There is no better way to start the weekend than with 16 NCAA Tournament games, and we offer our top March Madness player props and bets for Friday's first-round schedule based on the best March Madness odds.
Three of the NCAA Tournament's four top seeds take the court on Friday, with UConn, Houston, and Purdue all beginning what they hope are runs to the national championship.
Elsewhere, James Madison brings the nation's longest active winning streak (13 games) into an intriguing matchup with Wisconsin, while Duke looks to shrug off back-to-back losses and avoid an upset against Vermont.
Friday's schedule also includes an Alabama-Charleston contest with the highest projected total (currently 173.5) in an NCAA Tournament game since 1995.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our March Madness player props and best bets for Thursday (college basketball picks based on odds from our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's March Madness best bets
- Mark Sears Over 21.5 points vs. Charleston (-122 via FanDuel) ????
- Rienk Mast Over 1.5 3-pointers vs. Texas A&M (+130 via FanDuel) ???
- Danny Wolf Under 8.5 rebounds vs. Auburn (-108 via FanDuel) ????
- Rayshon Harrison Under 3.5 assists vs. Saint Mary's (-120 via DraftKings) ???
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Friday's March Madness schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Northwestern vs. Florida Atlantic | Spread: Florida Atlantic -2.5 | Total: 141.5
- Colgate vs. Baylor | Spread: Baylor -14 | Total: 138.5
- UAB vs. San Diego State | Spread: San Diego State -7 | Total: 139.5
- Western Kentucky vs. Marquette | Spread: Marquette -14.5 | Total: 158.5
- Stetson vs. UConn | Spread: UConn -26.5 | Total: 145.5
- New Mexico vs. Clemson | Spread: New Mexico -2 | Total: 152
- Yale vs. Auburn | Spread: Auburn -12.5 | Total: 140.5
- Colorado vs. Florida | Spread: Florida -1 | Total: 159.5
- Texas A&M vs. Nebraska | Spread: Nebraska -1 | Total: 147
- Vermont vs. Duke | Spread: Duke -12 | Total: 132
- Grambling State vs. Purdue | Spread: Purdue -26 | Total: 139
- Charleston vs. Alabama | Spread: Alabama -9 | Total: 173.5
- Longwood vs. Houston | Spread: Hous ton -24 | Total: 128
- James Madison vs. Wisconsin | Spread: Wisconsin -5 | Total: 145
- TCU vs. Utah State | Spread: TCU -4.5 | Total: 151
- Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's | Spread: Saint Mary's -5.5 | Total: 131.5
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Friday's March Madness player props
It's been nearly 30 years since we saw a projected total in an NCAA Tournament game as high as this Alabama-Charleston matchup, and with points likely to be scored in bunches, we are making the Over on Alabama leading scorer Mark Sears' projected total a confident four-star play.
Sears averages 21.1 points per game but has scored 22 or more points in five consecutive contests, and he's eclipsed this projected total in nine of his previous 12 games against NCAA Tournament competition.
Sears ranked in the top 10 of the SEC in effective field-goal percentage despite being a volume shooter (he takes 24.8% of his team's shots), and he should have his way against a Charleston defense that ranked seventh or worse in CAA play in effective field-goal percentage defense and defending the 3-point line.
We do not mind paying up slightly for FanDuel's price of -122, as our other best sports betting sites offer a slightly higher 22.5-point O/U.
A $10 wager at these odds at FanDuel pays out $18.20, which is worth an extra point on the line compared to an $18.70 payout at bet365's -115 odds.
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Nebraska's offense scorched the nets over the last three games in wins over Michigan and Indiana, and that's what led to a 15-point second-half lead in its eventual Big Ten Tournament loss to Illinois. The Cornhuskers rank 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency in that span, per Bart Torvik, and a big reason is their ability to pull opposing big men away from the paint with center Rienk Mast's ability to stretch the floor.
Mast's eight 3-point attempts in the Big Ten Tournament semifinal were his most in 10 games, and he has made multiple threes in two of the last five, and eight of 19 Big Ten games.
Texas A&M plays one of the most compact defenses in the country, ranking 24th in Haslametrics' near-proximity defense, and it allows opponents to score the 10th-highest percentage of their points from beyond the arc (37.4%).
Getting plus-money odds on Mast to make multiple threes seems like a steal, and the value at FanDuel is enticing, considering our other best sports betting apps offer around +115 odds for the same wager.
Yale's Danny Wolf is coming off a 13-rebound performance in the Ivy League championship game, which is tied for his highest rebounding output in the last 13 games. Wolf has been a menace on the offensive glass, with three or more offensive rebounds in two of the previous five games.
However, he is going against arguably the most athletic frontcourt tandem in the country in Auburn's Jaylin Williams and Johni Broome, and the latter ranks third among all players in EvanMiya's DBPR (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating).
Thus, Wolf is more likely to play out on the perimeter and be used more in ball screens to free up Yale's guards, which lowers his ceiling considerably since he will not be roaming the paint much.
This is a contrarian four-star play, as Wolf has grabbed eight or fewer rebounds in just two of the previous 12 games. Our other best sportsbooks offer a price of -115 to back the Under, which makes FanDuel our go-to sportsbook for this play.
Grand Canyon point guard Rayshon Harrison averages a team-high 3.9 assists per game and has totaled four or more assists in four of the last five. However, he now runs up against a Saint Mary's team that plays at the fifth-slowest tempo in the country. And with the Gaels allowing the second-fewest points per game in D-I (58.7), baskets will be hard to come by for the Antelopes to assist on.
The WAC is not known as an outstanding defensive conference, as just one team other than Grand Canyon ranks in the top-70 of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Antelopes also attempt free throws at the fifth-highest rate in the country, so we would not be surprised to see them take advantage of whatever defensive matchups they can by playing isolation basketball, which will lower Harrison's ceiling for assists considerably.
Our other sites with the best sportsbook promos have odds as high as -136 for the Under on this wager, so we are getting a steal in comparison with DraftKings' price of -120.
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College basketball best bets made Thursday at 6:41 a.m. ET.
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