The East and West regions will determine their Elite Eight matchups with four exciting Sweet 16 games on Thursday's slate. Read on for our March Madness best bets and expert picks for the Sweet 16 based on the top NCAAB odds.
The theme of the NCAA Tournament thus far has been low-scoring basketball. Unders have cashed in 35 of the 52 games played (67.3%), the highest percentage of Unders through the Round of 32 in the last 30 years. Will that trend continue in the Sweet 16?
Here are our March Madness best bets and expert picks for the Sweet 16 (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sweet 16 March Madness schedule and odds
(odds courtesy of Caesars)
- Michigan State (-1.5) vs. Kansas State
- Arkansas vs. UConn (-4)
- Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee (-5)
- Gonzaga vs. UCLA (-1.5)
- San Diego State vs. Alabama (-7.5)
- Miami vs. Houston (-7)
- Princeton vs. Creighton (-9.5)
- Texas (-4)
March Madness best bets for the Sweet 16
- Spread: Florida Atlantic +5.5 vs. Tennessee (-105 via BetMGM) ????
- Spread: Arkansas +4.5 vs. UConn (-110 via DraftKings) ???
- Moneyline: Michigan State ML vs. Kansas State (-122 via FanDuel) ???
- Upset: Gonzaga ML vs. UCLA (+115 via FanDuel) ???
March Madness best bets
There may not have been a bigger snub off the list of finalists for the Naismith Men's Basketball Coach of the Year than Florida Atlantic head coach Dusty May. May has not had a losing season since taking over as Florida Atlantic's head coach in 2019 after he inherited a program in disarray. FAU had just one win ning season in the 11 years before his arrival.
Ball security will be a big key in this contest, and we do not trust the Volunteers as much in this department, as they have 76 assists and 63 turnovers in five games since losing starting point guard Zakai Zeigler to a season-ending knee injury. Meanwhile, the Owls showed extreme poise by committing just seven turnovers in the face of FDU's harassing full-court pressure.
Check out our Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee prediction
This is a confident four-star play as Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has not performed well in a favorite role, going 16-26-1 ATS as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament. In addition, per Chris Fallica on Twitter, in the last seven instances of a team seeded eighth or lower facing a non-top-three seed in the Sweet 16, the lower-seeded team is 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU.
Tennessee is still a modest 3-2 SU without Zeigler. Thus, we are going against the grain with a contrarian play on the underdog Owls (FAU has received just 36% of point spread wagers) and are headed to BetMGM for this wager as it is the only sportsbook offering +5.5 at less than the standard -110 juice.
UConn opened as s 4-point favorite over Arkansas at DraftKings but has since lowered to -3.5 despite 74% of the bets backing the favorites. That reverse line movement is likely due to the 57/43 split on the handle, and we are happy to support the underdogs and side with the sharps.
ShotQuality graded UConn's 15-point win over Saint Mary's as a 10-point loss and projected Saint Mary's to win the same contest 84% of the time with the same quality of shots taken. The Huskies benefitted from some bad injury luck from the Gaels, as forward Alex Ducas, the team's third-leading scorer (12.5 points per game) and leading 3 -point shooter (41.4%), was limited to 15 minutes after suffering a back injury.
Check out our Arkansas vs. UConn prediction
This is a contrarian three-star play, as Arkansas is built to expose UConn's biggest weakness. The Razorbacks rank 63rd nationally by forcing turnovers on 20.3% of opponents' possessions. In comparison, the Huskies rank 234th in turnover rate (18.8%). The line movement has gone away from Arkansas after the Razorbacks were +3.5 for most of the week, but we will gladly take an extra point while backing the underdogs.
KenPom projects Kansas State to emerge victorious 70-69, but there are enough intangibles that tilt this “coin-flip” in favor of Michigan State, starting with the man roaming the sidelines. Spartans head coach Tom Izzo's 15 trips to the Sweet 16 are tied for sixth all-time and are the second-most of any team in the previous 25 NCAA Tour naments. In addition, his .701 winning percentage (54-23 record) is third among active head coaches who have coached in a minimum of 20 NCAA Tournament games. Lastly, per CBS Sports research, Izzo has won a record 16 games in the NCAA Tournament as the lower-seeded team.
