The No. 1 Houston Cougars begin their NCAA Tournament with a contest against the long-shot Longwood Lancers and we dive into our Longwood vs. Houston player props and prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
The 16th-seeded Longwood Lancers clinched a March Madness berth by winning their conference tournament, despite finishing fifth in the regular season in the Big South. However, they face a formidable task in the tournament's opening round against the top-seeded Houston Cougars, who are considered one of the favorites in the South Region according to March Madness odds.
The Cougars have had a dominant season and are +125 in the Final Four odds due to their suffocating defense and strong senior guard combination.
Houston will look to make a statement in their opening NCAA Tournament game. Our best sports betting apps have Houston h eavily favored by more than 20 points against the Lancers.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Longwood vs. Houston prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Longwood vs. Houston odds
Longwood (16) vs. Houston (1) prediction: South Region
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel
Few teams in the country play smothering defense the way the Cougars have this season. Houston is ranked second in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and allows the fewest points per game in the county (57.0).
Though Kelvin Sampson's defense is the reason the Cougars are among the March Madness odds favorites, they go into the first round of the NCAA Tournament with a 30-4 record, in part because of gu ard Jamal Shead's scoring ability.
The senior star for Houston won Big 12 Player of the Year this season after ranking No. 1 in the conference in both OBPR and DBPR, per EvanMiya. So while his defense gets the headlines, he can be just as impactful on the offensive end, and he showed that down the stretch.
Shead is averaging 13.1 points per game this season, but in Big 12 play that average jumps up to 15.7 – that's in a conference with six of the top-25 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 10 of the top 50.
The Lancers haven't faced a guard this season as explosive attacking the rim as Shead is, and though they're holding teams to just 67.9 points per game, they've benefited from a weak schedule. Longwood's schedule ranks 283rd in the country in strength of schedule rating and its defense is 146th in adjusted efficiency.
Longwood was particularly bad on def ense in conference play, during which it allowed Big South opponents to shoot 47.6% from the floor, 54.9% from two, and 36.8% from three. Shead will be able to exploit this defense and rack up the points, especially after leading the Cougars in minutes (34.7) and shots (13.9) in Big 12 games this season.
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Longwood vs. Houston best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shead Over 14.5 points | Shead Over 14.5 points | N/A | N/A | Shead Over 14.5 points |
| -130 | -115 | N/A | N/A | -120 |
With three of our best sports betting apps offering player props on this game at the time of writing, we love the value at FanDuel.
This line could easily be as short as -130 across the board with the way Houston is expected to outmatch Longwood on the hardwood. We'd be willing to take bet365's -120 line but wouldn't take the Over with odds shorter than that, nor a point total above 15.5.
The -130 odds at DraftKings imply a 56.52% probability that Shead finishes with at least 15 points, according to our odds calculator. But we're getting better value with the line at -115, meaning a $10 bet would lead to an $8.70 profit.
Longwood vs. Houston spread & Over/Under analysis
Our best live betting sites opened with the Cougars favored by 23 to 24 points with all of our best books now listing Houston -24.5. Despite a No. 1 seed fa lling in last year's tournament, we don't think it will happen again here with Houston's dominant defense – this line could even shift another point in the Cougars' direction. Houston is 16-16-2 ATS this season while Longwood is 16-15.
Due to the Cougars' defense being the best in the country, the game total opened as low as 126.5 at BetMGM. It's since come up to 128 at our best sportsbooks, but we wouldn't expect it to move more than another point in either direction. The Cougars are 20-14 betting the Under this season and Longwood is 14-17.
Longwood vs. Houston game info
- When: Friday, March 22
- Tip-off: 9:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.
- How to watch: TNT
Longwood-Houston prediction made Tuesday at 10:20 a.m. ET.
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