MLB schedule today has 14 games
It is a rare Friday with only 14 games because the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are preparing to play in London on Saturday and Sunday. Other than that, 28 teams will line up this evening and either kick off a weekend series or continue what they started last night.
With lots of games to get to and three hours of Sharp Money with Patrick Meagher and Dustin Swedelson on the horizon, let’s dive right into the action.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 23 card (odds from DraftKings):
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins (-190, 7.5)
The Pirates and Marlins started their four-game set last night and Game 1 went the way of the hometown Fish with a big comeback in the eighth inning of a 6-4 win. At least Mitch Keller pitched better for Pittsburgh, but his bullpen failed him and the Marlins won another close game. They’re a much larger favorite today as Jesus Luzardo goes up against Luis Ortiz.
Luzardo has a 4.09 ERA due to a little bit of bad luck, as his 3.86 xERA and 3.63 FIP suggest some positive fortunes on the horizon. He’s struck out nearly 27% of batters faced and has a career-best 6.3% BB%, so he’s having quite the fine season. His Hard Hit% is a touch on the high side at 40.4% and so is his Barrel% at 12.2%, but he’s been dynamite at home and that’s where this start will take place.
Luzardo has allowed a .278 wOBA and has a 3.04 ERA at home compared to a .383 wOBA against on the road and a 5.45 ERA. Fortunately, he’s thrown 11 more innings at home and will add to that total today, but he’s definitely a guy we have to look at differently on the road moving forward.
Ortiz is a JAG – Just A Guy – for this Pirates rotation. He’s only 24, so there’s hope for the future, but his K/BB numbers are quite poor and he’s lucky to only have a 4.30 ERA with a 6.81 xERA and a 5.56 FIP in 37.2 innings of work. He’s only struck out 15.1% of opposing batters and has an 11.6% BB% to go along with a sky-high Hard Hit% of 49.2%. The only thing I could see here is playing Marlins run line, but they love to play (and win) close games, so I’m not taking any part of this one.
Atlanta Braves (-150, 11) at Cincinnati Reds
AJ Smith-Shawver was bumped back because of Wednesday’s rainout and will now start on Friday with a couple of extra days rest. He’ll be opposed by Luke Weaver, as the NL’s two longest win streaks collide. The Braves have rattled off eight in a row, while the Reds have triumphed in 11 straight to take over first place in the NL Central.
Here’s what I wrote about Smith-Shawver prior to Wednesday’s scheduled start:
Smith-Shawver has worked 13.2 innings and allowed five runs (three earned) on nine hits. He’s struck out 11 and walked four with a 2.03 ERA, 4.48 FIP, and a 2.65 xERA. He’s only allowed a 32.4% Hard Hit% and just two barrels in 37 batted ball events thus far over two starts and a relief effort. However, he’s also faced Colorado and Washington in those two starts, so this is a pretty big step up in class.
As I talked about prior to his first start, he’s a ridiculously rapid riser in the Braves system. He worked 8.1 innings at the Complex League in 2021, 68.2 innings in A-ball in 2022, and then made cameos at High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A before being promoted to the Majors at the age of 20. The Braves have done really well with pitcher development, but I think it’s a big ask for this kid to be MLB-ready this quickly.
He’s also a guy who throws over 50% fastballs at about 94 mph. It’s also a low spin rate fastball and I really don’t think he’s going to be able to sustain the results he’s gotten on it so far with a .179 BA and a .286 SLG. The pitch does not generate a lot of swings and misses.
This isn’t the same level of step up in class as facing the Phillies, but also, he’s facing a red-hot Reds lineup in an excellent hitter’s park. He has only allowed five homers in his five minor league/MLB levels, so he is a guy that actively avoids the long ball, but let’s see what he does here with that fastball in a ballpark that punishes mistakes.
Weaver is a guy I’m not fond of at all and this looks like an awful matchup against the Braves bats. He has a 6.47 ERA with a 5.23 xERA and a 5.48 FIP in his 57 innings pitched. Weaver has allowed 18 runs over his last four starts and his Hard Hit% is up to 43.3% with a 10.7% Barrel%. Over his last three starts, he has had just a 4.7% SwStr%. The Braves are very likely to pummel him, especially on a humid night in Cincinnati with the ball likely to carry quite well.
I’m just not sure how much help Cincinnati provides. I don’t love Smith-Shawver, but there’s a chance I’m being too harsh on the kid based on a limited sample size. Braves Over 5.5 at -130 doesn’t seem like a bad bet, I’m just not sure I can take Over 11 in this one.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 9.5)
Kodai Senga and Taijuan Walker square off in the first of just three division games on the docket for Friday. Walker has a 4.31 ERA with a 4.40 xERA and a 4.53 FIP in his 77.1 innings of work, though he has been in a very nice groove over his last six starts with a 1.75 ERA over 36 innings. He has a 3.66 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP in that span, so there are several negative regression signs, including a .237 BABIP against and an 88.4% LOB% with a 19.3% K%. He also has a 42.4% Hard Hit% in that span with just an 8.1% SwStr%.
