In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing on Wednesday – I'm most likely to enter into the'$1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the'BettingPros App'and'BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-5 (+2.55 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 77-63-2 (+7.9 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 28-22
Freedman's Week 12 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 11 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our'BettingPros odds page'on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team. (For the Mexico game, the Cardinals are technically the home team.)
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DET | BUF | 9.5 | 7.75 | -1.75 |
| DAL | NYG | -10 | -8.5 | 1.5 |
| MIN | NE | -2.5 | -2 | 0.5 |
| CAR | DEN | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| MIA | HOU | -13.5 | -13.75 | -0.25 |
| NYJ | CHI | -4.5 | -3.75 | 0.75 |
| CLE | TB | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 |
| JAX | BAL | 4 | 2.75 | -1.25 |
| WAS | ATL | -4.5 | -2.5 | 2 |
| TEN | CIN | 2 | 0.5 | -1.5 |
| ARI | LAC | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| SEA | LV | -3.5 | -4.5 | -1 |
| KC | LAR | -14.5 | -14.25 | 0.25 |
| SF | NO | -9.5 | -8 | 1.5 |
| PHI | GB | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 |
| IND | PIT | -2.5 | -3.5 | -1 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I'm willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Falcons +4.5 at Commanders
- Titans +2 vs. Bengals
- Seahawks -3.5 vs. Raiders
Freedman's Week 12 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV:'FOX
Falcons at Commanders: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Falcons +4.5
- Betting Percentages: Commanders – 56% bets, 75% money
Falcons at Commanders: 2022 ATS Records
- Falcons ATS: 7-4 (21.6% ROI)
- Commanders ATS: 6-4-1 (13.1% ROI)
Falcons at Commanders: Notable Trend
- QB Marcus Mariota: 6-2 ATS (43.3% ROI) as underdog with Falcons
Falcons at Commanders: Team Statistics
Falcons Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.024 | 15 | -0.051 | 7 | -8 |
| Total SR | 46.5% | 11 | 40.1% | 2 | -9 |
| Total DVOA | 6.3% | 12 | -5.8% | 12 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.055 | 15 | 0.01 | 9 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 48.6% | 10 | 42.7% | 4 | -6 |
| Pass DVOA | 13.9% | 15 | 5.3% | 16 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.6% | 30 | 7.9% | 12 | -18 |
| Rush EPA | -0.005 | 6 | -0.156 | 3 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 44.4% | 5 | 35.5% | 4 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.1% | 8 | -22.0% | 2 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.84 | 4 | 4.09 | 7 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 16 | 5.2 | 9 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 23.5 | 12 | 20.3 | 12 | 0 |
Commanders Offense vs. Falcons Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.061 | 25 | 0.079 | 28 | 3 |
| Total SR | 40.7% | 28 | 49.0% | 31 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | -13.1% | 27 | 10.8% | 28 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.051 | 26 | 0.129 | 28 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 42.4% | 28 | 52.0% | 30 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.8% | 28 | 18.4% | 28 | 0 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.3% | 20 | 4.6% | 30 | 10 |
| Rush EPA | -0.076 | 22 | 0.006 | 26 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 38.3% | 25 | 44.6% | 26 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.9% | 25 | 1.2% | 24 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.09 | 28 | 4.77 | 27 | -1 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.9 | 28 | -1 |
| Points per Game | 19.5 | 23 | 24.9 | 27 | 4 |
Falcons at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Marcus Mariota
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.087 | 15 |
| AY/A | 7.3 | 11 |
| QBR | 57.1 | 11 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.7 | 27 |
Career: Marcus Mariota
- AY/A:'7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -13.6
2022: Taylor Heinicke
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.054 | 23 |
| AY/A | 6.4 | 23 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.6 | 34 |
Career: Taylor Heinicke
- AY/A: 6.2
- QB Elo per Game: -36.0
Key Takeaway: These Teams Are Even
Many power ratings have these two teams as close to even. For example …
- Football Power Index: Commanders, -1.3 | Falcons -1.6
- Massey-Peabody Rankings: Commanders, -1.78 | Falcons -1.98
- NFElo Power Ratings: Commanders, -1.8 | Falcons -1.9
In my personal power ratings (before taking Week 12-specific injuries into account), I have the Commanders at -2 and the Falcons at -3 relative to an average team on a neutral field.
