MLB schedule today has 15 games
It will be a Saturday in the park for all 30 MLB teams and 15 fan bases as we look at a full slate for June 24. Today’s card includes an early game in London between the Cardinals and Cubs with a total of 13.5 at London Stadium. That was the only really early start of the day, as MLB wanted that to be a standalone showcase and I had no idea what to expect in that game, so my primary focus was the other 14 games and finding some good wagers to round out this week for the article.
Here’s a look at the Saturday card.
|
Follow me on Twitter, @SkatingTripods, to get the article right as it goes live. (Tracking sheet)
VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the June 24 card (odds from DraftKings):
Chicago Cubs (-130, 13.5) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (London)
Justin Steele and Adam Wainwright start off this one, while Marcus Stroman and Jack Flaherty are scheduled for Sunday’s 10 a.m. ET first pitch. I thought former VSiN contributor Derek Carty did a good job summing up the ballpark and the uncertainties of this game with his tweet thread on what THE BAT (his projection system) expects and his interpretation of this two-game series. (https://twitter.com/DerekCarty/status/1672356397160230915)
I think the biggest takeaways are that the ridiculously high-scoring games we had between the Red Sox and Yankees (17-13 and 12-8) may not have fully been on the up and up during that 2019 season, plus the balls were juiced to begin with. There is a lot of foul territory at London Stadium that could steal some at bats. Also, the fences have been moved back a little in the deeper parts of the park to make it more of a neutral stadium, though CF is still only 392 feet, which is quite shallow by MLB standards.
The most interesting note is that pitchers and coaches were saying that pitches weren’t moving the same because of the stadium design during those 2019 games. Carty’s thread mentions that the working theory is that stadium was apparently designed to limit drag for runners, thus hurting the environmental resistance on pitches.
I didn’t get the article out in time for today’s game, but this will be relevant to tomorrow’s.
New York Mets (-125, 9.5) at Philadelphia Phillies
An NL East matchup between the Mets and Phillies starts us off, as Max Scherzer battles it out with Cristopher Sanchez. Scherzer has had a really strange season in a lot of different ways. He has a 4.04 ERA with a 3.44 xERA and a 4.22 FIP, as he’s given up way too many homers and has endured a big K% drop, while mixing in some really good starts with a few clunkers.
Scherzer went eight masterful innings against the Astros last time out with eight strikeouts, but had allowed 11 runs on 18 hits in his previous two starts against the Yankees and Braves. Prior to that, Scherzer had allowed three earned runs over a stretch of 25 innings. He’s been vocal about the pitch clock and also had a foreign substance suspension. The reality, though, is that he’s been too inconsistent to back in most instances, especially because his name still carries a lot of weight in the investment markets.
This will be the third start for Sanchez of the season at the MLB level. He’s allowed three runs on six hits in 8.1 innings with a home start against the Rockies and a road start against the A’s. He’s got 10 strikeouts against three walks and had been throwing well at Triple-A prior to his call-up. He had a 4.35 ERA over 49.2 innings, but had only allowed six earned runs over his last 23 innings before getting the call.
No idea what to do here, as the Mets continue to slump offensively and get some subpar relief work. The Phillies offense has gotten going in June and Scherzer’s inconsistencies could lead to a variety of outcomes.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 8) at San Francisco Giants
Merrill Kelly takes the hill against opener Ryan Waker as the D-Backs and Giants duke it out again. Zach Davies was not effective again yesterday, as the Giants got back to their winning ways after having their 10-game winning streak snapped on Thursday. Walker opening means we’ll likely see Sean Manaea, as the Giants mix and match their bulk guys based on the matchup. Arizona has a top-10 offense against righties, but roughly a league average one against lefties.
Manaea did work an inning in relief two days ago to help out the Giants bullpen, but he hadn’t pitched in six days, so he should be fine for multiples today. He has a 5.72 ERA with a 4.41 FIP, but has not allowed an earned run in five of his last seven outings. He’s given up four runs twice in that span, both on the road, with appearances against the Rockies and Dodgers.
Walker could go multiples or at least work through part of the second inning as the opener. He’s struggled a bit in this role, though, allowing a solo homer, three walks, and three hits in his two starts, both against the Padres. On the whole, he has a 1.56 ERA with a 3.22 FIP and has limited the opposition to a 20% Hard Hit%.