Walker does seem healthier now than he was earlier in the season, which could simply be what he needed to get back on track. I think there’s just a lot of positive batted ball variance for him in this stretch, but he does seem to be mixing his pitches much more effectively. Plus, over his last three starts, he’s had a big velo bump, with an average FB velocity of 94.1 mph or higher compared to his 93.1 mph for the season and several starts in the 92s. Three of his four best starts by fastball velo have been his last three.
The Mets will counter with Senga, who has worked 71.1 innings over 13 starts in his first MLB season. He threw 148 innings last season and 111.1 innings in 2021, so we’ll see how the Mets treat him in the second half, but everything seems fine for now. He has a 3.53 ERA with a 4.08 xERA and a 4.24 FIP in those 13 starts with a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. Senga has a 28.3% K% and a 13.4% BB%.Recently, he’s been pretty up and down, throwing three excellent starts in his last six outings, but also working on one absolute dud and a couple of mediocre ones. He has allowed a lot of hard contact in his last three starts, though, so we’ll see what that means for today. He does keep the ball on the ground very effectively, so that helps him limit damage with the walks and the occasional home run.
A slight lean to the Mets here, but not nearly enough to play it. Walker’s velo boost may provide some legitimacy to his recent run, but I’ll be watching closely, as he’s a guy that almost always seems to be battling something.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres (-285, 8.5)
The Nationals lost out on yesterday’s travel day and lost yet another baseball game, so it was a long flight out to San Diego to take on the Padres. The Padres ended their road trip on a really high note with a 10-0 win over the Giants to snap San Fran’s 10-game winning streak. Now San Diego is a huge favorite against Washington as a really important part of the schedule has arrived.
The Padres get three with Washington, then head out to face a slumping Pittsburgh team and a surging Reds bunch before coming home to face the Angels and the underperforming Mets. The Padres need to take advantage of series like the next two teams that they will face, though it is really weird to have a three-game stopover at home and then head back out. In any event, the Padres are an historical outlier with RISP and have a terrible record in one-run games with a pretty decent bullpen, so I have to think better fortunes are coming.
We’ll see if they come today with Joe Musgrove on the hill. Musgrove has a 4.22 ERA, but a 3.10 xERA, and a 4.25 FIP over 53.1 innings pitched. He has rounded into form, though, allowing just seven earned runs over his last five starts against the Yankees, Marlins, Mariners, Guardians, and Rays. In that span, he’s also only walked five batters with 23 strikeouts over 29.1 innings pitched. He also has a 55.8% GB% and a remarkable 19.5% Hard Hit% with one barrel allowed.
So, yeah, it’s safe to say that he’s gotten into the rhythms of the season after missing all of Spring Training.
On the other side, Patrick Corbin had a run where he looked something like the Corbin of old, but that has since gone away. He’s allowed 19 runs in his last 28.1 innings pitched and only one of them is unearned. He’s had a couple decent outings in that stretch, but walked five against Houston (two runs) and gave up 11 hits against Arizona (three runs). He has a 45% Hard Hit% in that five-start stretch and the Padres are also better against lefties than they are against righties, so I’m not sure this is an ideal spot for Corbin.
Unfortunately, with San Diego a huge favorite, both on the moneyline and the run line, I don’t see much we can do here with this one. Nationals Team Total Under would’ve been more interesting to me if it wasn’t as low as 2.5. If it was 3.5, even with some under juice, that would’ve been more palatable.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-175, 8)
The Giants have a good chance to get right back in the win column with Logan Webb on the bump against Zach Davies. This is a really difficult handicap in my opinion. Webb has been outstanding this season with a 3.11 ERA, 3.72 xERA, and a 3.58 FIP in his 98.1 innings of work. He’s got a 60.7% GB% and stellar K/BB peripherals with a 24.5% K% and a 4.8% BB%. He actually allowed 16 of his 37 runs over his first four starts, so he’s only allowed 21 runs in his last 11 outings.
His only start in that stretch with more than three runs allowed came at Coors Field, so you don’t worry too much about something like that. I will say that Webb has a 45.3% Hard Hit% for the season and it has even spiked to 53.6% over his last five starts, along with a 10.3% Barrel%. He’s allowing a lot of hard contact right now, but getting away with it for the most part. I’ll also say that four of those five starts have been on the road and Webb’s home ERA is over a run lower than his road ERA over the course of his career.
