Tennessee looks to continue its path to a top seed in the NCAA Tournament with a win over Mississippi State in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, and we offer our best Mississippi State vs. Tennessee prediction based on the best college basketball odds.
No. 9 seed Mississippi State (19-12, 8-10 SEC) lost four consecutive games to end the regular season but snapped that losing skid with a 70-60 win in the quarterfinals over LSU on Thursday.
No. 1 seed Tennessee (24-7, 14-4 SEC) had a seven-game winning streak snapped in its regular-season finale with a home loss to Kentucky. The Volunteers are looking for their second SEC Tournament title this century, and second in three years, after winning in 2022.
Here is our best Mississippi State vs. Tennessee prediction and our college basketball picks (SEC Tournament odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confide nce based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee prediction
Best odds: -110 via Caesars
We were tempted to play Tennessee against the spread based on the rest factor and because it should have overwhelming crowd support in Nashville.
However, the Volunteers are just 2-3 ATS when having the rest advantage over their opponents, and this line is already inflated given this game's proximity to Tennessee's campus. Instead, we are buying low on Tennessee's offense coming off an 81-point performance against a poor Kentucky defense, especially after it scored 103 points in the first meeting with the Wildcats.
Mississippi State did an excellent job of limiting paint touches in a 77-72 home win over Tennessee earlier this season. The Volunteers attempted almost the same amount of 3-pointers (29) as twos (30), but that is not Tennessee 's bread and butter. The Volunteers shoot threes at the fifth-best rate in SEC play.
Meanwhile, the Volunteers forced the Bulldogs into 18 turnovers in their first head-to-head meeting, and we expect a similar number, given that this is a matchup of the league's best defense versus the league's worst offense in turnover rate.
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Mississippi State vs. Tennessee best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 141.5 | 141.5 | 141.5 | 141.5 |
| Under -105 | Under -110 | Under -110 | Under -110 | Under -110 |
As Under backers, we have our pick of the litter of our best sports betting sites, as all but DraftKings offers a total of 141.5. Even among the other four remaining shops, there is no discernable difference between the juice offered on either side of the total. A $10 play on the Under at all of these best sports betting apps would pay out $19.09 ($9.09 in profit).
The Under is likely to be a contrarian play by tip-off considering the Over is 5-1 after a Tennessee loss and has cashed in five of eight games in which Mississippi State was the underdog.
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee odds
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee odds analysis
There was no reported line movement on the total at any of our best sportsbooks as of Thursday night. With the juice being the standard -110 on each side of the total everywhere besides DraftKings, that suggests that oddsmakers anticipate good two-way action everywhere the line of 141.5 is offered.
There is a one-point range among the top sports betting sites with regard to the point spread. FanDuel is the only shop offering a spread of single digits (Tennessee -9.5), while the line is as high as -10.5 at BetMGM and Caesars. Mississippi State is 14-16-1 ATS this season (2-6 ATS as an underdog), while Tennessee is 16-14-1 ATS (14-11-1 ATS as a favorite).
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee game info
- When: Friday, March 15
- Tip-off: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tenn.
- How to watch: ESPN
Mississippi State-Tennessee prediction made Thursday at 9:06 p.m. ET.
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