Kelly has a 2.90 ERA with a 3.99 xERA and a 3.67 FIP in his 90 innings of work over 15 starts. He has not allowed more than three runs in a start since May 10, as he continues to be a stabilizing force for a D-Backs rotation that is lacking upside arms. Kelly has allowed some hard contact of late, though, as he has allowed eight barrels in his last three starts and 25 hard-hit balls in 49 batted ball events. That’s a 51% HH% and a bit of a scary metric, as it would appear he’s losing his command a bit and maybe working towards a rough start.
Kelly has held lefties to a .246 wOBA in 179 PA, though, so this might be a pretty decent matchup for him against a Giants lineup that deploys a lot of left-handed swingers. He’s also only allowed two of his nine homers on the road.
Tough handicap all the way around I think and a good one to bypass, especially with Arizona’s recent travel annoyances and the Giants having used their primary relievers a ton over the last week and a half.
Atlanta Braves (-130, 12) at Cincinnati Reds
Apparently 12 runs was not a lot to get to yesterday, as both teams got to double-digits on their own. Twenty-one runs were scored in a thriller in Cincinnati and the Reds prevailed with an 11-10 win to run their winning streak to 12 games. Graham Ashcraft returns today, so we’ll see if he can get on track after missing time due to a calf injury. It will be southpaw Jared Shuster for the Braves.
If you had told me that Ashcraft would be having the season he’s having, but the Reds would be in first place on June 24, I wouldn’t have believed you. He has a 6.78 ERA with a 5.37 xERA and a 5.10 FIP in 65 innings pitched. He has been objectively bad with a huge spike in BB%, a minimal increase in K%, more homers allowed, fewer ground balls, and a very low LOB%, which has actually been an issue throughout his career.
The raw stuff for Ashcraft is so good, but he just can’t harness his command or his control. It is such a disappointing set of circumstances because the comps on his pitches from a velo and spin rate standpoint suggest he should be good, but he simply has not been. He missed exactly 15 days on the IL and had been simply awful before going on the list. He allowed 30 runs on 37 hits in 21.2 innings over his last five starts and did not make any rehab appearances before getting activated.
Shuster has a 4.57 ERA with a 4.93 xERA and a 4.46 FIP in his 41.1 innings of work. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy with a high walk rate and a lot of fly balls, so this seems like a terrible combination for Great American Ball Park. He’s somehow running a 3.2% HR/FB% over eight starts and has a 6.21 xFIP, so that’ll give you an idea of how luck he’s been to not allow home runs. He has just a 13.1% K% and a 12.6% BB% on the season.
Since getting recalled on May 16, Shuster has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start and he’s gone at least five innings in each one of them. He has a 3.58 ERA with a 4.25 FIP and a 5.74 xFIP in that span. So, again, there are some huge regression signs in the profile.
I’ll say it again and maybe be annoyed that I left it alone, but asking for 13 runs in a MLB game is a lot. The pitching matchup may be ripe for it, but I can’t get invested. I also don’t feel comfortable with either side here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins (-170, 8)
It will be Osvaldo Bido and Bryan Hoeing here, as the NL slate is just not very pretty today. The right-handed Bido has a 3.60 ERA with a 2.47 FIP and a 3.66 xERA over his first two MLB starts across 10 innings of work. He’s struck out 13 and walked five with four runs allowed on nine hits in 45 plate appearances. Both of his starts have come against the Cubs, as he was better in his second start than his first one, which is usually a little rare for a young pitcher.
After allowing seven hard-hit balls in 10 batted ball events in his first start, Bido allowed just four on 15 BBE in his second start. He hasn’t allowed a barrel yet. In 55.1 innings at Triple-A, he had a 4.55 ERA with a 56/26 K/BB ratio and it was tough to get a read on him because of the variance in his results. I still think it’s tricky at this point, even with a couple MLB data points.
The Pirates recently added Bryan Reynolds to the IL, so they’re missing arguably their best hitter with some back issues. That means that Bido and the other rotation guys have a really limited margin for error. Wins like last night’s 3-1 victory are probably what they have to hope for, but what a terrific performance Luis Ortiz provided yesterday with eight top-notch innings.
Hoeing has a 2.70 ERA with a 3.80 xERA and a 3.44 FIP in 30 innings this season. This will be just his fourth start, as he started two games in April and then got the start last time out with four shutout innings against the Blue Jays. Hoeing has only allowed two earned runs in his last 18.1 innings of work, mostly in relief, but the Pirates have a low offensive ceiling, so he could keep it going.
The ugly card rolls on.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres (-195, 9)
So, we’ve got a really, really interesting starter here in Matt Waldron. The last knuckleball thrown by an actual pitcher in the Majors came two years ago. I believe Steven Wright is the last knuckleballer to get a start and that came back on June 22, 2018. He allowed 10 runs in the Red Sox loss to the Mariners.