I generally like to fade teams coming off of a winning streak that lose a game, but Webb is San Francisco’s ace and Davies is far from Arizona’s ace. He’s got a Slurpee with a 7.11 ERA, a 4.40 xERA and a 4.06 FIP in 31.2 innings of work. In three starts after returning from the IL, Davies allowed seven runs on 17 hits to the Red Sox, Rockies, and Nationals, but then the bottom fell out. He allowed six runs (four earned) to the Phillies over three innings and then nine runs (eight earned) to the Guardians over 3.2 innings.
In those two starts, Davies allowed 15 hits, four walks, and a 58% Hard Hit%. The Diamondbacks have some serious starting pitcher issues that they need to address and the problem is that Brandon Pfaadt is getting rocked in Triple-A and Drey Jameson is still pitching as a low-leverage reliever.
Arizona also lost yesterday’s travel day by having to play in Washington. It also forced closer Scott McGough to pitch back-to-back days. Ultimately, this is a stay the hell away kind of game all the way around.
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays (-255, 8)
To the Junior Circuit we go, where the Rays will once again play without Wander Franco, who was benched for two games by manager Kevin Cash. Fortunately, Franco’s absence didn’t derail the over bet in yesterday’s game, but was certainly interesting all the same. The Rays didn’t just lose a game yesterday, but also lost Shane McClanahan. That puts a little more pressure on Zach Eflin and the remaining starters for this squad.
Eflin should be in a good spot today as Zach with an ‘h’ takes on Zack with a ‘k’, as the veteran Greinke gets the call for the Royals. Maybe Eflin should be the one with the k, since he has a 25.5% K% on the season with a strong 4.3% BB%. He’s got a 53.2% GB% as well, so all of the things I love to see from a pitcher. His numbers have also followed suit with a 3.26 ERA, 2.90 xERA, and a 3.17 FIP over 77.1 innings of work.
In the pitcher-friendly conditions of the Trop, Eflin has held opponents to a .224 wOBA and has a 1.85 ERA with a 2.47 FIP. I didn’t realize how home/road numbers had such a big discrepancy, but I’m not terribly surprised to see him thriving in the dome.
Greinke is such a tough guy to back in any context, simply because he allows a lot of balls in play and has given up 14 HR on the season in 76.2 innings pitched. The 39-year-old has a 4.81 ERA with a 5.03 xERA and a 4.60 FIP in his 15 starts, with a spectacular 3.2% BB%, but a below average 18.4% K%. At least that’s up nearly 6% from last season’s K%, but it is still a tough way to make a living.
Greinke also hasn’t completed six innings since April 16, so that puts a ton of strain on the KC bullpen, especially after the group used seven relievers in yesterday’s game. Once again, another game on Friday that simply doesn’t yield a whole lot of betting value.
Minnesota Twins (-130, 9) at Detroit Tigers
The last of our three division games is between the Twins and Tigers, as the lackluster AL Central leaders hit the road as a favorite in Motown. Kenta Maeda returns from injury to get the call for Minnesota here and southpaw Joey Wentz goes for the Tigers.
Maeda hasn’t made a MLB start since April 26 and it, uh, did not go well. He allowed 10 runs on 11 hits in three innings to the Yankees and promptly hit the IL with triceps soreness. He is attempting his comeback from Tommy John surgery and it has been a struggle to say the least. In four rehab assignments, though, Maeda threw the ball well with three runs allowed on 10 hits over 13.1 innings with 17 strikeouts and five walks. He did walk four in his last tune-up, but only allowed one run.
Wentz gets to run it back against Minnesota for the second straight time after having his best start of the season. The sophomore left-hander has a 6.82 ERA with a 5.62 xERA and a 5.16 FIP in 62 innings of work this season, but he struck out nine over six outstanding innings at Target Field six days ago. Wentz only allowed two runs on two hits with a 13.1% SwStr%. For the season, Wentz has a 10.8% SwStr% and more good starts than bad starts since the beginning of May in the swing and miss department, but he’s also given up 12 home runs and a 44.9% Hard Hit% with a .326 BABIP against.
The Twins have been bad against lefties all season long and have struck out a lot this year, so there aren’t many surprising things about what happened with Wentz in that last start. Minnesota is 28th in wOBA against lefties with a 27.4% K%. Will they make the right adjustments today?
I thought about Minnesota at a reasonable price here, but I don’t know what to expect from Maeda. I do think Minnesota is at least a little more successful against Wentz the second time around and the Tigers are awful against righties, but it’s just not the strongest game to wager on today.
Texas Rangers (-115, 8.5) at New York Yankees
Dane Dunning and Clarke Schmidt have had two very different seasons. Dunning heads into this start with a 2.78 ERA, 5.07 xERA, and a 3.94 FIP in his 64.2 innings of work. As far as regression candidates go, he is one of the biggest ones out there. While his home run avoidance skills are very admirable this season, his 14.6% K% does not suggest any sustainability to what he is doing.
