Sometimes the easiest solution is the best solution—in business and the NFL. Trust me, I am not the first person to make this observation.
During the 14th century, a friar named William of Ockham developed a principle, which is today known as “Occam’s Razor.” The principle states that if you have two competing ideas to explain the same phenomenon, you should prefer the simpler one. Case in point, teams looking for their future franchise quarterback—specifically, the Colts. The Colts have the fourth pick overall in the draft, and a huge need to find their franchise quarterback. Indy fans have been spoiled. First, they watched Peyton Manning dominate; then when Manning gets injured, Andrew Luck is awaiting them at the top of the draft. Since Luck retired, so has the Colts' luck, no pun intended.
The two competing ideas: Do the Colts trade for a proven commodity or take a chance on a rookie who may or may not be great? With the Colts being in the unlucky position of picking 4th overall, there is less of a guarantee they select their future quarterback. Signing Lamar Jackson to a long-term contract may not be simple, yet simpler than believing Will Levis of Kentucky or Anthony Richardson of Florida will carry a franchise. Jackson is the costly simple solution. Trading up or selecting either quarterback requires substantial risk—it might appear simpler, but one decision is certain, and the other is completely unknown. The Colts cannot afford to get this wrong. They need a sure thing, and the only sure thing is Jackson, and this includes Bryce Young or CJ Stroud.