The NCAA Tournament Round of 64 continues with 16 must-watch matchups. Read on for our March Madness best bets for Friday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Just one No. 1 seed (Purdue) and one No. 2 seed (Marquette) are in action, as Friday's March Madness slate offers us more of a glimpse at potential sleepers and Cinderellas.
Here are our March Madness best bets for Friday (odds via PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's March Madness schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- USC vs. Michigan State (-2)
- Kennesaw State vs. Xavier (-12.5)
- UCSB vs. Baylor (-10.5)
- VCU vs. Saint Mary's (-4)
- Vermont vs. Marquette (-10.5)
- Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State (-4.5)
- NC State vs. Creighton (-5)
- Iona vs. UConn (-9)
- Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue (-23)
- Providence vs. Kentucky (-4)
- Drake vs. Miami-Florida (-2)
- Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga (-15.5)
- FAU vs. Memphis (-2)
- Montana State vs. Kansas State (-8)
- Kent State vs. Indiana (-4.5)
- Arizona State vs. TCU (-5.5)
March Madness best bets for Friday
- Spread: VCU +4.5 vs. Saint Mary's (-108 via WynnBet) ????
- Moneyline: Michigan State ML vs. USC (-130 via PointsBet) ???
- Total: Miami (FL)-Drake Over 146 (-110 via Caesars) ????
- Upset: Kent State ML vs. Indiana (+165 via DraftKings) ???
March Madness top picks
Saint Mary's got the short end of the stick, not just because it was shipped to Albany for the first two rounds but also because VCU plays the exact brand of basketball that gives the Gaels fits.
VCU likes to extend pressure defensively to speed up games, and two instances that come to mind when Saint Mary's was exposed by such pressure were in the second meeting against Gonzaga (lost by nine) and against BYU, where they nearly squandered a 13-point lead with under eight minutes to play. The Rams force turnovers at the sixth-highest rate nationally and have Atlantic 10 Defensive Player of the Year Ace Baldwin Jr. to disrupt the ball-screen action that the Gaels like to run with guards Aidan Mahaney and Logan Johnson.
While BetMGM and FanDuel offer the same +4.5 spread as WynnBet, the other two charge -115 in juice, making Wynn our go-to shop as VCU backers.
Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is back in his comfort zone in the NCAA Tournament, where he is 28-22-1 against the spread since 2004. And while USC head coach Andy Enfield put Florida Gulf Coast on the map with a surprising Sweet 16 run in 2013, a significant coaching edge goes to the Spartans.
Michigan State is not considered an aesthetically pleasing offensive team. Still, its assist-to-turnover ratio is 14th-best among Division I teams, and it is the country's fourth-best 3-point shooting team (39.5%). The latter statistic is essential when facing a Trojans team that walls off the paint and allows the second-lowest percentage from inside the arc (42.4%).
USC's offense is heavily reliant upon point guard Boogie Ellis' production. Ellis has made multiple 3-pointers in seven consecutive games and is shooting 46.7% from beyond the arc (28-of-60) in that span. However, the Spartans held NCAA Tournament point guards like Jahvon Quinerly (1-of-3), Jalen Pickett (1-of-5), Jahmir Young (1-of-5), Jalen Hood-Schifino (0-of-3), and Braden Smith (0-of-2) to minimal pr oduction from 3-point range. Ellis ranked in the top seven in Pac-12 play in the percentage of his team's shots, possession percentage, and offensive rating (per KenPom). Thus, this is a three-star play as we expect Michigan State to cut the head off the snake and lower USC's offensive ceiling by neutralizing Ellis.
PointsBet is one of two sportsbooks offering moneyline odds as low as -130, with all others at -135 or higher.
One of the more significant injuries to keep track of early in the NCAA Tournament is Miami forward Norchad Omier's ankle injury. The Hurricanes are already a below-average defensive team by NCAA Tournament standards 132nd in adjusted defensive efficiency), and the potential loss of Omier means a big game could be in store for Drake center Darnell Brodie (8.8 points, 7.3 rebounds per game). However, without Omier, look for the Hurricanes to utilize their spread attack even more with thei r bevy of penetrating guards, consistently finding the best defensive matchup to expose each possession.
This is a solid four-star play as Drake is 16-2 straight up since scoring 49 points in back-to-back games in early January and is averaging 1.23 points per possession in that stretch. The Over went 10-2 in the first 12 games after that poor stretch, but we are not worried that the Under has cashed in each of Drake's last six, as conference familiarity had much to do with that.
Caesars is one of two sportsbooks (PointsBet the other) offering a total of 146, but we would play this number up to 146.5, where all competing sportsbooks are at the moment.
Some high seed was bound to draw the nightmare matchup of Kent State, and unfortunately for Hoosiers fans, it was Indiana. Defensively, the Golden Flashes are the perfect foil to Indiana in that they rank in the 91st percentile in frequency of post traps, which should lower the ceiling of Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis, who was the Big Ten's second-leading scorer at 20.8 points per game.
Individually, Kent State has the top seven players in the MAC, per EvanMiya's Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), and eight of the league's top 15 players in adjusted team efficiency margin.
Kent State has challenged itself in the non-conference and lost heartbreakers to Charleston, Houston, and Gonzaga by a combined 14 points. It is an experienced team with four senior starters and one we expect to prove many correct as one of this year's Cinderellas.
College basketball best bets made 3/16/2023 at 11:25 p.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- FanDuel: Get 10x Your First Bet up to $20 0 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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