There’s not much that separates these teams, and they match up evenly.
On offense, the Commanders are No. 27 in DVOA; on defense, the Falcons are No. 28.
On defense, the Commanders are No. 12 in DVOA; on offense, the Falcons are also No. 12.
In the running and passing games, no large edges present themselves for either team.
And it’s not as if the Commanders have a remarkable home-field advantage.
I don’t see why this line should be above the key number of +3.
Best Line: Falcons +4.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Falcons +3.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Falcons +2.5
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium
- TV: CBS
Bengals at Titans: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Titans +2
- Betting Percentages: Bengals – 39% bets, 83% money
Bengals at Titans: 2022 ATS Records
- Bengals ATS: 7-3 (33.6% ROI)
- Titans ATS: 8-2 (54.1% ROI)
Bengals at Titans: Notable Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 22-12 ATS (24.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Vrabel: 9-4 ATS (32.8% ROI) as home underdog
Bengals at Titans: Team Statistics
Bengals Offense vs. Titans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.108 | 4 | -0.024 | 12 | 8 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 40.1% | 2 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | 9.0% | 8 | -8.6% | 9 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.179 | 4 | 0.035 | 12 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 50.8% | 5 | 43.6% | 8 | 3 |
| Pass DVOA | 20.2% | 10 | 2.5% | 13 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.6% | 23 | 7.3% | 18 | -5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.034 | 12 | -0.168 | 1 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 44.1% | 7 | 31.4% | 1 | -6 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.1% | 9 | -31.2% | 1 | -8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.50 | 14 | 3.45 | 1 | -13 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 12 | 5.4 | 14 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 26.5 | 3 | 18.5 | 8 | 5 |
Titans Offense vs. Bengals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.009 | 21 | -0.025 | 11 | -10 |
| Total SR | 43.2% | 19 | 42.4% | 9 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | 0.0% | 18 | -4.3% | 13 | -5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.064 | 14 | -0.033 | 7 | -7 |
| Dropback SR | 47.3% | 13 | 42.7% | 4 | -9 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.5% | 12 | -3.0% | 10 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.2% | 27 | 4.9% | 28 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.083 | 25 | -0.013 | 24 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 38.9% | 23 | 41.9% | 17 | -6 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.1% | 14 | -5.8% | 16 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.64 | 7 | 4.53 | 20 | 13 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 19 | 5.3 | 12 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 19.3 | 24 | 21.5 | 15 | -9 |
Bengals at Titans: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Joe Burrow
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.142 | 5 |
| AY/A | 8 | 7 |
| QBR | 55.7 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.7 | 5 |
Career: Joe Burrow
- AY/A: 8.0
- QB Elo per Game: 36.8
2022: Ryan Tannehill
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.106 | 10 |
| AY/A | 8.2 | 6 |
| QBR | 53.1 | 16 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 23 |
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A:'7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -4.8
Key Takeaway: The Titans Have the Peripheral Edge
I have the Bengals rated two points higher (before adjusting for Week 12-specific injuries) — but the Titans have a few factors in their favor.
First, they have three extra days of rest after playing last week on Thursday Night Football — and HC Mike Vrabel is 9-0 ATS with 10-plus days between games in the regular season.
Additionally, Vrabel’s Titans have been strong as underdogs (22-12 ATS), as noted above, and they’ve been especially strong as home dogs (9-4 ATS).
Finally, the Titans have had an unreal home-field advantage of 7.02 points over the past 16 weeks (per NFElo). Now, I’m certainly not assigning them a home-field advantage that strong. Regression will strike eventually.
But Nissan Stadium has not been an easy place to play for visitors since the Titans’ stretch run last year, and that shouldn’t be ignored.
Put all of that together, and I have this game as close to a pick’em.
Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-112, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-112)
Personal Projection: Titans +0.5
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Lumen Field
- TV: CBS
Raiders at Seahawks: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Seahawks -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Seahawks – 68% bets, 71% money