MLB schedule today has 15 games
Every team in baseball will take the field on Tuesday night, as all 15 games are also night games around the big leagues. We also have a few more division series happening during this weekday run, as the new schedule chopped off 24 division games and it sure feels like we haven’t had many of them recently.
With six games in the NL, six in the AL, and three interleague matchups, we’ve got plenty to get to and plenty of action to discuss, so let’s dive right in for June 20.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 20 card (odds from DraftKings):
Atlanta Braves (-140, 8.5) at Philadelphia Phillies
Spencer Strider and Ranger Suarez get us started as the surging Phillies take on the NL East-leading Braves. Atlanta has ripped off six wins in a row themselves, sweeping a doubleheader from the Tigers and then sweeping the Rockies in a four-game set at Truist Park in which the combined score was 40-12. This is certainly a step up in class for the Braves given their recent schedule.
The Phillies have also won six in a row and are very much in the Wild Card hunt now after getting off to a slow start. While they’re not on Atlanta’s level offensively for the month of June, they’ve played a better schedule and are still a top-10 offensive team over the last 19 days.
Strider is having some issues lately. The right-hander has allowed 13 runs on 15 hits, including five home runs, in his last two starts. If we go back to May 17, he has a 6.47 ERA with a 5.84 FIP over his last 32 innings pitched. He still has 48 strikeouts in that span, but has also allowed 10 home runs and at least one in every start. He’s given up 11 barrels in that span as well.
The Braves get a lefty today in Suarez, who comes in with a 3.82 ERA, but a 3.07 FIP in his 37.2 innings pitched. He’s only allowed two home runs on the season and has only allowed two runs on 16 hits over his last 20 innings pitched. He’s allowed more hard contact than usual with a 39.3% Hard Hit%, but he also has a 53.2% GB%, so he’s kept the ball down effectively.
Tough one here, as the over crossed my mind with Strider’s recent results and Atlanta against a lefty, where they have a league-leading .301 average and .383 wOBA. I just didn’t feel enough conviction to play it.
Chicago Cubs (-130, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Marcus Stroman and Johan Oviedo are listed for this NL Central battle between the slumping Pirates and the charging Cubs. Chicago has won six of seven and eight of 10 to get back into the thick of things in the NLC. The Pirates, meanwhile, are honoring Tom Petty by freefallin’ with losses in seven straight, eight of nine, and 10 of 12.
Stroman is having a big year for the Cubs, but the regression signs are mounting. He’s got a 2.45 ERA with a 3.73 xERA and a 3.43 FIP in his 91.2 innings of work. Home run avoidance has been huge for him this season with only five long balls allowed, but a .235 BABIP with a 60.5% GB% has really never been done before. He has an average K% and an elevated walk rate, but because of the way that the defense has played behind him, he’s been able to limit baserunners, while also running the highest LOB% of his career at 78.9%.
He has now gone six straight starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed. Maybe he’s going to continue this outlier season, but I’ll be looking for spots to attempt to go against him. It just won’t be today with the Pirates in such a big funk.
Oviedo has a 4.40 ERA with a 4.06 xERA and a 3.81 FIP in his 75.2 innings of work. He, too, has avoided the long ball, but his walks and a .310 BABIP have been hurtful, as he has also posted a 68.5% LOB%. Oviedo struck out eight Cubs over 4.1 innings last time out, but allowed four runs on eight hits. A similar performance today may be curtains for his team, as Pittsburgh has gone back to not really hitting during this recent skid.
Still, with some of the signs in Stroman’s profile, I’d be worried about backing him today or really any day.
St. Louis Cardinals (-150, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
One of two games with two left-handed starters is this matchup in D.C. between the Cardinals and the Nationals. It will be Jordan Montgomery for the road favorites and MacKenzie Gore for the home dogs, as perception and reality may be different for these two offenses at present. We think of the Cardinals as crushing lefties, but they’re down to 19th in wOBA against LHP at .317 and have just a 101 wRC+.
