MLB schedule today has 6 games
We’ve got an easy lead-in to this week’s baseball slate, as Monday brings us just a six-pack of games. This will be the last day short of double digits until the All-Star Break, which begins after the games are completed on July 9, so the teams might as well enjoy a day off while they can steal it.
It’s a bit of a late start for me today after doing a spot on A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander to talk about the 2023 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, which comes out on Thursday. It is a huge week for us and we would greatly appreciate it if you would encourage your friends, family, and coworkers to subscribe, and even do so yourself if you haven’t. Along with all of the daily written content and our other season guides, we’re planning to unveil some exciting new betting tools this summer that you can access as part of your subscription.
It’s been a little while since I’ve taken stock of the offensive numbers around the league, so let’s do that briefly.
Season: .248/.320/.409, .297 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 12.2% HR/FB%
June: .247/.318/.410, .296 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.4% BB%, 12.1% HR/FB%
Looks just about identical, eh? The first week of June was awful for offense, but things stabilized quickly.
Last 14 days: .251/.320/.416, .300 BABIP, 22.6% K%, 8.3% BB%, 12.5% HR/FB%
We’ll have to keep an eye on the homer numbers. It’s getting to be hot and/or humid in a lot of places now and that will drive more offense.
Let’s look at the Monday games.
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the June 26 card (odds from DraftKings):
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-175, 8.5)
It was a good weekend for the Brewers, who took two of three from the Guardians, who continue to get a ton of questionable in-game decisions from Terry Francona. Milwaukee heads to Queens to take on a Mets team in absolute shambles. Speaking of managerial decisions, the Mets turned a 6-3 lead into a 7-6 loss on Sunday when Buck Showalter didn’t want to use his well-rested primary relievers for some unknown reason.
We’ll see if he gets the chance to right that wrong today. Justin Verlander and the Mets are sizable favorites against Colin Rea and the Brewers, so the line would imply that New York will have a lead to protect. That may be a little bit of an optimistic take, since Verlander, who has a 4.50 ERA with a 3.88 xERA and a 4.33 FIP in 52 innings hasn’t been himself this season. Over his nine starts, he’s allowed at least four runs four times, including his last start against Houston with four runs on eight hits.
That said, if Verlander follows his current pattern, he’ll pitch well. Over his last seven starts, Verlander has allowed four, one, five, one, six, one, and six runs. Overall, he’s allowed a 44.3% Hard Hit% and a 7.6% Barrel%. But, the biggest takeaway to me is that he only has four starts with a double-digit SwStr% and only two in his last seven starts. As I talked about going into his last start, his K% is down 7.3% from last season and 4.3% from his caterer average, but down nearly 15% from his 2019 season.
Rea has a 4.88 ERA with a 4.28 xERA and a 4.86 FIP in his 62.2 innings of work. He’s got pretty pedestrian numbers across the board and has allowed 10 homers in 12 starts and one relief appearance. Since May 14, Rea has had four starts with at least four runs allowed and two starts of shutout baseball for at least five innings.
Neither starter is all that trustworthy here, though Verlander should at least have the higher ceiling and the Mets should have the better offense. It’s just not worth the big price.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-200, 9)
Matthew Boyd and Andrew Heaney start us off on the AL side with a southpaw skirmish in Arlington. Boyd has run on the wrong side of luck this season, as he has a 5.37 ERA with a 4.02 xERA and a 4.25 FIP in his 70.1 innings of work. He’s got over a strikeout per inning and a really solid 23.7% K% with a league average 8.3% BB%, but his 61.7% LOB% is what really stands out.