The Cincinnati Reds host the Miami Marlins in a series finale at 12:35 p.m. ET on Thursday. Cincinnati is listed as a -135 favorite (risk $135 to win $100) at Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is set at 9.5 (see up-to-date'odds for every game this week on our MLB odds page). Before making any Marlins vs. Reds picks, you NEED to check out the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 284-243 on top-rated MLB money-line pic ks since the start of the 2021 season, returning over $400 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.
The model knows the Marlins lead the National League in stolen bases, and Miami is fully capable of putting pressure on Cincinnati with speed. Miami is also facing a struggling Reds bullpen. Cincinnati's relievers are last in the National League with an ERA over 5.00 this season, and the Reds also rank last in the NL in wins above replacement from relief pitchers. Cincinnati's bullpen has a combined ground ball rate below 40 percent with more than four walks per nine innings.
The model also knows the Reds have a quality starter in Graham Ashcraft. The 24-year-old right-hander is enjoying a strong season, issuing only 2.3 walks per nine innings and holding opponents to only 0.9 home runs per nine innings in 2022. Left-handers are struggling against Ashcraft with a .517 OPS this season. Ashcraft also owns a 3.34 ERA in starts at Great American Ball Park, and he is facing a Miami offense that is struggling.