MLB schedule today has 12 games
It is a very busy Thursday around the big leagues, as 24 of the league’s 30 teams will be in action. After we only had six games on Monday, it is no surprise to see a jam -packed slate as we head towards the weekend.
Speaking of jam-packed, today is NFL Betting Guide day at VSiN. Subscribers woke up to a present in the form of this year’s preseason football publication and it is full of great betting advice and everything you need to know in order to get ready for the season. If you are not a subscriber, today’s the day to do that. The VSiN Summer Kickoff Special covers you for $175 through the Super Bowl on Feb. 11 and that will cover all remaining MLB content, plus our College Football Guide (Aug. 3), NBA, NHL, and College Basketball Betting Guides, our bowl season coverage, and everything you need to know for the NFL Playoffs right up through the Big Game.
It’s a lot of bang for your buck and you should seriously consider not only signing up for yourself, but also mentioning it to friends, family, and coworkers.
I’ll be on for the full hour of VSiN Best Bets with host Ben Wilson and some of our NFL Guide contributors, so check that out at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT.
Alright, now let’s get to the baseball.
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the June 29 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Diego Padres (-200, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates
What a weird night last night, as dormant offenses around the league had a field day. Cleveland scored 14 runs. The Yankees scored 11. The White Sox also scored 11. The Astros scored 10. And the Pirates, who dropped a nine-spot on the Padres on Tuesday, scored seven runs en route to another lopsided win and can sweep the series today.
Joe Musgrove draws his former team in some very early getaway day baseball at PNC Park. He’ll be opposed by rookie Luis Ortiz and heads into the game as a sizable favorite with some excellent recent returns. For the season, Musgrove has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.12 xERA and a 3.89 FIP in his 60.1 innings pitched. However, over his last six starts, he has only allowed eight earned runs in 36.1 innings of work with a 30/6 K/BB ratio. He has a 1.98 ERA with a 2.62 FIP in that span and a 21.5% Hard Hit% with a 1.9% Barrel%.
With Musgrove locked in, the Buccos will need a lot out of Ortiz, who makes his 13th career start. He made four last season, which wasn’t enough to lose his rookie eligibility, but he had a 4.50 ERA with a 2.96 xERA and a 3.67 FIP in 16 innings. This season, he has a 3.74 ERA, which seems good on the surface, but he has a 6.26 xERA with a 5.12 FIP. He has a 15.2% K% with a 10.8% BB% and has allowed a 46% Hard Hit% with an 11.3% Barrel%.
Ortiz has allowed a .427 wOBA with the bases empty, but a .277 wOBA with men on base and a .296 wOBA with RISP, so he’s buckled down when it matters most…and has gotten lucky as well. We’ll see if his luck runs out here against the Padres, who have failed to get the big hit in most of their games.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-190, 8.5)
Steve Cohen’s soliloquy wound up being a dud, as he took responsibility for the team’s bad start, but said little else as we approach the halfway point of the season. New York is a big favorite here again today with Max Scherzer on the hill against Adrian Houser. Unlike other high-profile teams that are struggling (Astros, specifically), the Mets continue to be respected in the betting markets. Some days they’ve validated that respect and other days they haven’t.
Let’s see if they do today, as Scherzer comes in with a 3.95 ERA with a 3.43 xERA and a 4.12 FIP over his 70.2 innings of work. He’s on track for his first K% under 30% since 2014 and he’s had some clunkers this season, but he’s also allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts. In his five-run start against Atlanta, he still struck out 10. With more good starts than bad starts lately, plus Milwaukee’s lack of offensive prowess, I’d assume he pitches pretty well here.
Houser is actually having a nice season for the Brewers with a 4.02 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and a 3.95 FIP. He has a really low K% at 14% and a high BABIP at .333, but he’s largely worked around his .333 BABIP and is proof that limiting home runs can neutralize a lot of other shortcomings. Houser has only allowed three homers this season and, despite allowing 62 baserunners via hit or walk in 40.1 innings, he’s only given up 20 total runs.
This will be his first start since June 9, though, as he’s made two relief appearances and had an extended 10-day absence. That scares me a bit in terms of how sharp he’ll actually be in this one.
Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 10) at Chicago Cubs
Veteran right-handers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Hendricks meet in the series finale between the Phillies and Cubs. Walker is on a heater right now with increased velo and four stellar starts in a row. He’s allowed two earned runs in his last 26 innings pitched with 26 strikeouts against six walks. He went through a bit of a dead arm period earlier in the season and also had a couple of starts with a noticeable velo decrease, but he and pitching coach Caleb Cotham figured out some things mechanically to free up his delivery and it has paid huge dividends.
