MLB schedule today has 8 games
It is a small MLB card and half of it will be over by the early afternoon (PT) with four of today’s eight games starting in the early-morning hours. Those are all 1 p.m. starts for those of you on the East Coast, but it will be a diminished day on the diamond with a lot of travel days in advance of weekend series.
With the early games, there’s no time to waste in hopes of getting this out quickly, so let’s get to the action.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 22 card (odds from DraftKings):
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 8)
Yesterday’s rainout pushed Aaron Nola back, but it did not push AJ Smith-Shawver back. The Braves will leapfrog him and roll with Bryce Elder in this early game at Citizens Bank Park. Elder has experienced a bit of regression recently, but has also improved some of his advanced metrics in the process.
He comes into this start with a 2.60 ERA, 3.91 xERA and 3.81 FIP. He has a 20.7% K%, which is roughly around league average for starters. His 57% GB% is a tremendous asset and it’s why his 44.4% Hard Hit% hasn’t been that harmful, but that’s the number that has really improved, as he was up closer to 50% not that long ago. He’s started to induce weaker contact, thus lowering his xERA, but he’s still had a couple of rough outings recently against the Mets and Nationals.
Still, it’s hard to manufacture enough hits in today’s game to score a lot of runs against ground ball guys and he’s only allowed eight homers, though five have come in his last five starts. I still think a 2.60 ERA is optimistic for him, but it’s gradually regressing and that’ll likely be how it goes going forward.
Here’s what I wrote about Nola yesterday:
Nola has a 4.66 ERA with a 3.65 xERA and a 4.17 FIP in his 94.2 innings of work. His low 61.9% LOB% is what is hurting his ERA the most, as his K% is the lowest it has been since his rookie year in 2015. He’s also really struggling lately, as he has allowed 22 runs over his last five starts, including a rough outing against Atlanta. In that span, he has a 5.34 ERA with a 4.66 FIP and has given up seven homers. He does have 40 strikeouts, though, so maybe he’s coming around from a K% standpoint.
It’s a cooler day in Philly with temps in the 60s and winds blowing in from RF, so not exactly conducive to offense. I don’t really like anything here and wouldn’t if it was a 7:05 game either.
San Diego Padres (-135, 8) at San Francisco Giants
The Giants won again yesterday by a 4-2 count as Sean Hjelle threw four innings of shutout relief and picked up the win. The Giants used six relievers yesterday, including Camilo Doval for the fourth time in six days, so I’d assume he’s unavailable for today’s game. Tyler Rogers might be as well after working back-to-back days. Given that the Giants are sending out Alex Wood, it looks a little bit dicey on the whole.
Wood did throw five shutout innings against the Dodgers last time out. He’s maxed out at 5.2 innings, but that was his first start since returning from a second stint on the IL. He was actually extremely efficient with his 67 pitches and I’d assume he’s somewhere around 75-80 today, which could get him through five innings or maybe even more if he is effective. As mentioned yesterday in regards to Sean Manaea, the Padres did enter that game with a top-10 offense against lefties from a wOBA standpoint, but they didn’t even see Manaea, as the Giants smartly stayed away.
However, Wood is a lefty and he’ll be expected to work as much of this one as he can, so we’ll see how that works out. He has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.25 FIP in eight starts and one relief outing, but like I said, this is his second start back from another IL stint.
There have been a lot of issues for the Padres this season, but Blake Snell has not really been one of them. Snell has a 3.48 ERA with a 4.55 xERA and a 4.21 FIP in his 75 innings of work. He’s got a huge K% and a high BB% and this season has added a few more homers to his tab, but he’s been very good for a whole now.
He allowed six runs on May 19 to the Red Sox, but he has a 2.76 ERA with a 3.81 FIP in his last 11 starts. If we cut that back to his last five starts, he has allowed just two runs on 14 hits over his last 30 innings pitched. Snell has allowed one homer in that span with a 45/13 K/BB ratio and has faced the Nationals, Marlins, Cubs, Rockies, and Rays, so four offenses that have either been good all season or have had good numbers at one time against lefties.
The Padres pen is also up against it a little bit, as Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, and Steven Wilson would all be working a fourth time in six days and Tim Hill would be working his third time in four days. With the -135 price tag, that’s a lot, given that Snell is usually a five-and-dive guy.
I do lean Padres today, but that price does seem a little bit stiff to pay.