The Nationals, meanwhile, who were a top-five team against southpaws not that long ago, have fallen to 12th, but still have a .331 wOBA with a 106 wRC+. Washington’s offense has actually been quite bad all month long regardless of handedness, so we’ll see if they can right the ship here against a tough customer in Montgomery. The 30-year-old southpaw has a 3.91 ERA with a 4.12 xERA and a 3.62 FIP in his 78.1 innings of work. All of his peripherals look fine and mostly in line with his career averages.
The lone hiccup that stands out is a .325 BABIP against, which is definitely on the high side with a 36.8% Hard Hit% on the season. He has allowed 23 barrels, which is a few too many, but he’s only given up eight homers. Even with their recent struggles, the Nationals are a bit of a step up in class, as Montgomery has faced the Giants, Reds, Pirates, Guardians, Reds, and Brewers in his last six starts. Cincinnati’s offense surely looks different, but that group features a few league average offenses against lefties and then two in Cleveland and Milwaukee that are awful in this split.
Gore has a 3.74 ERA with a 4.53 xERA and a 4.15 FIP over his 74.2 innings of work. His 82.2% LOB% is doing some hard work to keep that ERA down. His high K% is helping with the art of stranding runners, but Gore is not making life easy on himself with a 10.1% BB% in light of his .323 BABIP. That’s a lot of traffic on the bases and a 16.2% HR/FB% doesn’t help either.
Through it all, he’s been sort of Snellian, as he’s allowed more than four runs just once in a start and more than three runs just three times in 14 outings. He’s even worked around a 43.1% Hard Hit%. I thought I’d like the Nationals at a dog price against the Cardinals, who are just floating around, but Washington is playing quite bad right now.
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (-195, 10)
We’ve reached the point where we’re paying top of the market pricing on the Reds, who have reeled off nine wins in a row and just Joey Votto back in the lineup. Ben Lively is on the mound and this team is nearly a $2 favorite against Noah Davis and the Rockies. I fully realize the Rockies aren’t very good and neither is Davis, but this would have been a ludicrous price to think about up until this point.
Davis is back up from Triple-A Albuquerque to make his first MLB start since April 29. In his three April starts, he allowed nine runs on 16 hits, but seven of those runs came in one start. He has a 6.31 ERA over 25.2 innings at Triple-A, but pitching in the PCL and in a place like Albuquerque basically means making each start at Coors Field or worse. That said, the numbers are still not very impressive from a K/BB standpoint and the 26-year-old is a fringy big leaguer at best.
So is Lively, who has a 4.07 ERA with a 4.32 xERA and a 4.59 FIP in 42 innings pitched. He’s got an 81.3% LOB% doing some work and his last three starts have been quite bad. He’s allowed 14 runs on 26 hits in his last 19.1 innings pitched. He allowed 10 hits, but only gave up two runs last time out against the Royals. Maybe the Reds are working their magic on him, but the shine does seem to be coming off. Unfortunately, it’s hard to trust Colorado’s offense anywhere, especially away from home, so I don’t see a great reason to bet Over 10 and certainly don’t see a reason to fade the Reds against Davis.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 9.5)
The Diamondbacks rolled to an easy 9-1 win in the series opener yesterday by besting Corbin Burnes, as Merrill Kelly turned in another fine start. The Snakes can secure a series win here with a matchup between Ryne Nelson and Colin Rea. That task may be tricky because Nelson comes in with a 5.30 ERA, 5.35 xERA, and a 4.72 FIP over 71.1 innings of work. The pitch-to-contact righty has a low 14.7% K% and a .293 BA against, so a lot of those batted balls have found holes.
It doesn’t help to allow a 43.2% Hard Hit% or a 10.4% Barrel% when you can’t get strikeouts or swings and misses to increase your margin for error. Nelson has earned his .323 BABIP and disappointing peripherals. He’s hard to trust in any matchup, even one against a bad Brewers offense.