For the full season, Walker has a 4.10 ERA with a 4.49 FIP over 83.1 innings, but this is a clear-cut example of how pitchers make adjustments as the season goes along. Inevitably, something happens, mechanics get out of whack, and the cycle starts again, but Walker is in a good place right now and will try to ride that wave as long as possible.
Hendricks has a 2.60 ERA with a 4.18 xERA and a 3.54 FIP in his six starts across 34.2 innings. I backed him in his first start against the Mets and paid the price, but he’s been rather good otherwise, although, he’s really missing bats at a much lower rate than usual. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but he only has 18 in 34.2 innings and just six in his last 19.1 innings pitched.
Hendricks is doing what he usually does with a 34.5% Hard Hit% against and he has only allowed one homer in his six starts. He’s also only walked nine batters, so he hasn’t hurt himself with the long ball or the free pass. He’s also induced a 52.5% GB% in his last three starts, so he’s keeping the ball on the ground to really avoid any detrimental contact. The Phillies are swinging it well, though, so I think this is a good test for Hendricks.
I’m also curious to see if Walker keeps it going. I think this is a fair line with the side. The total looks to be a little high, as a light breeze is blowing out on a warm evening with showers hanging around. I don't like to get invested in games where we might lose the starters, but for how these two are pitching, 10 seems a little optimistic.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200, 12) at Colorado Rockies
Emmet Sheehan will get his first taste of Coors Field in this one, as the rookie right-hander lines it up for the series finale in Denver. Sheehan threw six no-hit innings in his debut against the Giants and followed it up by giving up two solo homers and one additional hit against the Astros over six frames. In some respects, the second start was actually better than the first one for Sheehan, as he controlled the zone better and had a 10.3% SwStr% compared to a 4.5% mark in his first start.
In 53.1 innings at Double-A to start the year, Sheehan had 88 strikeouts, so he had some big swing and miss numbers down there. It was 19.7% to be exact. So, we’ll see if he continues to deepen his arsenal and keep MLB hitters off-balance as his career moves forward. He does throw a ton of fastballs and MLB hitters will get to fastballs in any spot, at any velo, so that’ll be something he has to adjust to in the bigs. So far, he’s thrown over 65% fastballs with an average velo of 95.8 mph. To be honest, it’s not a bad thing at Coors Field, where breaking pitches don’t always do what you want them to do.
Anderson has a 5.79 ERA with a 5.68 xERA and a 6.61 FIP in his 42 innings this season and his last two starts are the reasons why. He’s allowed 16 runs on 17 hits in his last 5.2 innings pitched with six walks against just three strikeouts. He’s allowed five homers in his last two starts and 10 in his last five starts. I see this and it makes me think about Julio Teheran.
Anderson’s last three MLB seasons prior to this one featured a 6.81 ERA with a 5.78 FIP over 105.2 innings pitched, so there was no degree of sustainability to what he did early on. Eventually, he was going to turn back into a pumpkin and it has clearly happened. I’m not seeing many redeeming qualities heading into this start either.
I’m not sure how Sheehan’s first taste of the altitude will go. Rain is also in the forecast here and that could put the game into a delay or make things a little weird. It’s ultimately a stay-away game for me.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-150, 9)
The Tigers will send Reese Olson to the mound and the Rangers will counter with Cody Bradford. This is Jon Gray’s turn in the rotation, but he’s pushed back, as Bradford makes his first MLB start since June 13. He pitched two-thirds of an inning on Monday, so we’ll see how far he can go in this one.
Bradford has allowed nine runs on 14 hits in 15 innings at the MLB level. He’s allowed a 55.6% Hard Hit% and a 20% Barrel% in that span with an average exit velocity of 94.8 mph. Suffice it to say that he’s not really fooling too many hitters. That’s weird because he has a 1.82 ERA in 59.1 innings at Triple-A with 50 strikeouts against 14 walks, but he also has a 4.40 FIP and a 5.91 xFIP down there, so regression signs are virtually everywhere.
Olson has some positive regression signs in his profile. He has a 4.74 ERA, but a 3.82 xERA and a 3.82 FIP over 24.2 innings pitched. He has a 53.9% LOB% on the season, even though he has a 27.7% K% with a strong 5.9% BB%. He has a .211 BA against and a .254 BABIP against, as he has allowed four homers. He’s given up a few too many barrels, but his Hard Hit% against is pretty solid at 37.3% and he’s got a solid 11.8% SwStr% to go along with that high strikeout rate.
