The Rules for Handicapping Week 18
It seemed like yesterday we were preparing for Week 1 of the NFL season with preseason data, free agent transactions and past performances of the coaches to help our handicapping. We didn’t have to worry about motivation as all 32 teams were highly engaged and eager to show their stuff. Eighteen weeks later, we face a similar challenge of handicapping games, without the universal belief everyone is engaged toward winning. So many different variables make handicapping Week 18 the hardest week of the season.
One thing we can agree on is teams that cannot improve their playoff position will rest starters. Unlike the preseason, teams cannot rest everyone; the rosters are not at 80 players. Most starters will have to play, as only seven players are allowed on the inactive list. This means for teams like Baltimore, San Francisco, Cleveland and Kansas City, we won’t see their starting quarterback or any key player who has a slight injury.
Everyone else is fair game and will play with the motivation to play well. No one will back off. Baltimore has nothing to play for, but Baltimore loves to win, and with Tyler Huntley under center and their disdain for the Steelers, the Ravens absent most of their key players will play hard and want to win. Which leads us to our first rule of handicapping Week 18,
Rule 1: Don’t assume a team won’t try.