Rea has a 4.71 ERA with a 4.41 xERA and a 4.81 FIP in his 57.1 innings of work. He’s managed a few more strikeouts than Nelson, but has given up the same number of homers in 14 fewer innings. He’s allowed a 43.9% Hard Hit%, though his Barrel% is lower at 7.3%. Still, his barrels seem to have been more detrimental.
I’m not sure either starter is trustworthy here, but 10 is a big total, especially with Milwaukee expected to shoulder part of the burden. I think it’s an easy pass in this one.
San Diego Padres (-120, 8.5) at San Francisco Giants
It’s been a tough MLB season, but getting one back with the Giants in walk-off fashion last night felt pretty good. With Josh Hader unavailable because he worked back-to-back days (something I even neglected to mention), the Padres blew a two-run lead in the ninth and then got walked off in the 10th on a three-run bomb into the cove from Mike Yastrzemski.
It looks like Seth Lugo will be activated from the IL for this one, as he returns from a calf injury that cost him more than a month. Lugo had a 4.10 ERA with a 3.95 FIP when he went out, allowing five runs on four hits in two innings in his final start while trying to work through the issue. He did not make any rehab starts, so he’ll be limited today. He threw a couple sim games and a bullpen over the course of the last week and a half, but game conditions are certainly different.
Lugo only has a 7.1% SwStr% on the season and the Giants really do well, especially against righties, when they are making contact. They are sixth in wOBA against righties despite the fifth-highest K%. Lugo may not be terribly sharp here and doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses even if he is.
Anthony DeSclafani gets the call for the Giants with a 4.31 ERA, 4.56 xERA, and a 3.83 FIP in his 79.1 innings of work. His low K% at 18.2% is hurting his FIP and his LOB%, which sits at 62.9%. Otherwise, a lot of his peripherals seem okay. That said, his Hard Hit% over his last six starts is 48.9%, so he’s given up a ton of loud contact.
I’ve got a lean towards the Giants at a dog price with Lugo coming back a little rusty, but this one probably comes down to the bullpens and San Diego will be a lot closer to full strength tonight.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-175, 7.5)
The O’s are down in the Sunshine State for a very quick two-game stop against the Rays. They two teams have only played three times this season and Baltimore took two of three in a trio of low-scoring games at Oriole Park. In this one, they’ll send Kyle Bradish to the hill and the AL East-leading Rays will counter with Tyler Glasnow.
Bradish has a 3.90 ERA with a 4.50 xERA and a 3.80 FIP in his 60 innings of work. It was a weird start to the season for him, as he got hit by a comebacker and wound up missing 16 days. Then he struggled a bit through his next three starts, which makes sense since you get built up and ready to go for the season and then have a setback. Since getting settled in on May 12, Bradish has a 2.90 ERA with a 3.16 FIP in 40.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 34 and only walked seven, holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in six of those seven outings. He only struck out one Blue Jay in 24 batters faced last time out, but had 33 K in 33 innings prior to that.
Bradish has a high xERA because of some hard contact against from earlier in the season, but he has a 40.5% Hard Hit% in his last seven starts and his highest mark is 45.5% against the Brewers in a game where he had 10 strikeouts. I think he’s a little bit undervalued in the market right now and I was on him last time out against Toronto, but the offense didn’t help him at all.
Glasnow has a 3.43 ERA, but it comes with a 6.87 xERA and a 4.23 FIP in his four starts across 21 innings pitched. He has a 29.5% K% and a 12.5% BB%, so there haven’t been a ton of balls in play, but he has a 51% Hard Hit%, mostly due to his first start against the Dodgers with an 80% HH%. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his first four starts with 26 K against 11 BB.
I don’t think it’s a big ask to have Bradish cancel out Glasnow here, which would put a rested Baltimore bullpen up against a Tampa bullpen that has stabilized recently, but is the weaker of the two units. The Orioles are sixth in ERA (3.53), second in FIP (3.43), and third in K% (26.8%), while the Rays are 15th in ERA (3.94), 25th in FIP (4.54), and 28th in K% (20%).
Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano have worked twice in the last six days and everybody in the pen had Monday off. I like Bradish and think he could even be better than Glasnow here. If nothing else, this one may go to the pens and I’ll take Baltimore’s pen in the +150 range over anybody. Shop around, as you can find this one as much as 10 cents better at some shops.
Pick: Orioles +150
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-150, 8.5)
Daniel Lynch and Michael Lorenzen meet in Game 2 between the Royals and Tigers. This barnburner of a series is off to a 1-0 start for Detroit, as the Tigers came from behind to win 6-4. Kansas City has lost 12 of its last 13 and couldn’t even win one for Jordan Lyles, despite a decent start from him. It has to be hard to go to the ballpark every day if you’re the Royals.
Lynch has a 5.79 ERA with a 5.11 xERA and a 5.38 FIP in his 23.1 innings of work since an extended rehab stint. He just allowed seven runs on seven hits to the Reds and gave up four home runs in his most recent outing. To be honest, there are a few stats to like about Lynch. He has a 36% Hard Hit% and a 13.1% SwStr%. He’s getting a lot of swings and misses on pitches inside the zone and he’s done a pretty good job of working ahead in the count. The fact that it has only translated to 20 strikeouts in 103 batters is a little surprising in light of those numbers.
I’m not saying that I’ll be eager to back him or the Royals anytime soon, but I think there is a little bit of hidden value in his profile. He hasn’t pitched as bad as his numbers would indicate. This has been the better split for the Tigers, so the left-hander may not be in as advantageous of a spot, but I’ll be interested to see what his final line looks like.
Lorenzen owns a 4.23 ERA with a 4.44 xERA and a 4.55 FIP as he’s fallen on some tough times. His K% is down to 17.9% and his home run rate has jumped significantly. He’s allowed 12 runs on 16 hits in his last two starts and given up four home runs with only six strikeouts in 54 batters faced. Lorenzen faced the Braves and Diamondbacks, so two lineups way more impressive than Kansas City’s.
In 11 starts, though, Lorenzen has allowed at least five runs five times and one or no runs five times. He’s been a boom or bust guy to say the least, so let’s see if he booms or busts here on a perfect night for baseball in Detroit.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-115, 7)
A lot of respect here for George Kirby and the Mariners, as we’ve seen this line tick down as much as 20 cents for the lid lifter at Yankee Stadium between Seattle and New York. Gerrit Cole will go for New York, hence the low total of 7. It will be a little humid in the Bronx this evening, but an otherwise lovely night for baseball.
Kirby was dominant last time he faced the Yankees with eight shutout innings and just three hits allowed back on May 31. He went on extra rest on June 7 and looked uncomfortable in his start against the Padres with five runs allowed on 11 hits. Back on a mostly regular turn, he threw six innings with 10 strikeouts against the Marlins with an unearned run allowed. Kirby has a 3.24 ERA with a 3.11 FIP on the season and is pitching on a couple extra days of rest here.
Admittedly, while I like Kirby and the Mariners a lot, it always catches your attention when a guy like Cole is lined so low. He’s got a 2.75 ERA with a 4.03 xERA and a 3.50 FIP in his 91.2 innings of work. Cole’s K% isn’t where we’re used to seeing it, but neither is his HR/FB%, so that’s a really good thing.
After a couple of rocky outings against the Orioles and Padres, Cole has adjusted and allowed just four runs on 15 hits in his last 18 innings with 19 strikeouts against three walks in starts against the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Mets. Cole has allowed five earned runs three times and just 13 earned runs otherwise in his other 12 starts. He did not face Seattle during that series at T-Mobile Park.
I don’t really think Cole is a good matchup for the Mariners. They have a 25.6% K% against righties this season, which is third behind the Twins and A’s. Overall, they are 23rd in wOBA with a 98 wRC+ against righties. If we look just on the road, they are 17th at .304, which is actually lower than what they’ve done at home. Their 10% BB% on the road is doing a lot of heavy lifting, as they only have a .308 OBP and a .381 SLG. They have a 25.5% K% against righties on the road, so that hasn’t really changed based on the venue.