 17 strikeouts against 10 walks. He gave up six homers down there as well and the International League is nothing like the Pacific Coast League from a power standpoint, so that’s a bad number for the East Coast Triple-A league.
This total is down to 7 at most shops with winds blowing in from CF for this one. I actually like the over here. Unfortunately, it’s still 7.5 at DraftKings at reduced juice. Castillo just isn’t quite as sharp on the road and I’m concerned in this ballpark with the noticeable decrease in ground balls. I also think Seattle matches up pretty well with Brito here. Shop around for an Over 7 at -115 or -120 if you can find one. DK doesn’t have that and I use their odds for the article and tracking.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+105)
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians (-180, 8.5)
It is a big day for the Guardians. Gavin Williams will make his MLB debut with Triston McKenzie on the IL. Williams, who has been compared to Gerrit Cole because of his velocity and mechanics, had a 2.93 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in Triple-A Columbus. He had an 0.63 ERA with a 1.13 FIP in three starts at Double-A to begin the season and got bumped up a level.