Nothing on the sports calendar compares to the first few days of the NCAA Tournament, and we offer our top March Madness player props and best bets for Thursday's first round based on the best March Madness odds.
Thursday's 16 NCAA Tournament contests, starting at 12:15 p.m. ET, are chockfull of intrigue as legendary Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo leads his Spartans into battle in essentially a coin-flip game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
That is one of four games with a point spread of -2 or less, and two have the lower-seeded team favored (Nevada over Dayton, Drake over Washington State).Elsewhere, possible Cinderellas, No. 12 seed McNeese and No. 13 seed Samford, look to shake up the Midwest Region when facing Gonzaga and Kansas (the latter is without leading scorer Kevin McCullar), respectively.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our March Madness player props and best bets for Thursday (college basketball picks based on odds from our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's March Madness best bets
- Pelle Larsson Over 12.5 points vs. Long Beach State (+108 via FanDuel) ????
- Reed Sheppard Over 2.5 3-pointers vs. Oakland (+136 via FanDuel) ???
- DaRon Holmes Under 28.5 points + rebounds vs. Nevada (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- Rylan Jones 5+ assists vs. Kansas (+160 via bet365) ???
Check out our FanDuel promo and get one March Madness no-sweat bet.
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Thursday's March Madness schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Michigan State vs. Mississippi State | Spread: Michigan State -1.5 | Total: 130.5
- Duquesne vs. BYU | Spread: BYU -9.5 | Total: 142
- Akron vs. Creighton | Spread: Creighton -13 | Total: 141
- Long Beach State vs. Arizona | Spread: Arizona -20.5 | Total: 163.5
- Wagner vs. North Carolina | Spread: North Carolina -24.5 | Total: 133.5
- Morehead State vs. Illinois | Spread: Illinois -12 | Total: 148
- Oregon vs. South Carolina | Spread: South Carolina -1 | Total: 133
- Nevada vs. Dayton | Spread: Nevada -1 | Total: 136.5
- Colorado State vs. Texas | Spread: Texas -2.5 | Total: 145
- Oakland vs. Kentucky | Spread: Kentucky -14 | Total: 163.5
- McNeese vs. Gonzaga | Spread: Gonzaga -6.5 | Total: 150
- South Dakota State vs. Iowa State | Spread: Iowa State -16 | Total: 135
- Sai nt Peter's vs. Tennessee | Spread: Tennessee -21.5 | Total: 129.5
- NC State vs. Texas Tech | Spread: Texas Tech -5 | Total: 145.5
- Samford vs. Kansas | Spread: Kansas -7 | Total: 153
- Drake vs. Washington State | Spread: Drake -1.5 | Total: 138
March Madness betting odds pages
| March Madness Odds | March Madness Picks | Final Four Odds | March Madness MVP Odds |
| March Madness Prop Bets | March Madness Upset Picks | March Madness Bracket Guide | March Madness Bracket Predictions |
| March Madness Bracket Challenges | March Madness betting promos |
Thursday's March Madness player props
Arizona is the third-highest-scoring team in the country at 87.9 points per game but has not looked anything like an offensive juggernaut of late, averaging 64.7 points over the last three games.
However, USC and Oregon masterfully made the Wildcats play half-court offense, but Long Beach State will do anything but that, as it plays at the 29th-fastest tempo in the country.
Pelle Larsson has scored 12 or fewer points in four consecutive games, but that does not tell the whole story, as he was still in double figures in each of the team's last two low-scoring contests.
Arizona averages the third-most paint points per game (42.6) in Division I, and Larsson also has made 55% of his 3-point attempts over the last two games, so he should get plenty of opportunities to fill the stat sheet against a Beach defense that defended the 3-point line at the worst rate of any Big Sky team.
FanDuel and bet365 offer the same -120 odds for Larsson to go over his standard projected total of 12.5 points, but we prefer the value of Larsson's alternate point total at FanDuel. A winning $10 wager at FanDuel's +108 odds would pay out $20.80 as opposed to $18.33 at -120 odds.
Bet $5, Win $200 in Bonus Bets
New customers only. Deposit min. $10. Place first bet of $5+ and get $200 in Bonus Bets if wager wins (within 72 hours).
Win $200
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook betting site. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly
Kentucky's three leading scorers, Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham, and Reed Sheppard, all shoot 44.1% or better from 3-point range, which is a big reason the Wildcats rank second in the country in scoring behind Alabama. Kentucky's shooting prowess makes it a difficult matchup for Oakland, which uses a matchup zone on nearly every possession.
Reed Sheppard has made a team-high 52.5% of his 3-point attempts and shoots them at the second-highest rate. We expect him to play well off the ball and be the primary beneficiary of Dillingham's and Reeves' shot creation, just as he has the last two games when he made 10 3-pointers combined against Texas A&M and Tennessee.
The best value for this play is at FanDuel, as bet365 and DraftKings offer +130 and +135 odds, respectively, for Sheppard to make three or more 3-pointers.
DaRon Holmes became the fifth player in A-10 history to win conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in the same season. Though he averaged a combined 28.8 points and rebounds per game this season, we expect him to be the focal point of a stingy Nevada defense, which has us finding value in the Under for his points and rebounds projection.
Nevada is an excellent rim-protecting team, as its 26.2 paint points per game allowed were the fewest in the Mountain West.
Holmes is capable of stretching a defense, with at least one made 3-pointer in three of the last four games. However, we also believe regression is coming from his 30 free-throw attempts in the last two games, even if the Wolf Pack allowed free throws at the eighth-highest rate of any Mountain West team.
FanDuel charges -111 odds to back the same wager, so we are getting slightly better value by placing this bet at DraftKings.
For even better odds on this bet, you can use our exclusive DraftKings promo code and get a 64% boost for any college basketball bet.
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Terms and conditions apply
Claim $150
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook betting site. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly
Samford point guard Rylan Jones averages a team-high 4.9 assists per game, and no other Bulldogs player averages more than 2.6 assists per game on the season. Granted, Samford has not played a KenPom top-100 team since the first two games of the season, but it assists on 57.7% of its made field goals (41st in D-I). We expect “Bucky Ball” to score much more than the 55 points the Bulldogs averaged in losses to Purdue and VCU to start the season.
Jones went 18 consecutive games this season with four-plus assists from late November through the end of January and has finished with four or more assists in three of the previous four games.
Samford will look to overwhelm a limited Kansas bench (the Jayhawks rank 318th in bench minutes) by pushing the pace and maximizing possessions, especially in the altitude of Salt Lake City. In addition, Jones should draw the primary defensive assignment from Dajuan Harris, the 2023 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, which should lower his ceiling for scoring, but raise his stock for assists.
DraftKings and bet365 offer -135 odds to back Jones' Over of 3.5 assists, but if we are banking him on totaling at least four assists, the +160 price for him to end with one more assist (five or more total) is worth the stab at generous plus-money odds.
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Claim $150
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook betting site. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly
College basketball best bets made Wednesday at 6:37 a.m. ET.
North Carolina sportsbook offers
Editor's note: With North Carolina sports betting now live, check out our best North Carolina sports betting apps and the best North Carolina sportsbook promos! 21+ and present in NC. Take advantage of these pre-launch offers!
FanDuel (bet $5 get $250) | Caesars (bet $10, get $250) | bet365 (bet $5, get $200) | DraftKings (bet $5, get $250) | BetMGM (bet $5, get $150)
(21+ only. Underage persons are not allowed to wager. Gambling Problem? Call 877-718-5543 or text “morethanagamenc” to 53342.)
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)