Waldron has been absolutely crushed at Triple-A the last two seasons. He has a 7.74 ERA with 23 homers allowed in 136 innings pitched. Nobody really sees a knuckleball anymore, so I have no idea how the Nationals will do with it. Also, Waldron throws a harder knuckle around 80 mph, so it isn’t quite the traditional version, but it should be really interesting to see what happens here. He’s struck out 75 in 66.2 innings.
San Diego’s Triple-A affiliate is in El Paso and, as I’ve talked about before, pitching in the PCL is a nightmare. Many have speculated that Waldron’s knuckler would work better at sea level and he’ll finally get the chance to really show that here with a start at Petco Park, which is at 13 feet above sea level. El Paso is 3,740 feet above sea level. So, I’m sure people will scoff at his minor league numbers, but he did have a 2.84 ERA and a 3.44 FIP in Double-A in 2022 for the San Antonio Missions. San Antonio is 650 feet in elevation.
Josiah Gray gets the call for the Nats today. He has a 3.64 ERA, but a 4.42 xERA and a 4.88 FIP in his 84 innings of work. I’ve talked about him a lot as a negative regression candidate and it appears to be happening. He has allowed 15 runs over his last 22.1 innings pitched, including a six-run blow-up over five innings against the Cardinals five days ago. Gray’s low K% and high LOB% led to a lot of questions about the sustainability of his performance and we’re seeing those play out a bit now.
He’s allowed 11 barrels in his last five starts, which doubles his season total over 15 starts. He’s actually continued to do a good job of limiting hard contact otherwise, but he’s had a reversal of fortunes to some degree.
Obviously, I have no play today with Waldron going and no idea how he’ll fare or how the Nats will do against a knuckleballer. Most guys in that lineup probably haven’t seen more than a handful of knuckleballs in years. But, I’ll be continuing to watch Gray closely for more signs of regression.
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 9)
Yesterday’s Orioles handicap could not have gone worse, as they did nothing of consequence against Logan Gilbert and ultimately got blown out to start off this weekend set. Let’s see if they fare any better today against Bryce Miller, as Dean Kremer gets the call at home. Miller has been solid with a 3.68 ERA, 3.80 xERA and a 3.12 FIP over 51.1 innings of work. He has strong K/BB numbers with a 22.7% K% and a 4.0% BB%. He’s got a .237 BABIP against and just a .197 BA against with a 39.2% Hard Hit% that ranks right around league average.
Miller has had two beyond awful starts, as he allowed 15 runs on 19 hits in seven innings against the Rangers and Yankees in back-to-back outings. In his other seven starts, he’s allowed a total of six runs. Since giving up seven runs in 2.1 innings to the Rangers, he’s gotten back on track with two runs allowed on five hits in 13 innings against the Marlins and White Sox. It is a road start for Miller on a hot, humid day at Oriole Park, so we’ll see how he fares.
Kremer has a 4.56 ERA with a 5.88 xERA and a 4.63 FIP in his 81 innings of work. He’s given up 14 homers already after allowing just 11 in 125.1 innings last season. The right-hander has a decent K% at 20.7% and a strong BB% at 6.1%, but a huge 46.2% Hard Hit%, so that is a major concern. He’s also allowed a 10% Barrel%, which is certainly on the high side. His wOBA against is 56 points lower at home, even though his ERA is 12 points higher, so that’s a little bit odd going into this one.
After an awful month of April, though, Kremer has a 3.33 ERA with a 3.98 FIP in his 51.1 innings over nine starts since May 5. He’s allowed more than three runs just once in a start and has gone at least five innings in each. I don’t see a grand edge in this game, but as I mentioned yesterday, the back-end guys for Baltimore are very well-rested if this game is close in the middle innings and that could be a live betting angle.
Texas Rangers (-140, 9) at New York Yankees
Jon Gray and the Rangers are hefty favorites against Luis Severino and the Yankees in this one, as the Rangers look to build off of yesterday’s extra-inning dub in the Bronx. Rain threatens this game, so we’ll see if they can get it in clean or have to start late.
The Severino that we saw in his first two starts back is not at all the Severino that we’re seeing now. He allowed two earned runs in 11.1 innings against the Reds and Padres to start the MLB portion of his season, but has since given up 21 runs in four starts and 19 of them have been earned. Severino is giving up tons of loud contact and has allowed seven homers in that span. His Hard Hit% is 55.9% with a 14.7% Barrel% in those four starts over 68 batted ball events.