Check out our Michigan State vs. Kansas State prediction
In addition to Izzo's genius on the sidelines, this is a three-star play as we expect the Spartans to thwart Kansas State's up-tempo attack. While the Wildcats rank 41st in the country in adjusted tempo (and played at the Big 12's fastest pace), Michigan State ranks in the top 25 in transition denial rate per hoop-math.
Gonzaga owns the nation's longest active winning streak at 11 games. And while several of those wins were against lower-tier West Coast Conference teams, how the Bulldogs have matched up against UCLA in their last two meetings is why we like them to pull an upset.
Check out our Gonzaga vs. UCLA prediction
Gonzaga averaged 88 points and 1.22 points per possession in the 2021 Final Four meeting and the early non-conference tilt in 2022 (coincidentally played on the same court as this game) against Mick Cronin's stingy defense. There were 145 possessions combined in those games, and there is no reason to believe Bulldogs head coach Mark Few won't successfully impose his team's fast tempo in this game. In addition, this is a three-star play as UCLA does not get to the free-throw line often enough (it ranks 302nd in free-throw rate) and thus should not expose Gonzaga's limited depth, which ranks 314th in bench minutes.
There is little variability among Gonzaga's moneyline odds, as the Bulldogs are only as low as +110 via PointsBet, giving bettors the pick of the litter of which sportsbook to head to.
College basketball best bets made 3/23/2023 at 6:17 a.m. ET.
Sweet 16 expert picks
Sweet 16 expert picks made by Mike Spector, Phil Wood, and Shane Jackson
| Mike Spector | Phil Wood | Shane Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| Tyson Walker Over 15.5 points (+100 via DraftKings) ???? | Miami +7 (-105 via DraftKings) ???? | San Diego State +7.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ????? |
Walker will revel on the big stage of Madison Square Garden while returning to his New York roots, as he grew up in Westbury and played high school basketball at Christ the King in Queens. Walker topped this projected total four times in his last seven games, scoring 23-plus points in three of those outings. We expect Spartans head coach Tom Izzo to lean heavily on his senior playmaker. Michigan State runs pick-and-roll at the 42nd-highest rate in the country (per Synergy) and attempts the seventh-most mid-range jump shots as a team.
Kansas State will likely have the 5-foot-8 Markquis Nowell defending Walker and will thus not be bothered by length on his jump shots. Backcourt mate A.J. Hoggard has averaged 4.5 assists through two NCAA Tournament games. We expect him to continue to be more of a pass-first player, which should benefit Walker's scoring potential, especially on off-the-b all action. – Spector
I absolutely love the Canes as 7-point underdogs against Houston. It's confusing to see this line so large considering what the Canes did to the Indiana Hoosiers in the second round. Meanwhile, the Cougars got a lot of help from 17 missed free throws by the Auburn Tigers.
The Hurricanes were a popular pick to lose in the first round, then they were a popular pick to lose in the second. They're still here, and while they will be facing their toughest opponent yet, this isn't a terrible matchup for Miami.
The Cougars are a defensive-minded team, but the Hurricanes' offense is good enough to score on anyone. Miami can win this game outright. But even if the Hurricanes lose, this is going to be a low-scoring game. The Hurricanes lost exactly one game by more than seven points this season, and that was in November. They should stay withi n this spread from start to finish. – Wood
This line touched as high as 8 earlier this week, when I grabbed it, but this spread is playable at anything +7 or better. I make this line 5.5, KenPom sets it at 6, and ShotQuality actually has a 2.4-point margin between these two teams. We are getting a favorable number here due to the Crimson Tide's impressive play in the opening weekend.
But San Diego State is arguably best equipped to limit Alabama as much as anyone in this entire region. According to Bart Torvik, the Aztecs have had the top-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency in the country since Jan. 15. They defend the 3-point range at the fourth-best clip in the sport, while also having a knack for halting teams in transition.
Alabama wants to beat teams with the 3-ball and take advantage of easy opportunities in transition. The Crimson Tide attempt the eighth-most 3-pointers in the nation and are getting 36.8% o f their production from there. They are also fifth in adjusted tempo compared to San Diego State's pace of 263rd.
This matchup is clearly a showdown between contrasting styles, and perhaps Alabama's talent ultimately prevails in this one. That isn't going to stop me from taking the points and betting on San Diego State to keep this within striking distance. For my first five-star bet of the college hoops season, I'm riding with my Aztecs. – Jackson
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