He’s a very interesting guy and one I’ll be watching closely with the Tigers as we go forward. Bradford is interesting, too, in that I wonder when all this hard contact allowed really catches up with him. Perhaps it will be today. The Rangers do have a four-game weekend set with the Astros coming in, so is this maybe a bit of a lookahead spot for them against the lowly Tigers? I’d need a little more on the price for that.
Cleveland Guardians (-145, 9) at Kansas City Royals
Shane Bieber gets the call here for the Guardians against Zack Greinke and the Royals on a very sultry day in Kansas City. Temps are in the 100s with heat indices a few degrees higher, so it should be a good day for hitting. That doesn’t seem to bode well for either of these guys. Maybe Cleveland can follow up yesterday’s 14-run outburst with some more offense.
Bieber has a 3.69 ERA with a 4.12 FIP on the season, but it’s that 4.95 xERA that really stands out in my mind. His K% is up to 18.5%, as he looked like the Bieber of old for five innings last time out, but then the walls caved in and he went single, double, three-run homer in the sixth to turn a quality into another one that makes me question how good he is these days.
Over his last eight starts, Bieber has a 4.84 ERA with a 4.70 FIP and has allowed eight home runs. His K% is up slightly, but his command is down and he’s actually allowed a 45.9% Hard Hit% in that span. It’s been as ugly as it sounds. He’ll still throw the occasional gem, but the days of Bieber being a Cy Young candidate are in the past and now the Guardians just have to hope that they can get enough value back in a trade for him this summer.
It isn’t going particularly well for Greinke either, whose career is winding down in his age-39 season. He has a 5.31 ERA with a 4.95 xERA and a 4.63 FIP over 81.1 innings of work. His K% is actually up 5.5% from last season and his BB% has been cut down to 3.3%, but he has a 64.2% LOB% and has allowed 15 homers in 16 starts with some really ugly outings, including his last four. Greinke has allowed 19 runs in four June starts over 19 innings pitched.
Opposing batters own a .373/.373/.804 slash and a .492 wOBA in 51 plate appearances the third time through, as Greinke has allowed six homers in that split. For a pitch-to-contact guy against a contact-oriented lineup on the hottest day of the year in KC, none of this looks all that promising.
Getaway day game overs scare me because you never know if the teams will be in a hurry to move on and just won’t be engaged in the game. I also mentioned yesterday the complete lack of contact quality for Cleveland. While their offensive numbers have improved in June, they’re still not hitting balls hard. These are two bottom-five offenses against righties and we need to get to 10 runs. I’m just not confident enough that we get there.
New York Yankees (-190, 8) at Oakland Athletics
After giving up 17 runs in his previous two starts, Domingo German threw the 24th perfect game in MLB history last night. The Yankees also scored 11 runs after scoring 56 runs in 20 June games prior to last night. Baseball, once again, makes no sense.
Clarke Schmidt gets the call in another getaway day game, as the A’s will use Hogan Harris, either as the starter or as the bulk reliever. Harris has allowed 18 runs on 24 hits in 33 innings pitched, but he gave up six runs on one hit and five walks in his MLB debut back on April 14. Since his recall on May 27, Harris has a 3.31 ERA with a 3.64 FIP, so he’s actually been quite good. He just had a bad outing against Toronto with four runs allowed on five hits in 4.2 innings, but that was largely because of four walks. He only allowed three hard-hit balls in that outing.
Schmidt gave up seven runs against the Rays on May 14. Since then, he’s allowed 10 total runs in his last seven starts, with nine earned for a 2.19 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. He’s riding an 85.8% LOB% with a decreased K% from what he had earlier in the season, so I don’t know how long this continues, but he’s only allowed five barrels and a 38.4% Hard Hit%. It seems like the message from pitching coach Matt Blake was to not be afraid to pitch to contact instead of trying to strike everybody out and making mistakes trying to be too fine. Schmidt also has only nine walks in that span.
Prior to that, Schmidt had a huge 25.7% K%, but also had a 6.30 ERA with a 4.66 FIP and has allowed eight homers in 40 innings pitched. He had a 48.8% Hard Hit% and a 12.2% Barrel%. So, he made the adjustment to focus more on his command and it has worked out. It’s just a matter of how sustainable it is, but he’s been able to navigate the Rangers and Red Sox in his last three starts, so that’s been a positive development.