He only has an 8.5% SwStr% and is getting very few chases outside the zone. His velocity looks fine and actually ticked up last time out against Boston, but his command profile is nowhere to be found. He did have a 31.3% HH% and allowed just one barrel against the Red Sox, so maybe that was a building block, but he still allowed four runs over five innings and now draws a really exceptional Rangers offense.
Gray was riding a nice high, but then ran into a dreaded blister and had to be skipped in the rotation. In his first start on 10 days rest, he allowed six runs on six hits in 2.1 innings of work against Toronto with three walks and two strikeouts. His previous start was a complete game with 12 punchies against the Cardinals and he had allowed all of four earned runs in his previous six starts going into that Toronto outing.
Obviously I can’t do much with Gray here until I see him bounce back from the blister issue. I think a lot of bettors will look at the over here with Severino’s command woes and some negative regression signs in the profile for Gray, who has a 2.96 ERA with a 4.25 FIP and a 4.16 xERA. He does have an 81.7% LOB% with a 21.7% K%, but he had been doing better in the K department after getting off to a slow start this season.
I can’t argue with anybody interested in the over. It’s just not a bet I’m on today, since the Yankees offense is really watered-down at present and Gray could absolutely bounce back.
Oakland A’s at Toronto Blue Jays (-280, 9)
A really fortunate push on this total leads us into tonight’s matchup between the A’s and Blue Jays. I don’t have the same conviction on the total here, nor do I want to lay the huge number or take the huge number. I’m also less enthused about the total with Shintaro Fujinami as the opener for the A’s. He’s been better lately in relief, but has still allowed 18 runs in 20.2 innings as a reliever.
I will say that Hogan Harris has been really good since his recall. His 4.45 ERA and 3.77 FIP don’t tell the entire story, as he allowed six runs on one hit and five walks in his MLB debut on April 14. Since getting recalled on May 27, Harris has a 2.57 ERA with a 3.13 FIP and has only allowed eight runs on 18 hits in 28 innings of work. He’s allowed a little bit of hard contact with a 41.8% Hard Hit%, but that number has been down in his last two starts.
Jose Berrios has a 3.64 ERA with a 4.58 xERA and a 3.86 FIP in his 89 innings pitched. He just gave up five runs on eight hits over four innings to the Marlins for his worst start since May 1 and the first time he had allowed more than three runs since then. He had actually only allowed more than two runs once in that span. With a 32.2% Hard Hit%, I’m not entirely sure why his xERA is so high. He’s got a 7.8% Barrel%, so that’s fine. He has a 21.5% K%, which is pretty average for a starter. I don’t really get it. Maybe it’s an accounting error.
Anyway, this game probably has a better chance at staying under than going over, as Harris has been even better than Kaprielian recently, but Toronto’s two primary relievers – Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson – have each worked three of the last four days and Trevor Richards has worked two of three, so the lesser arms will be called into action if this one is close and late and that scares me.
Boston Red Sox (-115, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
James Paxton and Lance Lynn are the listed hurlers here, as this may be a line that catches some people by surprise. We’ve actually seen some interest in Chicago from a line movement standpoint and I’m not sure I see a compelling reason to back Lynn and the Pale Hose.
Lynn has a 6.51 ERA with a 4.95 FIP and a 4.86 xERA. Sure, his .342 BABIP is really high and his 61.4% LOB% is really low, so you would expect regression in those metrics, especially when he has a 26.9% K%. However, positive regression won’t just magically come with a bad command profile. Lynn has allowed 18 homers in 84.1 innings after allowing 18 in 157 innings in 2021 and 19 in 121.2 innings last season. Hell, he allowed 21 homers in 208.1 innings back in 2019. He just isn’t commanding the ball well.
He had 16 strikeouts last time out to really run up his strikeout numbers, as the Mariners basically couldn’t make contact with anything. In three starts prior to that, Lynn had allowed 18 runs on 22 hits in 14 innings. Lynn is back from the bereavement list for this start. It didn’t cause him to miss any time, but obviously there was a development in his personal life.
I’m not sure how long his arm will stay intact, but what a lift Paxton has provided to the BoSox. He’s got a 3.29 ERA with a 3.39 xERA and a 3.25 FIP in his 38.1 innings of work. He’s been spectacular with a 32.7% K% and a 7.1% BB%. He had one hiccup against the Angels, but hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any other start and has only allowed five homers. His Hard Hit% is near league average at 39.8% and his Barrel%, which is a little high at 10.8%, should go down if he keeps inducing more grounders like he has in his last two starts.