We’ve seen it creep in a little bit of late, as he’s made eight starts since May 5 and allowed four runs in his first four starts and now 13 in his last four starts. Over his last 21.2 innings pitched, his ERA is 4.98 with a 5.86 FIP, as he’s allowed four homers and has just 13 strikeouts against nine walks. He’s also allowed a 45.3% Hard Hit% in that span and given up seven barrels, with three in a start twice.
Schmidt, meanwhile, has a 4.65 ERA with a 4.37 xERA, and a 4.28 FIP in his 71.2 innings, but he’s been pitching better as of late. The Yankees have figured out how to harness his outstanding spin rates and he has allowed just nine runs over his last six starts for a 2.56 ERA with a 3.78 FIP. He sure seems to be going in the opposite direction of Dunning, but Schmidt’s K% is also down from where it was earlier in the season and he’s run a .281 BABIP with an 85.4% LOB% in his last 31.2 innings. You wonder about the sustainability of that for a guy who has a 44.2% Hard Hit%, even if it has gotten better thanks to his recent outings.
In that span, Schmidt has faced the Red Sox twice, White Sox, Mariners, Orioles, and Reds before they became the team that they are now, so this is a really interesting matchup against the Rangers.
I’m just not sure I can lock in on a side. I do trust that Dunning has regression coming once again, but the watered-down Yankees lineup is tough to back not knowing which version of Schmidt shows up. Rain is also a possibility here and could come in the middle innings to knock out both starters with a delay, so that creates another layer of uncertainty.
Seattle Mariners (-120, 8.5) at Baltimore Orioles
Logan Gilbert and Kyle Gibson come together here, as we see another day in which the Mariners are getting some love and their starting pitcher is held in high regard. I feel like Gilbert & Gibby sounds like some sort of ABC sitcom, but it’s actually one of the better pitching matchups of the day on a really, really weak slate for hurlers.
Gilbert heads to Oriole Park with a 4.31 ERA, but his 3.64 xERA and 3.60 FIP suggest better fortunes on the horizon. He’s struck out 26% of batters faced with just a 5% BB%, but he has a 63.7% LOB%, so his ERA has taken a hit. Gilbert certainly has reverse Cluster Luck this season with a .244 wOBA with the bases empty and a 63/5 K/BB ratio compared to a .363 wOBA with men on base and a 21/11 K/BB ratio and a .354 wOBA against with RISP with a 12/7 K/BB ratio. So, maybe it isn’t all bad luck. It may be a mechanical error from the stretch that the Mariners have yet to solve. It could always just boil down to execution in those important spots.
Whatever the case, Gilbert has been able to limit the damage because he has a .275 BABIP and a very low walk rate, but when runners get on, things get tricky for him. He’s allowed seven runs twice in his last four starts and has given up seven of his 11 homers in his last six starts. He’s also seen a steep decrease in SwStr% over his last four starts against the Yankees, Padres, Angels, and White Sox, though he did get it back a bit against the White Sox, but they’re a terrible offense against righties.
Gilbert hasn’t gotten the same chases outside the zone in his last four starts that he has for the season. In his last four starts, he’s failed to reach his season average of 32% and even had one start under 20% against the Angels. What’s concerning is that Gilbert’s four highest games by slider usage are his last four starts, so he hasn’t gotten chases with that pitch. Opposing batters are still only hitting .189 with a .345 SLG and a 28.8% Whiff% on the pitch, but it does seem like he hasn’t been as sharp with it lately.
Gibson has worked around a 4.64 xERA this season by having the best HR/FB% of his career. He has a 3.94 ERA with a 3.81 FIP over 89 innings pitched and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts. He has a 2.92 ERA with a 3.03 FIP in that span and just a .264 BABIP against, despite a 44.9% Hard Hit%. Like so many other Orioles pitchers, Gibson has definitely been better at home with a .305 wOBA and a 3.53 ERA compared to a .317 wOBA and a 4.22 ERA on the road, but it is worth pointing out that he has only allowed four road homers, despite throwing 17.2 more innings on the MLB highway.
As much as I like Gilbert, I don’t think he deserves to be a road favorite here. Also, as I always like to consider in Baltimore games, Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista are in good shape and well-rested. I also think it’s worth noting that Baltimore is 12 games over .500 outside of the division. Smart teams are typically going to be better prepared for opponents that they don’t see often. Gibson has also added some swing and miss in his last three starts with three of his five double-digit SwStr% marks, which is important facing the Mariners.
Rain is a concern here, but I would prefer Baltimore’s bullpen over Seattle’s in the event that both starters are knocked out anyway. They’re both very good and well-rested, but relievers often have a higher K% and the Mariners strike out a lot more than the Orioles.
Pick: Orioles +100